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Shortly before US stocks suffered another triple-digit point drop at the open – dampening the cheers of traders and pundits who gleefully celebrated stocks going positive for the week on Wednesday – MSCI warned on Thursday that another double-digit drop could be in store for US stocks, Reuters reports.

Like most other analysts, Thomas Verbraken, the executive director for risk management at the research and indices giant, said his risk models suggest that a short-term drop in growth of 2 percentage points, and an attendant drop in corporate earnings, could hammer stocks even lower, erasing much (but not nearly all) of the gains since President Trump’s inauguration.

“We’ve conducted a what-if scenario analysis that assumes a short-term drop in growth of 2 percentage points and a risk-premium increase of 2 percentage points,” Thomas Verbraken, executive director at MSCI’s risk management solutions research told clients.
“Our model indicates that, in such a scenario, there’s room for further short-term losses: U.S. equities — already down 11% from Feb. 19 through March 3 – could drop a further 11%.”

Earlier this week, the OECD became the first major NGO to warn that the virus could seriously restrain global growth if the outbreak doesn’t fade with the warm spring weather, like President Trump hopes it will. The OECD said that global growth could shrink “by half” thanks to the outbreak, as the twin supply- and demand-side disruptions wreak havoc on consumption and manufacturing.

All told, two consecutive 11% drops would be equivalent to a more than 20% decline from the all-time highs, which would put the US market solidly into bear-market territory.

Most Wall Street banks have been slower to lower their equity year-end forecasts, but suffice it to say, a 20% drop would leave stocks well below where most of the big banks expect they will be at year’s end.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

There Has Been Just One Buyer Of Stocks Since The Financial Crisis

September 6, 2019

There Has Been Just One Buyer Of Stocks Since The Financial Crisis

Over the weekend we showed a chart which demonstrated that the bulk of the 21st century has been characterized by equity retail fund outflows offset by a tsunami of bond inflows, i.e. a reverse “great rotation.” The chart also illustrated that periods of “big bond inflows often preceded big policy changes”, hinting that some major event was coming; meanwhile big bond outflows (e.g. 2008/13/18) tended to coincide with the most bearish returns across asset classes, which may explain why in a time of record bond inflows, i.e., right now, stocks are trading near all time highs…

… even if it did – as we said on Sunday – pose a question: “just who is buying stocks here?”

Now, in his latest Flow Show weekly report, BofA CIO Michael Hartnett confirms that the flows continued for one more week, as another $11.4 billion flowed into bonds, while $8.4 billion was redeemed from stocks (a clear sign investors are not worried about bond bubble for now, with chunky inflows to both IG ($7.9bn) & govt bond ($3.5bn) funds).

More importantly, when looking at the bigger picture and finding $213 billion in redemptions from equity funds stands in stark contrast to $337bn inflows to bond funds; Hartnett answered our pressing question: who is buying stocks here?

His answer: “the sole buyer of US stocks remain corporate buybacks, not institutions” as shown in the chart below.

This is notable not only because it means that without the buyback bid (made possible by record cheap debt, which is used to fund corporate stock repurchases) stocks would be far, far lower, but because it is a carbon copy of what we observed almost exactly two years ago, suggesting that between the summers of 2017 and 2019 absolutely nothing has changed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“ECB Is Worst-Run Central Bank In The World” – Felix Zulauf Sees 30% Plunge In US Stocks “Taking The World With It”

October 21, 2018

“ECB Is Worst-Run Central Bank In The World” – Felix Zulauf Sees 30% Plunge In US Stocks “Taking The World With It”

Felix Zulauf was a member of the Barron’s Roundtable for about 30 years, until relinquishing his seat at our annual investment gathering in 2017. While his predictions were more right than wrong, it was the breadth of his knowledge and the depth of his analysis of global markets that won him devoted fans among his Roundtable peers, the crew at Barron’s, and beyond. Simply put, Felix, president of Zulauf Asset Management in Baar, Switzerland, always knew—and still knows—better than most how to connect the dots among central bankers’ actions, fiscal policies, currency gyrations, geopolitics, and the price of assets, hard and soft.

