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Inflation Jumped by 3.8% in Q1, “Real GDP” Rose 1.6%, Dragged Down by Record Trade Deficit and Drop in Inventories
Inflation Jumped by 3.8% in Q1, “Real GDP” Rose 1.6%, Dragged Down by Record Trade Deficit and Drop in Inventories Even the Fed’s repressed inflation measure without food and energy rose 2.3% annual rate in Q1. The US economy, as measured by inflation-adjusted GDP, grew by 1.6% in the first quarter from Q4 2020, according […]
Inflationary Financing and GDP
INFLATIONARY FINANCING AND GDP This article demonstrates that only government borrowing in the US and UK drives GDP growth. This surprising conclusion is confirmed by long-run statistics. GDP does not represent economic progress, nor does it include the expansion of activity in the non-financial private sector, because that marries up with larger trade deficits, which […]
GDP: Fake News
GDP: Fake News The first-quarter GDP number was released this morning. And at 3.2%, it came in far above estimates. Consensus was about 2.3%. It was also the highest Q1 GDP print since 2015. But there’s probably less here than meets the eye. About half the GDP gain came from a surge in inventories and […]
Savings–Not Tariffs Will Make America Great Again
Savings–Not Tariffs Will Make America Great Again While the farcical Kavanaugh confirmation hearings dominated the news cycle for the past couple of weeks, little mention was made of a disturbing economic headline – the August US trade deficit. Despite all the bluster from the Trump Administration about “winning trade wars” and “trade wars are easy,” […]
Record Deficits, Stronger Dollar Equals Record China Trade Deficit
Record Deficits, Stronger Dollar Equals Record China Trade Deficit Sometimes math is a real bitch. Donald Trump is a smart guy. I know he knows math. Too bad he’s ignoring it. Here’s the gig. The title says it all. Government spending is rising rapidly. More actual money is flowing into the US economy. Where is that […]
China: Something Must Burst
CHINA: SOMETHING MUST BURST “I know from a common sense financial standpoint that something has to burst. When a country is losing billions and billions and billions of dollars a year and when other countries are making hundreds of billions of dollars, something is going to burst” That was businessman Trump on America’s trade deficit […]
All is Not Well
All is Not Well The 1987 stock market crash raised concerns for the dangers associated with mounting U.S. “twin deficits.” Fiscal and trade deficits were reflective of poor economic management. Credit excesses – certainly including excessive government borrowings – were stimulating demand that was reflected in expanding U.S. trade and Current Account Deficits. Concerns dissipated […]
G-20 Needs To “Man Up” Or Risk Sparking Market Chaos, Citi Warns
G-20 Needs To “Man Up” Or Risk Sparking Market Chaos, Citi Warns Two days ago, the man who now signs your Federal Reserve notes threw cold water on hopes for a so-called “Shanghai Accord.” Over the past month or so, anticipation has built among market participants for some manner of coordinated policy response at this weekend’s G20 summit […]
China’s Hard Landing To Trigger Meltdown In India: “We Will See Another Crisis”
China’s Hard Landing To Trigger Meltdown In India: “We Will See Another Crisis” In late September, India “surprised” 51 out of 52 economists by cutting rates a larger than expected 50 bps. Despite RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan’s penchant for catching markets off guard and despite the fact that exports had fallen for eight consecutive months, […]
Forget China: This Extremely “Developed” Country Just Suffered Its Biggest Money Outflow Ever
Forget China: This Extremely “Developed” Country Just Suffered Its Biggest Money Outflow Ever While understandably all eyes have been fixed on every monthly capital outflow update from China (even the ones that the Politburo is clearly massaging), few have noticed that one of the biggest total outflows currently in the global developed economy is taking place right in America’s own […]
UK trade deficit narrows after oil price falls
UK trade deficit narrows after oil price falls The falling price of oil helped to narrow the UK’s trade gap with the rest of the world in November to its lowest since June 2013, official figures show. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the UK’s deficit in goods and services was £1.4bn in November, compared with […]
Fed looks past a world in turmoil, confident in U.S. recovery
Fed looks past a world in turmoil, confident in U.S. recovery (Reuters) – U.S. central bankers have looked beyond a global deflation threat, fear of energy-sector bond defaults, and a surge of oil patch layoffs to reach what appears to be a firm conclusion: the U.S. recovery is here to stay. New trade data released […]
Canada Posts Trade Deficit In November, And It Turns We Had One In October, Too
Canada Posts Trade Deficit In November, And It Turns We Had One In October, Too OTTAWA – Canada had a larger-than-expected trade deficit in November as a drop in crude oil and bitumen led a broad decline in exports. Statistics Canada said Wednesday that the country posted a merchandise trade deficit of $644 million in […]
