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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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What is Optimal Monetary Policy, Anyway?

WHAT IS OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY, ANYWAY? Ever since the important contributions of new classical economists Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott during the 1970s and 80s, modern macroeconomics seeks optimal rules for monetary policy. Indeed, Milton Friedman had previously emphasized the importance of a binding rule for monetary policy. He recommended a constant but […]

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The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship?

The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship? One of the most reliable indicators of an imminent recession through recent history has been the yield curve. Whenever longer dated rates falls below shorter dated ones, a recession is not far off. Some would even say that yield curve inversion, or backwardation, help cause the economic contraction. […]

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Money and Spheres

Money and Spheres In a tiny subsection of the analytical world, analysis is becoming more pointed and poignant. I appreciate Bill Gross’s August commentary, where he concluded: “Say a little prayer that the BIS, yours truly, and a growing cast of contrarians, such as Jim Bianco and CNBC’s Rick Santelli, can convince the establishment that […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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