With interest rates rising, governments in flux, and the world’s two biggest economies facing off over trade, it seemed the right time to ask him how today’s turmoil will impact investors in the year ahead. Ever gracious, he shared his thoughts and best investment bets in an interview this past week. Read on for the view from Baar.

Barron’s: Felix, how have you been keeping busy since you left the Roundtable?

Felix Zulauf: I’m still running money, but it’s my own money, and I’m still a consultant to investors and institutions. I’m in the market almost every day. I like analyzing the world; the tectonic shifts occurring make it too fascinating to quit.

Which shifts do you mean?

For one, we have left the world of free markets and entered the world of managed economies. This is a major change in my lifetime. Central banks took over the running of economic policy after the financial crisis and run the show to this day. Also, the globalization movie is starting to run backward.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

ECB Hands Italy An Ultimatum: ‘Obey EU Budget Rules Or We Won’t Save You’

October 11, 2018

ECB Hands Italy An Ultimatum: ‘Obey EU Budget Rules Or We Won’t Save You’

With the Washington Post stepping up to put a floor under US stocks Thursday afternoon by reporting that President Trump would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at next month’s G-20 summit (while the headline soothed the market, it doesn’t change the fact that, as with everything involving the Trump administration, this too remains subject to change), investors have apparently overlooked the latest ominous headlines out of Italy. To wit, Reuters reported that the ECB won’t come to Italy’s rescue if its government or banks run out of cash unless the Italian government first secures a bailout from the European Union. Of course, this would almost certainly require that the populist coalition end its ongoing game of fiscal chicken with Brussels and abandon its dreams of lowering the retirement age and extending a basic income to the Italian people – policies that would effectively secure a political future for M5S and the League.

In effect, the ECB’s latest trial balloon is tantamount to blackmail: Either the Italians agree to fall back in line and obey European budgetary guidelines, or the central bank will sit back and watch as bond yields surge, providing the ratings agencies even more ammunition to cut Italian debt to junk – effectively guaranteeing a Greece-style banking crisis as the liquidity taps are turned off.

And to eliminate any lingering doubts that this was a deliberate coordinated leak, Reuters cited “five senior sources familiar with the ECB’s thinking,” many of whom were “present at the economic summit in Indonesia.” Of course, the ECB sources explained that they are merely acting in the best interest of the monetary union. Because if Italy is allowed to shake off the yoke of European austerity and re-assert its sovereignty, then what would stop Spain or Portugal from doing the same?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Tepper: Trump’s China Tariffs Could Trigger A 20% Pullback In US Stocks

September 14, 2018

Tepper: Trump’s China Tariffs Could Trigger A 20% Pullback In US Stocks

David Tepper was probably riding high after his Carolina Panthers bested the Dallas Cowboys in Sunday’s NFL season opener until Thursday afternoon, when he was forced to reckon with the fact that he’s been underweight US equities since he predicted back in April that the “highs are in.”

Of course, Tepper isn’t the only hedgie who dialed back his exposure after February’s volocaust whiplashed many funds and forced them to adopt a defensive posture as they waited for the other shoe to drop. And he deserves at least some credit for readily admitting during Thursday afternoon’s interview with CNBC’s Scott Wapner that he’s only been “about 25% exposed” to US equities – which, in retrospect, is about 75% short of the ideal allocation.

