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Weekly Commentary: Anbang and China’s Mortgage Bubble

Weekly Commentary: Anbang and China’s Mortgage Bubble

The Shanghai Composite traded as high as 3,587 intraday on Monday, January 29th, a more than two-year high. This followed the S&P500’s all-time closing high (2,873) on the previous Friday. On February 9th, the Shanghai Composite traded as low as 3,063, a 14.6% decline from trading highs just nine sessions earlier. In U.S. trading on February 9th, the S&P500 posted an intraday low of 2,533, a 10.7% drop from January 26th highs. Based on Friday’s closing prices, the Shanghai Composite had recovered 43% of recent declines and the S&P500 70%.

Global equities markets demonstrated notably strong correlations during the recent selloff. Few markets, however, tracked U.S. trading closer than Chinese shares. From the Bubble analysis perspective, tight market correlations provide confirmation of the global Bubble thesis. It’s also not surprising that Chinese markets were keenly sensitive to the abrupt drop in U.S. stocks. The U.S. and China are dual linchpins to increasingly vulnerable global Bubble Dynamics. Moreover, intensifying fragilities in Chinese Credit – and finance more generally – ensure China is keenly sensitive to any indication of a faltering U.S. Bubble.

February 21 – Bloomberg: “China stopped updating its homegrown version of the VIX Index, taking another step to discourage speculation in equity-linked options after authorities tightened trading restrictions last week. State-run China Securities Index Co. didn’t publish a value for the SSE 50 ETF Volatility Index on its website Thursday. An employee who answered CSI’s inquiry line said the company stopped updating the measure to work on an upgrade. The move was designed to curb activity in the options market, said people familiar with the matter… It’s unclear when the index will resume.”

Derivatives rule the world. Of course, Chinese authorities had few issues with booming options trading when markets were posting gains. Here in the U.S., regulators will supposedly now keep a more watchful eye on VIX-related products.

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charles hugh smith-The Rubber Band Is Stretched–Will It Break?

charles hugh smith-The Rubber Band Is Stretched–Will It Break?.

A rubber band can remain stretched for some time, but it takes some force to keep it stretched.

The consensus is anticipating a smooth sleigh ride for Santa’s traditional stock market rally from November to year-end. But the rubber band of the current rally is looking quite stretched, and there’s a distinct possibility the rubber band snaps and Santa’s rally hits a rough patch and overturns, distributing lumps of coal rather than additional equity gains.

Exhibit 1: The Russell 2000 index (RUT). It’s hard not to notice that MACD is about to cross in a bearish signal, and that the stochastic has already crossed and is heading south.

Then there’s the open gaps below, which tend to get filled despite endless claims that “this rally is different.” Yes, of course it is.

At the previous top, the RUT noodled around in a trading range for a couple of weeks, reaching for a breakout that quickly failed.

The RUT has repeated the pattern rather neatly: two weeks of going nowhere (a.k.a. distribution), and a breakout that quickly reversed.

It’s also interesting that the RUT’s runs seem to last around 20 days or so. The downturn in October lasted about 22 days, and the current run-up is stretched tight at 24 days.

Exhibit 2: the volatility index (VIX). As Zero Hedge has noted, the VIX exhibits a peculiarity at the close of each trading session: it drops precipitously in the waning minutes of trading, and equally magically, stocks pop up to close positive for the day.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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