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The history of oil and natural gas is marred by instability and conflict. The rise of the Eastern Mediterranean as a prolific energy region has increased existing tensions between certain littoral states while strengthening cooperation between others. The ratification of the charter concerning the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) further cements the importance of gas exporting countries in general and Egypt in particular.

In a political and economic sense, Cairo has succeeded in strengthening the country’s position as a major producer and exporter of gas while highlighting its role as an energy hub. Egypt’s large domestic market, significant production capacity, and strategic location make it an ideal candidate to host the EMGF’s headquarters in Cairo.

Besides the economic logic, Egypt’s growing population requires ever-larger volumes of raw materials to satisfy demand. Therefore, liquidity and access to additional sources are important to improve energy security. Cairo learned a lesson from the developments of 2014/2015 when domestically produced natural gas for export purposes was diverted to satisfy the exploding Egyptian demand. After becoming a net importer in 2015, the country’s two liquefaction facilities in Idku en Damietta were reconfigured for the regasification process of LNG.

The EMGF seeks to bring together the energy-rich countries of the Eastern Mediterranean through dialogue, layout policies, ensure safety and reliability to increase investments, and support growth. The charter is signed and ratified by the founding members Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, Palestine, and France. The U.S. and the EU are observers. Noticeably, Turkey has been sidelined while two European countries who are geographically not part of the region, Italy and France, are members. It show’s the hard geopolitical reality of Ankara’s isolation.

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Record-Breaking Energy Prices Could Soar Even Higher In Europe

September 12, 2021

Record-Breaking Energy Prices Could Soar Even Higher In Europe

The European electricity market is in crisis as a perfect storm is driving up prices to ever greater heights. The timing couldn’t have been worse as countries across the continent are reopening and energy demand is rising. Most signs point towards the likely continuation of the current situation while there is a chance that things could get worse. There is an opportunity to balance the electricity market towards ‘normal prices’, but that means geopolitical concessions which not everyone is willing to make.

Rising costs are a consequence of bad luck when it comes to the weather, geopolitical developments, and ambitious decarbonization policies. According to Julien Hoarau, head of EnergyScan, the analytics unit of French utility Engie, “the problem hasn’t even started yet. Europe will face a very tight winter.”

Unusually cold weather during the last heating season increased demand for natural gas that is supplied by domestic production, imports, and underground gas storage. Under normal circumstances, these storages are filled in the summer period when demand is low and prices favorable. This year’s buying season is interrupted as there is less natural gas on the market. As usual, East Asia is willing to pay a premium that draws LNG cargoes to the Far East. Russia, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to be willing to fill the gap this time.

Furthermore, Scandinavia’s electricity export capacity is drastically less than usual as drought has hit the region this summer. Several submerged cables connect hydropower-rich countries such as Norway and Sweden with the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany. However, water levels are unusually low, meaning there is less cheap electricity to export to the south.

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Finding A Way Around The World’s Largest Oil Chokepoint

December 9, 2020

Finding A Way Around The World’s Largest Oil Chokepoint

Oil is sometimes referred to as ‘black gold’. The discovery and export of fossil fuels have led to tremendous wealth creation for certain countries. In this sense, no region in the world is more blessed than the Middle East. Especially the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf are rich in oil and gas deposits. Unfortunately, political instability is almost a synonym for the Middle East. The risk of supply disruptions is a significant threat for those heavily reliant on fossil fuel sales. Therefore, risk mitigation is an important part of the business.

The antagonism between Iran and the U.S. escalated significantly under President Trump. According to sources, Washington came close to acting militarily but the President was dissuade d when informed on the risks and potential losses. Skyrocketing oil prices are one of those consequences as Tehran has repeatedly threatened to close off the Strait of Hormuz in case it is attacked. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil travels through the narrow strait separating mainland Iran from Oman and the UAE. Even a short disruption of supplies will most definitely have a devastating effect on prices. Circumventing the Strait, therefore, is essential to maintain exports to markets.

While Iran has been the most vocal when it comes to threats concerning the Strait, it has a contingency plan if the situation escalates. The country is currently building a pipeline from Goreh near the border with Iraq and Kuwait where the majority of the country’s oil is produced to Jask on the Gulf of Oman. The project is slated to be finished in March 2021 and has a capacity of one million barrels per day (mbpd).

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Is The Era Of U.S. Energy Dominance Already Over?

November 1, 2019

Is The Era Of U.S. Energy Dominance Already Over?