I probably don’t have enough exposure I’ve taken down my exposure. So I’m still long. But you know, not – I would in percentage terms of s&p-type exposure, might be 25% or something of that. And that’s been wrong, because the market has been very hot and the problem for people like me is I’ve had that express with long individual stocks and short you know, futures of some sort or the market in some fashion. And quite frankly our stocks have not done that well this quarter. Which you probably know, you’re going to ask me next or something like that, right

All things considered, assuming the market was fairly valued, a reasonable investor might expect to reap returns of up to 8% over the next year. But Tepper feels like some caution is warranted, which is why he still has cash he can put to work. Because anybody who has taken the president at his word would probably agree that the market has been too naive in pricing in the possibility that Trump’s trade conflict with China will come to an amicable resolution.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Doug Casey on Why Gold Could Go “Hyperbolic”

February 18, 2018

Doug Casey on Why Gold Could Go “Hyperbolic”

Justin’s note: Volatility has come storming back.

Just look at the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures how volatile investors expect the market to be over the next 30 days.

It’s up 89% since the start of the year. Last week, it hit the highest level since 2016.

Investors aren’t used to this. After all, last year was the least volatile year ever for U.S. stocks. That lulled many investors to sleep. It led them to take risks they would normally never take.

Now, those same people are wondering what to do. They aren’t sure if this is just a run-of-the-mill pullback…or the start of something much worse.

To help answer this question, I called up Doug Casey. I knew he would have an interesting take on this matter…

Justin: Doug, U.S. stocks took a beating recently. Where do you see things going from here?

Doug: Well, I hate to make a firm prediction of timing. The fact that things have held together, against all odds, since 2009, has underlined the old saying about just because something is inevitable doesn’t mean it’s imminent. Predictions of disaster, and all these things unwinding, have been wrong over the last half a decade. And the smart bet is always for muddling through, in the direction of progress. But it seems that we’ve finally reached a peak, a major turning point.

Justin: So, what have you done to protect your wealth?

Doug: At the beginning of the year, I took all my original capital out of cryptos, plus 150% profits. I also took profits on crypto stocks. I got in late, and out a bit late. But it was a happy experience.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Swiss National Bank Now Owns A Record $88 Billion In US Stocks

November 3, 2017

The Swiss National Bank Now Owns A Record $88 Billion In US Stocks

In the third quarter of 2017, one in which the global economy was supposedly undergoing a unprecedented “coordinated growth spurt”, and in which central banks were preparing to unveil their QE tapering intentions, in the case of the ECB, or raising rates outright, at the Fed, what was really taking place was another central bank buying spree meant to boost confidence that things are now back to normal, using “money” freshly printed out of thin air, and spent to prop up risk assets around the world by recklessly buying stocks with no regard for price or cost.

Nowhere was this more obvious than in the latest, just released 13F from the massive hedge fund known as the “Swiss National Bank.” What it showed is that, just like in the prior quarter, and the quarter before that, and on, and on, the Swiss central bank had gone on another aggressive buying spree and following its record purchases in the first quarter, the central bank boosted its total holdings of US stocks to an all time high $87.8 billion, up 4.2% or $3.5 billion from the $84.3 billion at the end of the second first quarter.

As reported earlier this week, as of Sept.30, the Swiss central bank had accumulated foreign exchange worth 760 billion francs (roughly the same in USD) due to its relentless open market interventions to depress the Swiss franc, and has “invested” those funds created out of thin air in both stocks and bonds. At the end of the second quarter, it held 20% in equities, of which the bulk was in US stocks.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How China Broke the World’s “Bubble Machine”

November 4, 2015

How China Broke the World’s “Bubble Machine”

Magical Money System

U.S. stocks still going up. What does Mr. Market know that we don’t know? Plenty. He knows everything. Millions of facts. Millions of opinions. Millions of guesses. A damned know-it-all. Mr. Market is always right; there is no higher authority except God Himself So, if Mr. Market says stocks should go up, who are we to argue?

China-crisis

“Don’t fight the tape,” is another old-timer expression on Wall Street. When stocks are going up, you don’t want to be short. When they are going down, you don’t want to be long. As simple as that sounds, it doesn’t help you much. Because you never know which side the tape is on.

DJIA, daily. At some point, the “tape” is going to mislead those “millions of well-informed investors” – click to enlarge.

