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Vancouver Home Prices Turn Negative, First Time Since 2013

The sudden shift in the Vancouver housing market has been well documented. In November, home sales across all property types sank to a ten year low for the month. The drop is rather unprecedented considering the current economic backdrop suggests unemployment across Canada has plunged to a 42 year low. And while unemployment may be a lagging indicator, the housing market is certainly not. Of the components of GDP, residential investment offers by far the best early warning sign of an oncoming recession.

So too does the yield curve, which continues to flatten. Earlier this week the Canada 2 and 5 year bond yields inverted, the first time since 2007. A flat or inverted yield curve is when short term rates exceed long-term rates. This is often taken as a signal that investors are more optimistic about short-term prospects versus the long term, suggesting a lack of confidence in continued economic growth. This can also impact bank profitability, as banks pay short-term rates on deposits and take in long-term rates on loans. A flat or inverted yield curve, therefore, could lead to negative net interest margins.

In simpler terms, this can cause bank lending to further tighter, leaving borrowers high and dry when market liquidity is most needed.

Canada 2/5 yield spread.

While the resulting slowdown from bank lending can most easily be seen in the decline of sales volumes, it is now more noticeably reflecting in home prices.

The detached home price has now dipped 8.5% from last year, the largest decline since late 2009.

detached prices Vancouver
Year-Over-Year price change in the Vancouver detached MLS benchmark price.

Meanwhile, the resilient condo market has finally dipped into negative territory as well, dropping 1.8% year-over-year in November, the first negative reading since October 2013.

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CMHC Finds Irrational Exuberance in Vancouver & Toronto

There is much to learn from financial mania’s. In particular, the role of human behaviour responsible for inflating asset prices to previously unimaginable heights. Economist Robert Schiller has done some excellent work on this topic in his book Irrational Exuberance.

In essence, Schiller highlights a few key themes. Mainly that real estate booms seem just as mysterious and hard to understand as the stock market booms when they happen, there are always popular explanations for them- explanations that are not necessarily correct, but people love a good story. Meanwhile, higher prices tend to drive a positive feedback loop where initial price increases lead to more price increases as the effects of the initial price increases feedback into yet higher prices through increased investor demand. This second round of price increases feeds back again into a third and then a fourth round, and so on.

A recent publication from CMHC highlights strong human behaviour dynamics have been playing out in the Vancouver & Toronto Real Estate markets. After surveying 30,000 recent homebuyers, CMHC found evidence of euphoric and perhaps irrational behaviour.

For instance, respondents were asked about whether how much they paid was aligned with their plan budget. Respondents were also asked about a series of choices regarding location, size and timing of purchase. Choices all potential homebuyers must consider before buying a home in both Vancouver and Toronto, 48% of homebuyers respectively spent more than they budgeted.

CMHC believes home buyers may have experienced a fear of missing out, citing that homebuyers measure the value of a home through rule of thumb mechanisms like, “it’s a hot market, I can’t miss out, it’s really tight right now-will have to revise our budget if we want to get in”  all of which are phrases pushing homebuyers to overvalue an investment.

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Canadian Housing Affordability Hits 27 Year Low

Real Estate Hasn’t Been this Unaffordable Since 1990 per RBC

Nothing says Merry Christmas like a 27 year low for Canadian housing affordability. That’s right, real estate across Canada has not been this un affordable since the year 1990 per RBC. Spoiler alert house prices tumbled shortly thereafter.

RBC Bank released their updated Q3 numbers for housing affordability. To no surprise, Vancouver leads the nation in the most unaffordable market to buy a home. Followed by Toronto and then Victoria.

“The deterioration in the latest two quarters, in fact, put Vancouver buyers in the worst affordability position ever recorded in Canada.”

RBC housing affordability
Source: RBC

Vancouver Un affordability Sets New High In Canada

“The area experienced the sharpest affordability drop among Canada’s major markets between the second and third quarters. RBC’s aggregate measure surged by 5.3 percentage points to 87.5%. This represents a new record high for any market in Canada. We see further downside to Vancouver’s home ownership rate in the period ahead. The rate fell from 65.5% in 2011 to 63.7% in 2016.”

Vancouver housing affordability
Source: RBC – Vancouver housing affordability Q3 2017

High Un affordability Tends to Lead to Recessions

What RBC didn’t mention in their report is the correlation between elevated house prices that cause affordability issues and recessions. When too much household money is spent servicing mortgage payments it eventually becomes a drag on consumer spending and ultimately triggers a recession.

Canadian house prices and recessions
Source: Better Dwelling

This is not to suggest a recession is imminent. But when the percent of income the median family would have to use to service debt pushes above 50% in Toronto and Vancouver, a recession typically follows in Canada. Currently Toronto is at 71.7%, and Vancouver is at 79.87%.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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