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Leaked Chinese Memo Warns Of “Thucydides Trap” With US, “War Is Unavoidable”

July 7, 2018

Leaked Chinese Memo Warns Of “Thucydides Trap” With US, “War Is Unavoidable”

A series of leaked internal documents reveal that China’s military reforms are aimed at allowing Beijing to “manage a crisis, contain a conflict, win a war” and overtake the United States in military strength, according to the Express.

The leaked documents were published by the Central Military Commission in February for the purpose of spreading President Xi Jinping’s “thought on strengthening the armed forces”.

If the reforms go ahead, they will lead to heightened tensions with China’s neighbouring countries, including Japan, in the East and South China Seas and the US. –Express

“As we open up and expand our national interests beyond borders, we desperately need a comprehensive protection of our own security around the globe,” read the leaked documents, which adds that a strong military is the best way to “escape the obsession that war is unavoidable between an emerging power and a ruling hegemony”.

It’s worth noting that in March Beijing rolled out their largest defense budget in three years.

According to the leaked documents, China’s rapid military expansion will allow them to “more effectively create a situation, manage a crisis, contain a conflict, win a war, defend the expansion of our country’s strategic interests in an all-round fashion and realize the goals set by the party and Chairman Xi”.

The Japan Times reports that the authors of the documents argue that “strong military might is important for a country to grow from being big to being strong,” and that the US, Russia and Japan are examples of this, and would avoid the “Thucydides Trap“ – a deadly competition between superpowers first identified by anicient Greek historian Thucydides who explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This is how World War III starts—it will be financial

March 30, 2016

financial-nuclear-war

This is how World War III starts—it will be financial

In his History of the Peloponnesian War, ancient Greek historian Thucydides told us the tale of a dominant regional power (Sparta) that felt threatened by the rise of a competing power (Athens).

Sparta felt so threatened, in fact, that all the moves they made to keep the Athenian rise in check eventually escalated the power struggle into an all out war.

Modern political scientists call this the Thucydides Trap.

The idea is that when, out of fear, a dominant power takes certain steps to keep its competitor at bay, these actions ultimately lead to war between the two.

There’s a lot of concern that the US and China will fall into the Thucydides Trap.

This is certainly a valid concern. Both are nuclear superpowers with some of the largest militaries in the world.

But in 2016, modern warfare is not about tanks and aircraft carriers anymore. Modern warfare is insurgent, cyber, and financial.

In fact, if you look at the state of the financial system and the tactical brinksmanship between the US and China, it’s clear that the two are already in a Thucydides Trap.

This power struggle is leading to financial warfare of nuclear proportions; and as with any war, there will be a lot of casualties.

Just over the last several months we’ve seen many exchanges of fire between the two nations.

  • The US government claimed legal jurisdiction over the Bank of China, one of the largest banks on the mainland.
  • The Chinese launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a supernational bank designed to compete with the Western-dominated IMF.
  • The US blacklisted one of China’s largest telecom companies, forbidding any US company from doing business with China’s ZTE.
  • China has been rapidly expanding its global payment network, UnionPay to become a direct competitor with Western systems like Maestro, Visa, and Mastercard.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Thucydides Trap or the Coming War with China

April 4, 2015

The Thucydides Trap or the Coming War with China

Editor’s Note: Bill is still up on the family ranch in northern Argentina. And his satellite Internet link is down. So there is no new update from him today. Instead, we republish a classic piece from Bill on the potential for a war between the US and China.

Athenian historian, political philosopher and general Thucydides (c. 460 – 395 BC). He authored The History of the Peloponnesian War, which recounts the war in the 5th century BC between Sparta and Athens. Today Thucydides is considered the father of scientific history (he was the first historian to focus on meticulously gathering evidence and leaving intervention by the gods out of historical accounts) as well as the father of the school of political realism, who was the first to study relations between nations on the basis of their relative economic and military power.

From Hegemon to Also-Ran

Somehow, like it or not, the world turns. Today’s hegemon becomes tomorrow’s also-ran. Today’s reserve currency becomes tomorrow’s toilet paper. Today’s cock o’ the walk becomes tomorrow’s dinner.

Hey, we didn’t create this system. We don’t even especially like it. But that’s just the way it is.

Whether you already have made a fortune, or are trying to build one, you need to be very careful about what currency … or currencies … your wealth is denominated in.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

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