Mr. Market is a cunning, wily, and tricky fellow. He’s perfectly capable of leading investors up and up… only to knock them down from a higher place. Also, he’s known to give out the word that it’s “all clear” in the stock market… while brewing up the storm of a century.

Or you may hear him singing the blues about how awful everything is… and then discover that he’s been buying the entire time. So, even though the Dow has been trending upward… we’d be careful about drawing any conclusions. Mr. Market could be up to his old tricks; the tape could reverse at any time. And we kinda think it will.

Friend and economist Richard Duncan points out that the booms and bubbles of the last 35 years had a particular cause. They weren’t the product of Mr. Market’s caprice or of investors’ shrewd judgments. Instead, an almost magical money system drove consumption, production, and asset prices to new highs all over the world. What a hoot! Wages rose 10 times in China. Stocks rose 16 times in the U.S. But now the party is over…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Governments Worldwide Will Crash the First Week of October … According to 2 Financial Forecasters

July 20, 2015

Governments Worldwide Will Crash the First Week of October … According to 2 Financial Forecasters

Update: Please see correction at the end.

Two well-known financial forecasters claim that virtually all governments worldwide will be hit with a gigantic economic crisis in the first week of October 2015.

Martin Armstrong

Martin Armstrong is a controversial market analyst who correctly predicted the 1987 crash, the top of the Japanese market, and many other market events … more or less to the day. Many market timers think that Armstrong is one of the very best.

(On the other hand, he was jailed for 11 years on allegations of contempt, fraud and an alleged Ponzi scheme. Armstrong’s supporters say the government jailed him on trumped-up charges as a way to try to pressure him into handing over his forecasting program).

Armstrong has predicted for years that governments worldwide would melt down in a crisis of insolvency and lack of trust starting this October. Specifically, Armstrong predicts that a major cycle will turn on October 1, 2015, shifting investors’ trust from the public sector and governments to the private sector.

Unlike other bears who predict that the stock market is about to collapse, Armstrong predicts that huge sums of capital will flow from bonds and the Euro into American stocks. So he predicts a huge bull market in U.S. stocks.

Larry Edelson

Edelson is another long-time student of cycle theory. Edelson – a big fan Armstrong – has also studied decades of data from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.

Edelson is predicting the biggest financial crisis in world history – including a collapse of government solvency – starting on October 7, 2015 – the same week as Armstrong’s prediction – when the European Union breaks up.

Edelson also thinks that huge sums of investment will flow from the Eurozone to America, driving up U.S. stocks (unlike Armstrong, Edelson thinks U.S. bonds will also benefit). He thinks that Japan will be the next domino to fall … and that Japan’s default will also drive investments into the U.S. as a safe haven.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop

June 14, 2015

End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop

The U.S. stock market has finally hit a speed bump after more than six years of a Fed- and QE-driven rally. The S&P 500 is up 232% since March of 2009 despite this unprecedented stimulus in the feeblest economic recovery in history.

But since late December 2014, U.S. stocks have gone nowhere as investors face some growing realities.

GDP, retail sales, production and exports are slowing.

The dollar’s sharp rise in recent years has crushed global exports.

Long term interest rates are rising consistently… what I call the beginning of the end of stimulus policies designed to keep rates low forever.

Meanwhile, in just six months Germany saw its key stock market, the DAX, rise nearly 50% from mid-October into early April.

Germany’s bubble has shot up 245% since March 2009 — greater than the U.S., despite its slower economy.

It won’t last!

As I’ve explained many times, starting last year Germany has the worst demographic trends of any country in the world lasting through 2022. It’s even worse than Japan’s demographic cliff in the 1990s!

There’s one reason Germany has held up as well as it has in the last year: the euro.

When the euro falls, German exports soar. Between April 2014 and March 2015 the euro fell 25%. Its long-term peak was in July 2008 at 1.60 dollars. It hit 1.05 in March — 34.5% lower!

Consider that Germany exports 50% of its GDP. That’s one of the highest ratios in the world.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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