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I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This

I’ve Got A Bad Feeling About This Ideally, I would have written this on May 4th not 14th, but I am going to talk Star Wars. I was a fan in 1977, kept the flame alive when only battered VHS cassettes of the original trilogy existed, and was delighted to get prequels. Until the opening […]

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Currency Wars Have Entered the Next Phase, Gold and Silver Will Move Higher

Currency Wars Have Entered the Next Phase, Gold and Silver Will Move Higher Gold is trading solidly above the $1500 mark at the time of writing, and I believe we are only just getting started. The currency wars are back in full swing, and they will be more intense than ever. The United States government, […]

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Currency War Begins: Chinese Yuan Crashes Past 7 To New Record Low; Global Markets Tumble After Beijing Suspends US Agri Imports

Currency War Begins: Chinese Yuan Crashes Past 7 To New Record Low; Global Markets Tumble After Beijing Suspends US Agri Imports Update 3: The carnage from yuan volatility is starting to spread… Chinese bond yields are tumbling… Dow futures are down 300 points… S&P futures below 2900… UST yields are collapsing… And the yield curve […]

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A Glimpse At 2019​​

A Glimpse At 2019​​ Markets In Critical Transformation, Chaotic Behaviour Has Just Began. Our inability as market participants to properly frame market fragility and the inherent vulnerability of the financial system makes a market crash more likely, as it helps Systemic Risk go unattended and build further up. For the first time in a while, […]

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World Finance Leaders Scramble For A Solution To Escalating Trade War, Rising Rates

World Finance Leaders Scramble For A Solution To Escalating Trade War, Rising Rates The main takeaway from the IMF and World Bank Group annual meeting in Bali, which hosted financial ministers and central bank governors from around the world this weekend, was that global trade tensions were having a profound effect on global growth and […]

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Trump’s Hand-Picked Winners and Losers: China vs Canada, NAFTA Threats, and P&G

Trump’s Hand-Picked Winners and Losers: China vs Canada, NAFTA Threats, and P&G As a single country, China is the US’s largest trading partner but Canada is the largest export partner. As Trump struggles to get a NAFTA deal going on account of Canada, the above chart puts things into perspective. Canada is the US’s largest […]

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Meanwhile in China, Implosion of Stock-Market Double-Bubble

Meanwhile in China, Implosion of Stock-Market Double-Bubble Bubbles don’t end well for those who don’t get out in time. US tariffs and threats of more tariffs have not been particularly well received in China, which is already being rattled by corporate credit problems, quakes in the shadow banking system, a peculiar Enron-type phenomenon at provincial […]

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Global Stocks, Futures Slide As China Shatters Trade Calm

Global Stocks, Futures Slide As China Shatters Trade Calm Just when it seemed that the tenuous trade ceasefire between the US and China could result in more stable market sentiment, European stocks dropped -0.5% to session lows led by mining and autos, with S&P futures sliding as volume surged, joining Asia in the red after […]

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Why The Saudis Are Still Dominating Oil Markets

Why The Saudis Are Still Dominating Oil Markets Saudi Arabia is still clearly in control of the oil market. The narrative that decisively took hold over the oil market in August was one of cracks in emerging market demand, concerns over the health of the global economy and fears over the fallout from the U.S.-China […]

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Sanctions, Sanctions, Sanctions – the Final Demise of the Dollar Hegemony?

Sanctions, Sanctions, Sanctions – the Final Demise of the Dollar Hegemony? Sanctions left and sanctions right. Financial mostly, taxes, tariffs, visas, travel bans – confiscation of foreign assets, import and export prohibitions and limitations; and also punishing those who do not respect sanctions dished out by Trump, alias the US of A, against friends of […]

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Canadians Begin Boycotting US Goods

Canadians Begin Boycotting US Goods With Trump’s trade war against China progressing and escalating seemingly every day, culminating for now with China’s Friday announcement of another $60 billion in tariffs on US imports in response to Trump’s threat to tax $200 billion of Chinese imports at a 25% rate, some China watchers expected that one […]

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Global Housing Bubble Is Popping. Here Comes The “Reverse Wealth Effect”

Global Housing Bubble Is Popping. Here Comes The “Reverse Wealth Effect” Just a few months ago, real estate was on fire. Prices were blowing past records set during the previous decade’s housing bubble as desperate buyers bought whatever was available at above the asking price while homeowners, confident that prices would keep rising, held out […]

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Stocks Drop As Trade War Returns; Japanese Bond Rout Leads To Emergency Margin Call

Stocks Drop As Trade War Returns; Japanese Bond Rout Leads To Emergency Margin Call The latest trade war truce lasted less than a day, and after stocks jumped yesterday following an early report that Mnuchin had resumed trade talks with his Chinese counterpart, a late Tuesday report that the Trump admin is planning to increase […]

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Canary in the Coal-MIne–Emerging Market Contagion

CANARY IN THE COAL-MINE – EMERGING MARKET CONTAGION Emerging market currencies, bonds and stocks have weakened Fears about the impact of US tariffs have been felt here most clearly The risk to Europe and Japan is significant Turkey may be the key market to watch As US interest rates continue to normalise and US tariffs […]

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World’s Largest Shipping Company Collapses As Trade War Reality Strikes

World’s Largest Shipping Company Collapses As Trade War Reality Strikes While US equity markets (well a few mega-cap tech stocks anyway) have remained resilient in the context of rising protectionist fears, theworld’s largest shipping company is seeing its stock eviscerated as investor anxiety over trade wars finds an outlet that makes rational sense. A.P. Moeller-Maersk […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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