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Hugh Hendry: “If China Devalues By 20% The World Is Over, Everything Hits A Wall”
Hugh Hendry: “If China Devalues By 20% The World Is Over, Everything Hits A Wall”
Once upon a time Hugh Hendry was one of the world’s most prominent financial skeptics, arguing with anyone who would listen that the status quo is doomed and that central planning will never work.
Most famously, back in 2010 during a BBC round table discussion with Jeffrey Sachs and Gillian Tett when discussing Europe’s crashing experiment with the single currency, he said that we should “purge this system of its rottenness. Let’s take on a recession. It’s going to be tough, people are gonna lose their jobs. They are going to lose their jobs anyway. We can spread this over 20 years, or we can get rid of it over 3 years” before concluding “I recommend you panic.”
Ultimately everyone did panic, which led to the single biggest episode of global QE and negative rates ever seen, resulting in ever louder speculation even among the most “serious” people that central bankers are now powerless.
But perhaps most notably, Hendry was one of the biggest China bears, certain that the country’s massive overcapacity, insolvency and bad debt problems will result in disaster (back then China only had about 200% debt/GDP, it has since risen to over 350%). His Chinese skepticism led to his fund generating a 40% profit by late 2011.
And then after a poor two year performance spell, Hendry had a historic burnout and threw in the towel on bearishness, infamously saying he can no longer “look at himself in the mirror“:
“I may be providing a public utility here, as the last bear to capitulate. You are well within your rights to say ‘sell’. The S&P 500 is up 30% over the past year: I wish I had thought this last year… Crashing is the least of my concerns.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
EU Commissioner’s Dire Warning: “The Only Alternative To Europe Is War”
EU Commissioner’s Dire Warning: “The Only Alternative To Europe Is War”
While the saying goes “good fences make good neighbors,” it appears the leadership of The EU is starting to get frustrated with the lack of acquiescence among some of the ‘union’s’ newer or more marginal members. In a somewhat stunning statement, following ongoing and contentious meetings to discuss solutions to the migrant ‘problem’, EU Commissioner Timmermanns appeared to warn disagreeable member states, “There is an alternative to everything. I believe in EU cooperation because of all other forms in history have been tried to help Europeans get on better, and with the exception of this one, all other forms have led to war – so let’s stick to this one.”
As Elsevier reports (via Google Translate),European leaders read the last few days the alarm about the survival of the European Union (EU). Prague said Commissioner Frans Timmermans (PvdA) Friday that the EU is only one alternative: war.“The only alternative to the EU is war,” said Timmermans Friday gave a speech at a conference in Prague, said a reporter for The Times of London who attended the speech.
Timmermans is the way Europe responds to the migration crisis’ the biggest threat to the EU ever. The Commissioner underlined that countries should cooperate better when it comes to border controls. “Migration is part of life, but we must lead these movements together in the right direction,” said Timmermans.
Matching words Timmermans in the alarmist tone that European leaders were heard in recent days about the survival of the EU.Earlier this week, Timmermans at the House of Europe Lecture in Amsterdam that he fears for the survival of the EU.
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Deal Struck Following Total Capitulation By Tsipras: Market Awaits Greek Reaction To Draconian Deal Terms
Deal Struck Following Total Capitulation By Tsipras: Market Awaits Greek Reaction To Draconian Deal Terms
Last night, when we concluded our overnight summary state of affairs we said that “we expect some resolution around first light this morning, and while another Greek can kicking and some last-moment “hope” is surely in the cards, we know two things: Greece is officially finished – there is no way the Tsipras or any other government can politically recover after such a humiliating spectacle when half of Europe made a mockery of the Greek people; and perhaps better, we finally have seen the true face of Europe: visible only when things are finally falling apart.”
Sure enough, just around 9am CET, after a 17-hour mammoth all-night session, Greece did manage to cobble together a “deal” if one may call this latest embarrassing can-kicking that, which was nothing short of total capitulation by Tsipras: a prime minister who 8 days ago was victorious cheering the passage of a referendum that rejected a far less draconian deal.
As part of the deal, Greece “surrendered to European demands for immediate action to qualify for up to 86 billion euros ($95 billion) of aid Greece needs to stay in the euro” as Bloomberg politely put it.
We would put it as follows: Greece agreed, at the cost of ceding its sovereignty to Europe, to allow the Troika to repay itself.
Worse, there is no actual deal term sheet on the table: while the summit agreement averted a worst-case outcome for Greece, it only established the basis for negotiations on an aid package, which would also include €25 billion euros to recapitalize its weakened financial system, money which would come from Greek asset sales.
The politicians were greatly relieved, perhaps most of all to be finally able to go to bed. Here is the statement by Euro president Donald Tusk:
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Russia Readies Fuel Deliveries To Athens, Will Support Greek “Economic Revival”
Russia Readies Fuel Deliveries To Athens, Will Support Greek “Economic Revival”
Russia and Greece have a “special relationship of spiritual kinship and religious and historical affinity,” Vladimir Putin said yesterday, following the BRICS summit in Ulfa.
Over the course of the unfolding crisis in Greece, Athens has at various times gone out of its way to remind Angela Merkel that allowing the country to crash out of the currency bloc may force the Greeks to turn to their other international “friends” (to use Nigel Farage’s words) for assistance. Facing economic sanctions from the EU in connection with its alleged role in destabilizing Ukraine not to mention a spiteful anti-trust suit against Gazprom, the Kremlin has been more than happy to use the rising tensions between Athens and Brussels to its geopolitical advantage.
So far, discussions between Russia and Greece have revolved primarily around energy, and several months back, when negotiations between Athens and creditors began to deteriorate in earnest, reports began to surface that Moscow may consider advancing Greece some €5 billion against the future proceeds from the Greek portion of the proposed Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline.
Although the loan never materialized, the agreement on the pipeline did, and it was held up last week as proof that Greece is “no one’s hostage.”
Now, that contention will be put to the test as Greece faces the prospect of a “swift time-out” from the eurozone if PM Alexis Tsipras can’t convince parliament to agree to a new term sheet from creditors which seeks the implementation of a number of draconian measures in exchange for a third bailout. Of course, as we notedearlier today, a “time-out” is a polite way of saying “get the hell out,” and in the event of a messy exit and forced redenomination, an acute cash and credit crunch will likely mean a shortage of critical imports and, in short order, a humanitarian crisis.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