The global oil industry is a highly lucrative sector that is strongly influenced by geopolitical developments. As the Post-Cold War era comes to an end, a new status quo is arising. The U.S. was once the only player with the capability to significantly influence energy markets around the globe. The country’s military and global alliances proved powerful tools in controlling developments in regions such as the highly volatile Middle East. But Washington’s global reach is fading and both Russia and China are on the rise.

Moscow has become a force to reckon with in several regions due to a combination of diplomacy and energy politics. In addition to that, Washington’s foreign policy blunders have created power vacuums for other actors to take advantage, blunders such as the recent unexpected withdrawal from Northern Syria. Arguably, Russia has now become the most important power broker in the Middle East. Moscow’s plans, however, are not regional, but global. The first-ever Russia-Africa summit is a testament to the Kremlin’s global ambitions.

Moscow has also fostered strong relations with several countries in Latin America. Ever since the Monroe doctrine of 1823, the U.S. considers Central and South America as its ‘backyard’. Countries such as Venezuela, however, have resisted Washington’s power and influence. Therefore, when the rumor spread of the sale of South America’s biggest energy company to Russia’s Rosneft, panic spread in Washington of potentially another foreign policy setback.

Venezuela’s national oil company is estimated to be worth $186 billion and is the country’s economic engine. The Orinoco region, where the majority of the country’s oil is produced, contains approximately 300 billion recoverable barrels of oil and is the biggest in the world. Despite the massive energy reserves, Venezuela is spiraling towards an economic and political meltdown.

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The Most Crucial Pipeline Of The Middle East?

June 10, 2019

The Most Crucial Pipeline Of The Middle East?

Contemporary Middle Eastern history is strongly influenced by energy politics. Besides providing revenue for the state’s coffers, oil is also a potent geopolitical tool in the hands of resource-rich countries. Recently, officials from Lebanon, Syria and Iraq have engaged in talks to restart the dysfunctional pipeline that once connected oilfields near Kirkuk in Iraq with the coastal city of Tripoli in Lebanon. Restarting the pipeline could have long-term political, economic, and strategic consequences for the involved states and the wider region.

The original infrastructure was constructed during the 30s of the previous century when two 12-inch pipes transported oil from Kirkuk to Haifa in British mandated Palestine and Tripoli in French-mandated Lebanon. The Tripoli line was supplemented by a 30-inch pipeline in the 50s which could transport approximately 400,000 barrels/day. The Kirkuk-Tripoli pipeline was suspended by Syria during the Iraq-Iran war in an attempt to support Tehran in its struggle against Baghdad.

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Paving the way

The current political climate, which has enabled cooperation between Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, is the consequence of one country’s foreign policy. Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Iranian influence has grown considerably across the Middle East. Tehran’s support for proxies in neighboring countries has strongly influenced regional politics and made Saudi Arabia nervous of what it sees as “Persian encroachment”.

The Iranian support for Syria’s President Assad provided a lifeline to the regime during the country’s civil war. Tehran has invested significantly in maintaining the position of its ally in Damascus. In neighboring Iraq, the democratization process installed a Shia-dominated parliament which is supported by powerful paramilitary groups funded and organized by the Quds force, the branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responsible for extraterritorial activities. Despite significant military and political gains, consolidation is required to cement the ties between Iran’s Arab partners, which would also benefit Tehran.

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Energy Transition Under Fire As Power Bills Soar

December 20, 2018

Energy Transition Under Fire As Power Bills Soar

For a long period of time, the energy transition was primarily a technical topic concerning the transformation of the energy grid. Technological developments and the decreasing costs of renewables have made it a viable alternative to fossil fuels. The integration, however, of these new systems requires considerable investments meaning money that directly or indirectly will be provided by ordinary citizens through taxes or their energy bill.

In most parts of Europe, the energy transition is in full swing for a carbon neutral future. The EU has set itself the goal of fulfilling at least 20 percent of its total energy needs with renewables in 2020. Currently, the percentage of renewables in the overall energy production differs between member states such as 10 percent in Malta and 49 percent in Sweden.

Denmark was one of the first countries in the EU to seriously start planning for the energy transition. Early planning, broad societal support, and political will have fostered a strong domestic energy industry. Danish company Vestas is the largest wind turbine producer in the world with approximately 16 percent of the global market share. The energy transition is not cheap which requires the allocation of precious resources that could be spent otherwise. The rising energy bill, however, threatens to derail the process in several countries.

