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Three Scenarios for the Global Economy

October 10, 2017

Zhang Peng/Getty Images Three Scenarios for the Global Economy The International Monetary Fund, which in recent years had characterized global growth as the “new mediocre,” recently upgraded its World Economic Outlook. But is the IMF right to think that the recent growth spurt will continue over the next few years, or is a temporary cyclical […]

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“Markets Have No Purpose Any More” Mark Spitznagel Warns “Biggest Collapse In History” Is Inevitable

May 16, 2016

“Markets Have No Purpose Any More” Mark Spitznagel Warns “Biggest Collapse In History” Is Inevitable After making over $1 billion in one day last August, and warning that “the markets are overvalued to the tune of 50%,” Mark Spitznagel knows a thing or two about managing tail risk. The outspoken practitioner of Austrian economic philosophy tells The […]

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Bank of America Explains How Central Banks Rigged And Manipulated The Market

January 3, 2016

Bank of America Explains How Central Banks Rigged And Manipulated The Market It used to be the provenance of “conspiracy theorists” – alleging that central banks have manipulated, rigged or otherwise broken the “efficient market.” That is no longer the case. As we previously showed, now even the big banks admit it. However, since for some […]

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Even The Big Banks Now Admit It: “This Is How The Fed’s ‘Massive Manipulation’ Broke The Market”

December 28, 2015

Even The Big Banks Now Admit It: “This Is How The Fed’s ‘Massive Manipulation’ Broke The Market” Raise your hand if this sounds familiar: markets are calm, things are stable, stocks are levitating on virtually no volume… and suddenly there is a price ‘air pocket’ as one or more assets unexpectedly plunge in what has become […]

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Waiting to be SKEWered?

October 15, 2015

Waiting to be SKEWered? SKEW Goes Pear-Shaped Back in 1998, at the height of the Russian crisis, the CBOE SKEW Index reached its all time high of 146.88. Previously very high values were seen on the eve of the 1990 recession, and in March 2006 it spiked again when sudden worries about the housing bubble […]

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It Starts: Broad Retaliation Against China in Currency War

August 20, 2015

It Starts: Broad Retaliation Against China in Currency War The biggest global “tail risk” is China’s deteriorating economy and an emerging market debt crisis, according to BofA Merrill Lynch’s monthly poll of fund managers. And 48% of them were expecting the Fed to raise rates, despite languid growth and low inflation expectations. Hot money is already fleeing emerging […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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