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#223. Trading with the (common) enemy
#223. Trading with the (common) enemy THE SHARED CONSEQUENCES OF RESOURCE CONSTRAINTThe tragedy unfolding in Ukraine, as well as being horrific in itself, has brought us face-to-face with a brutal fact whose reality we’ve always, hitherto, managed to ignore. This fact is that the world has become accustomed to a standard of living that its energy resources […]
Will World Trade Collapse After America Withdraws From WTO? Don’t Bet on It!
Will World Trade Collapse After America Withdraws From WTO? Don’t Bet on It! With Trump slapping tariffs right, left and center on friends and foes alike, and threatening to withdraw America from WTO, concerns about declining global trade have heightened. Trading nations like China and Japan are wary and worried about the prospects for world […]
These 4 Charts Show How World Trade Has Collapsed In Just One Year
These 4 Charts Show How World Trade Has Collapsed In Just One Year Lately, nothing seems able to shake Wall Street’s bullish attitude. Investors and the mainstream continue to still ignore the worsening trade war – which is evolving into a currency war – with China. But since early May – we at Palisade have […]
China Furious After US Launches Trade War “Nuke” With 522% Duty
China Furious After US Launches Trade War “Nuke” With 522% Duty Now that China’s brief infatuation with “rationalizing” excess capacity in its massively glutted (and insolvent) steel sector is over after lasting all of 2-3 months, China is back to doing what it did in late 2015 (and what it has always done) when as […]
World Trade Collapses in Dollars, Languishes in Volume
World Trade Collapses in Dollars, Languishes in Volume This wasn’t part of the rosy scenario. The Merchandise World Trade Monitor by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a division of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, tracks global imports and exports in two measures: by volume and by unit price in US dollars. And […]
Hugh Hendry: “If China Devalues By 20% The World Is Over, Everything Hits A Wall”
Hugh Hendry: “If China Devalues By 20% The World Is Over, Everything Hits A Wall” Once upon a time Hugh Hendry was one of the world’s most prominent financial skeptics, arguing with anyone who would listen that the status quo is doomed and that central planning will never work. Most famously, back in 2010 during a BBC […]
World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis
World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis One question now dominates the global macro discussion: has subdued global growth and trade become the norm in the post-crisis world? That is, have lackluster growth and trade become structural and endemic rather than transient and cyclical? Those are the burning questions that keep central bankers (not to mention […]
“Zombie Ships” – Why Global Shipping Is Even Worse Than The Baltic Dry Suggests
“Zombie Ships” – Why Global Shipping Is Even Worse Than The Baltic Dry Suggests One glance at The Baltic Dry Index’s collapse is all that most need to see the painful state of the global shipping industry. However, as gCaptain reports, reality is even worse as the boom in so-called “zombie ships” suggests there is no recovery in […]
Nigerian Currency Collapses After Central Bank Halts Dollar Sales To Stall “Hyperinflation Monster”
Nigerian Currency Collapses After Central Bank Halts Dollar Sales To Stall “Hyperinflation Monster” Having told banks and investors “don’t panic” in September, amid spiking interbank lending rates and surging default/devaluation risks, it appears the massive shortage of dollars that we warned about in December has washed tsunami-like ashore in oil-producing Nigeria. Following the Central bank’s decision this week to halt […]
Global Trade In Freefall: China Container Freight At Record Low; Rail Traffic Tumbles, Trucking Slows Down
Global Trade In Freefall: China Container Freight At Record Low; Rail Traffic Tumbles, Trucking Slows Down Over the past year we have regularly contended that a far greater threat to the global economy than either corporate earnings, currency devaluations, rate cuts (or hikes), reserve outflow, or even the stock market, is the sudden, global trade […]
With US Warships En Route To Islands, China Asks: “What On Earth Makes Them Think We Will Tolerate This?”
With US Warships En Route To Islands, China Asks: “What On Earth Makes Them Think We Will Tolerate This?” The US is in a tough spot militarily. In Syria, Russia and Iran have taken advantage of the fact that the plan hatched by the West and its regional allies to destabilize the Assad regime took […]
Bernanke’s Balderdash
Bernanke’s Balderdash The US and world economies are drifting inexorably into the next recession owing to the deflationary collapse of commodities, capital spending and world trade. These are the inevitable “morning after” consequence of the 20-year global credit binge which has now reached its apogee. The apparent global boom during that period was actually a central bank driven excursion […]
Buiter: Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World From The Next Recession
Buiter: Only “Helicopter Money” Can Save The World From The Next Recession It is to be expected that economists – even economists working for the same team – have different views about the likelihood of different future outcomes. Economics isn’t rocket science, and even rockets frequently land in the wrong place or explode in […]
US Recession Imminent – World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis
US Recession Imminent – World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis As goes the world, so goes America (according to 30 years of historical data), and so when world trade volumes drop over 2% (the biggest drop since 2009) in the last six months to the weakest since June 2014, the “US recession imminent” […]
Central Banks Have Shot Their Wad——-Why The Casino Is In For A Rude Awakening, Part I
Central Banks Have Shot Their Wad——-Why The Casino Is In For A Rude Awakening, Part I There has been a lot of chatter in recent days about the plunge in commodity prices—–capped off by this week’s slide of the Bloomberg commodity index to levels not seen since 2002. That epochal development is captured in the chart below, but […]