In recent weeks, France was shaken up by major demonstrations led by the so-called ‘yellow vests’ movement which was triggered by the rising costs of living. The French government intended to raise taxes for transportation fuels in order to discourage car usage and pay for the energy transition. The protests escalated into a nationwide movement that eventually forced the government to backtrack on the intended tax hikes.

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The Biggest Winners In The Mediterranean Energy War

October 22, 2018

The Biggest Winners In The Mediterranean Energy War

Former Vice-President of the United States Dick Cheney once said: “the good lord didn’t see fit to put oil and gas only where there are democratically elected states… Occasionally we have to operate in places where, all considered, one would not normally choose to go. But we go where the business is.” Europe is surrounded by states with abundant energy resources, but supply from these countries is not always as reliable. Russia, for example, is regularly accused of using energy as a weapon. However, major discoveries of gas in the Eastern Mediterranean could mitigate dependence on Russian gas.

The discovery of a gas field named Tamar near the coast of Israel in 2009 set off a wave of investments in the energy sector. After 9 years, companies are flocking to the region after other discoveries in the territorial waters of Israel, Cyprus, and Egypt. Ever larger finds in the Mediterranean Sea’s Levant Basin such as the Leviathan gas field in 2010 and Zohr in 2015, have the potential to transform the strategic importance of the region.

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Turkey’s energy hub ambitions

Few states in the world are geographically so well positioned as Turkey. The country controls Russia’s only warm water port in the Black Sea and serves as a bridge between east and west. Therefore, during the Cold War Ankara was an indispensable member of NATO. More recently, Turkey has the ambition to become an energy hub for Middle Eastern and Caspian energy. Ankara has had mixed successes in attracting investors and maintaining political stability.

After Israel’s significant discoveries, a U.S. backed initiative presented Turkey as an energy hub. Although a land pipeline is the cheapest option to transport gas from the Mediterranean to Europe, political developments have stalled construction.

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The Perfect Storm Bringing China And Russia Together

October 12, 2018

The Perfect Storm Bringing China And Russia Together

During the Cold War, China and the Soviet Union regarded one another as strategic adversaries. Relations between Beijing and Moscow, however, have significantly improved over the years. Besides political alignment, the countries have complementary economies; China has an insatiable appetite for the raw materials which Russia has in abundance and Beijing has the financial strength to protect Moscow against the sanctions related to its annexation of Crimea.

Bilateral trade, as a consequence, has increased dramatically over the years. At the end of 2017, it stood at $80 billion, an increase of 30 percent year-on-year, with an aim to reach $200 billion by 2024. Much of this growth will need to come from energy trade, of which natural gas will likely make up a large part. An example of this natural gas growth is the Power of Siberia pipeline – which is currently nearing completion – and the Altay pipeline project which looks set to follow.

China’s booming demand for energy

The transformation of rural China a couple of decades ago into a global economic powerhouse has been admired across the globe. Even during the financial crisis of 2008, China served as a stabilizing force amid the turmoil. The Asian country’s expanding economy requires ever-larger volumes of energy to power homes and factories. Beijing’s adoption of more stringent rules to counter air pollution has created an energy revolution due to the coal-to-gas switch. This has had serious consequences for the global gas market.

Until recently, the LNG market was facing an oversupply. Growing demand in China due to its new rules on air pollution has absorbed much of the glut. According to analysts from Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., new supplies of LNG are “being easily mopped up by rampant market growth”. Political developments, however, have somewhat shifted Beijing’s focus from LNG to more pipeline gas from Russia. This has come at the right moment for Moscow as relations with its biggest customer, the EU, have deteriorated.

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Nord Stream 2’s Confusing Endgame

July 22, 2018

Nord Stream 2’s Confusing Endgame

The summer of 2018 will go into history as the moment when a US president fundamentally and decisively changed the international world order which its predecessors worked hard on during the past decades. Within approximately a week from 11 July until 16 July, President Donald Trump achieved to insult its key allies in Europe and fundamentally undermine NATO and the EU, while cozying up to what seems to be the most important adversary of the West. While this week will go into history as an arduous one for the presidency of Trump, for President Vladimir Putin, in contrast, it is one of his best since the Ukraine crisis began in 2015.

