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The Demon-Haunted World
THE DEMON-HAUNTED WORLD “We’ve arranged a global civilization in which most crucial elements profoundly depend on science and technology. We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture […]
Serious Advice
SERIOUS ADVICE “Given all this, what do MPs do all day? Media manipulation, not operational planning on priorities. “Unsurprisingly, most senior MPs in all three parties are locked into a game in which they spend most of their time on a) launching gimmicks, and b) coping with crises. These two forms of activity are closely […]
Happy Anniversary
HAPPY ANNIVERSARY “They have learned nothing, and forgotten nothing.” Attributed to Talleyrand. Since everybody else in financial media has been indulging in an orgy of self-reflection, selective recollection and brazen virtue-signalling on the back of the 10 year anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in September 2008, and in steadfast keeping with our principle of ‘no […]
MAY DAY
MAY DAY “Japan was the dress rehearsal; the rest of the world will be the main event.” Investor in Japanese stocks, known to this correspondent, circa 2001. “Twitter has taught me a couple of things. 1: there are some incredibly brilliant people in the world. 2: they are vastly outnumbered.” Tweet by @jrsalzman. There are […]
Close to the Edge
CLOSE TO THE EDGE “Look at it this way. In 100 years, who’s gonna care ?” Nancy, waitress, in ‘The Terminator’ (screenplay by James Cameron and Gale Ann Hurd). Imagine that a cyborg from 10 years into the future paid you a visit back in 2007. Here is what is going to happen, he says, […]
For God’s Sake, Stop!
FOR GOD’S SAKE, STOP! “Most economists, it seems, believe strongly in their own superior intelligence and take themselves far too seriously. In his open letter of 22 July 2001 to Joseph Stiglitz, Kenneth Rogoff identified this problem. ‘One of my favourite stories from that era is a lunch with you and our former colleague, Carl […]
On Borrowed Time
On Borrowed Time There are a number of things you don’t want to hear a central banker say. One of those things just popped out of Janet Yellen’s mouth – “I don’t believe we will see another financial crisis in our lifetime.” That has to be up there with Irving Fisher’s deathless observation from 17 October […]
How Much Longer Will Investors Trust the Central Banks?
How Much Longer Will Investors Trust the Central Banks? There is no simple, painless solution. The world has to reduce debt, shrink the financial part of the economy, and change the destructive incentive structures in finance. Individuals in developed countries have to save more and spend less. Companies have to go back to real engineering. […]
When the Game Changes
WHEN THE GAME CHANGES “In a free market, the price and quantity of an item are determined by the supply and demand for that item.” ‘The function and nature of markets’ on boundless.com. In their efforts to jam the square peg of financial theory into the round hole of human nature, economists have perpetrated some pretty stupid […]
Your Do-It-Yourself Page Financial Armageddon Story
YOUR DO-IT-YOURSELF FRONT PAGE FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON STORY “The media select, they interpret, they emotionalize and they create facts.. The media not only reduce reality by lowering information density. They focus reality by accumulating information where “actually” none exists.. A typical stock market report looks like this: Stock X increased because.. Index Y crashed due to.. […]
Life Finds a Way
LIFE FINDS A WAY “The snag for them is that it happened on Monday. And all the official pronouncements in the State media were: “Well, it’s a blip. It’s a very rare event.” Well, it’s happened three days later so you then have to ask yourself, “How much of a blip is it ?” And […]
What’s the last dollar they can print before financial crisis?
What’s the last dollar they can print before financial crisis? In the field of mathematics, chaos theory studies the behavior of systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. The idea in chaos is that, like life itself, where you start today has tremendous influence on what happens next. In chaos, even very tiny changes […]
Honey, I Broke the Markets
Honey, I Broke the Markets “Donald Trump looks like the villain in a movie where the hero is a dog.” – The internet. Which four letter word still has an amazing capacity to cause offence, anxiety and aggravation ? In the world of investment, that word would have to be R-I-S-K. Do we even have […]
Dammit, Janet
Dammit, Janet According to Einstein, time is affected by gravity. Clocks far from strong gravitational fields run more quickly; those close by run more slowly. We can only assume, then, that Janet Yellen has the density of a neutron star. Under her leadership of the US Federal Reserve, time seems to have stopped altogether. It […]
On Rational Optimism
March 23, 2018
ON RATIONAL OPTIMISM “We got stick for questions like, ‘Who came second in the last war?’” he recalled. “But the contestants weren’t always the brightest tickets — some of their IQs didn’t reach room temperature. Once I accidentally read out the question and the answer: ‘Where was President Kennedy assassinated, in Dallas?’ And the contestant […]
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