The strategic interests of Russia were met in considerable ways as its key adversaries are divided due to Trump’s bellicose and aggressive language before and during the yearly NATO summit in Brussels. The unprecedented attack on Germany during a televised lunch, which caught off-guard the host Secretary-General Stoltenberg, in many ways showcased the current administration’s interest in the financial and energy domain.

Trump claimed “Germany is totally controlled by Russia. They will be getting between 60 and 70 percent of their energy from Russia and a new pipeline.” Although this is factually untrue, Germany imports 33 percent of its gas and 40 percent oil from Russia, these statements spread confusion as to what Trump’s actual endgame is. Several options are possible as to the true intentions of these statements.

This could be a negotiating strategy of Trump by putting pressure on Germany in order of significantly increasing its defense expenditure. Although NATO leaders reaffirmed after the gathering on 12 July their commitment to the pre-Trump agreement of gradually increasing defense expenditure, the US president seems adamant on even more. Trump claimed that the remaining NATO members have agreed to increase expenditure to 4 percent instead of 2 percent. This was rebuffed by the other alliance members.

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A Storm Is Brewing In The Southern Gas Corridor

June 25, 2018

A Storm Is Brewing In The Southern Gas Corridor

No fewer than Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Turkish Cypriot President Mustafa Akinci attended a gathering in Central Turkey on 12 June. The amount and variety of attendees of this meeting reveal a common interest in one field of geopolitical developments: energy and more specifically natural gas.

The opening ceremony of the 1.850 kilometers long Trans Anatolian Pipeline, TANAP, starting at the Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan and ending in Turkey, is the last step before connecting to the European grid in Greece and Italy. TANAP is part of the Southern Gas Corridor, which was the dream of many European leaders and officials to create an alternative to Russian gas.

The attendance of several high-level dignitaries shows the interest in the pipeline and the geopolitical developments of the region. More specifically, Russia’s dominant position in the natural gas market of southeast Europe has set leaders scrambling to find alternatives or at least competition of producers.

The fraught relations between Russia and Ukraine brought these countries on a collision course. However, due to historical reasons the energy industries of Moscow and Kiev have been closely intertwined. Russia has set itself an ambitious goal of circumventing Ukraine as its main transit country for gas exports. The Turk Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, which are either planned or under construction, will carry much of the needed gas to Europe starting in 2019 when a new transit contract has to be signed with Kiev.

Ukraine intends to diversify away from and ultimately stop buying gas from Russia. The Southern Gas Corridor, therefore, is a highly anticipated alternative. The attending of Petro Poroshenko at the opening ceremony is a testament to this goal. Already Ukraine importing gas from neighbouring European countries with plans to increase domestic production of natural gas.

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The Pros And Cons Of Nord Stream 2

February 27, 2018

The Pros And Cons Of Nord Stream 2

There are few issues as divisive in the EU as the planned construction of Nord Stream 2, another direct gas infrastructure connection between Germany and the Russian Federation.

With the climate of relations between Russia and the West just above the point of freezing, the agreement between Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) and its Western counterparts Shell (NYSE:RDS-A), OMV (VIE:OMV), ENGIE (EPA:ENGI), Uniper (ETR:UN01), and Wintershall has caused critics of closer relations with Russia to mobilize.

While supporters of the project insist that it isn’t more than a commercial deal (mostly Western European countries and companies), opponents (Central and Eastern Europe) are convinced that the deal will give Moscow more unwanted influence.

Here, we’ll discuss the arguments of opponents and proponents of the proposed gas infrastructure in order to make a modest recommendation regarding Europe’s common interest.

Currently, over almost 40 percent of the gas consumed in the EU originates from Russia, making Moscow the biggest supplier, followed closely by Norway and Algeria. Even though many policy declarations were made to diversify and several serious crises involved Russia, the export of Siberian gas to Europe increased spectacularly — from 8 percent in 2017 to a record 195 bcm.

The most important reasons behind this growth are the expanding economy of the Eurozone and domestic gas fields that are producing less. Although Europe currently possesses 208 bcm of LNG capacity, of that just 51 bcm was used in 2016. Most of the capacity was idle due to much cheaper pipeline gas, especially from Russia.

Proponents, therefore, argue that Nord Stream 2’s importance will increase over the years as demand for imported gas will do the same. Furthermore, several crises over the years between Russia and Ukraine have severely damaged Europe’s energy security (and Russia’s, opponents argue). According to supporters, Nord Stream 2 will improve Europe’s position, as transit through Ukraine can be avoided and risks decreased.

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