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There is a very Dark Cloud hovering over the world economy and at the center of this cloud lies not just Europe, but Germany – the strongest economy holding up all of Europe. The German manufacturing sector is in freefall. Trump will be blamed calling this the result of his Trade War. It is probably too late to get him to even understand that his advisers are old-school and completely wrong with respect to trade. Their obsession with currency movements is what they taught back in school during the 1930s. My advice to China, let the yuan float and Trump will quickly see that China has been supporting its currency, not suppressing it.

Manufacturing indicators have deteriorated globally, yet in a very disproportionate manner. Trump will be blamed for this and his badgering the Fed to lower interest rates is also a fool’s game. Nobody looks at the elderly who were told to save for retirement and you will live off the interest. Their house values were undermined in the 2007-2009 New York Banker’s Mortgage-Backed scam that blew up the world economy from which we have been unable to fully recover. The younger generation cannot afford to buy a house as they are saddled with student loans thanks to the Clintons for degrees that are worthless as 65% cannot find jobs in what they have degrees for these days.

The insanity of those in power knows no boundary when it comes to stupidity around the world. All they have is interest rates and after more than 10 years of excessively low to negative interest rates failing to stimulate the economy in Europe, what do they do? They argue that all physical money must be eliminated because people are hoarding cash and thus defeat their lower interest rates policy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Debt Surpasses 244 Trillion Dollars As “Nearly Half The World Lives On Less Than $5.50 A Day”

January 18, 2019

Global Debt Surpasses 244 Trillion Dollars As “Nearly Half The World Lives On Less Than $5.50 A Day”

The borrower is the servant of the lender, and one of the primary ways that the elite keep the rest of us subjugated is through the $244,000,000,000,000 mountain of global debt that has been accumulated. Every single day, the benefits of our labor are going to enrich somebody else. A portion of the taxes that are deducted from your paycheck is used to pay interest on government debt. A portion of the profits that your company makes probably goes to servicing some form of business debt. And most Americans are continuously making payments on their mortgages, their auto loans, their credit card balances and their student loan debts. But most people never stop to think about who is becoming exceedingly wealthy on the other end of these transactions. Needless to say, it isn’t the 46 percent of the global population that is living on less than $5.50 a day.

The world has never seen anything like this mountain of debt ever before, and one of the central themes of The Economic Collapse Blog is that all of this debt will ultimately destroy our society. According to the Institute of International Finance, the total amount of global debt is now “more than three times the size of the global economy”…

The world’s debt pile is hovering near a record at $244 trillion, which is more than three times the size of the global economy, according to an analysis by the Institute of International Finance.

The global debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 318 percent in the third quarter of last year, despite a stronger pace of economic growth, according to a report by the Washington-based IIF released on Tuesday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Debt Surpasses 244 Trillion Dollars As “Nearly Half The World Lives On Less Than $5.50 A Day”

January 16, 2019

Global Debt Surpasses 244 Trillion Dollars As “Nearly Half The World Lives On Less Than $5.50 A Day”

The world’s debt pile is hovering near a record at $244 trillion, which is more than three times the size of the global economy, according to an analysis by the Institute of International Finance.

The global debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 318 percent in the third quarter of last year, despite a stronger pace of economic growth, according to a report by the Washington-based IIF released on Tuesday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

America Goes Full Imbecile

June 9, 2018

America Goes Full Imbecile

Credit has a wicked way

of magnifying a person’s defects. Even the most cautious man, with unlimited credit, can make mistakes that in retrospect seem absurd. But an average man, with unlimited credit, is preeminently disposed to going full imbecile.

Let us not forget about this important skill… [PT]

Several weeks ago we came across a woeful tale of Mike Meru. Somehow, this special fellow, while of apparent sound mine and worthy intent, racked up over $1 million dollars in student loan debt – all to become an orthodontist.

Surely, with several good text books, and a disciplined self-study program, Meru could have learned everything there was to possibly know about adjusting malpositioned teeth for roughly $200 bucks. Instead, with the full backing of Uncle Sam’s loan program, he went full imbecile.

Yet Meru isn’t alone. According to the Department of Education, there are 101 people in the U.S. who are a million dollars or more in federal student loan debt. What’s more, there are 2.5 million people who owe at least $100,000. What could they have possibly learned that could be so doggone valuable?

Did they discover how to turn nickels into dimes? Did they solve the geometry of a four-sided triangle? Did they learn the secrets of the universe? Did they get an insider’s peek at something more than what happens under the sun?

Delusions of Grandeur

Only at rare moments are people capable of understanding the full implications of the catastrophes of their making. These rare moments, often just before dawn, are the precise instants when they gain full clarity to the hopeless fact that they have gone full imbecile. That every decision they have ever made has led them to this exact place – where they find themselves to be completely and utterly screwed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inflation is in the Rear-View Mirror

March 1, 2018

Inflation is in the Rear-View Mirror

43 percent of credit card holders carry a balance. Delinquencies are rising. It’s a deflationary debt trap.

Revolving Credit Hits New Record High

In December, revolving debt has topped the previous high-water mark of $1.021 trillion set in April of 2008. Debt as of December 2017 (the latest available) is $1.028 trillion.

Relationship Killer

In addition to student loans, credit card debt is another factor holding down home ownership and family formation. Studies show Credit Card Debt is a Relationship Killer.

Of all household debts, Americans find credit card debt the most unacceptable in a partner, but credit card balances are creeping higher.
About 43 percent off all card holders carry a balance each month according to the American Bankers Association.
More than 3 in 4 Americans consider too much card debt a relationship deal breaker, according to personal finance site Finder.com.

Overdue Debt Hits 7-Year High

The Financial Times reports Overdue US Credit Card Debt Hits 7-Year High.

Distressed debt, defined as debt that’s at least three month’s delinquent, totals $11.9 billion. That’s an 11.5% fourth-quarter surge.

The Financial Times also notes “More Americans are also falling behind on their mortgages, for which problematic debt levels rose 5.2 percent over the same period to $56.7 billion.”

Deflationary Debt Trap Setup

These numbers are huge deflationary. When credit expands there is inflation. When credit contracts (think defaults, bankruptcies, mortgage walk-away events), debt deflation occurs.

Here’s my definition of inflation: An increase in money supply and credit, with credit marked to market.

Deflation is the opposite: A decrease in money supply and credit, with credit marked to market.

Looking Ahead

Credit card delinquencies are priced as if they will be paid back. They won’t.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The State of the American Debt Slaves

February 8, 2018

The State of the American Debt Slaves

It was one gigantic party. But wait…

Total consumer credit rose 5.4% in the fourth quarter, year over year, to a record $3.84 trillion not seasonally adjusted, according to the Federal Reserve. This includes credit-card debt, auto loans, and student loans, but not mortgage-related debt. December had been somewhat of a disappointment for those that want consumers to drown in debt, but the prior months, starting in Q4 2016, had seen blistering surges of consumer debt.

Think what you will of the election – consumers celebrated it or bemoaned it the American way: by piling on debt.

The chart below shows the progression of consumer debt since 2006 (not seasonally adjusted). Note the slight dip after the Financial Crisis, as consumers deleveraged – with much of the deleveraging being accomplished by defaulting on those debts. But it didn’t last long. And consumer debt has surged since. It’s now 45% higher than it had been in Q4 2008. Food for thought: Over the period, the consumer price index increased 17.5%:

Credit card debt and other revolving credit in Q4 rose 6% year-over-year to $1.027 trillion, a blistering pace, but it was down from the 9.2% surge in Q3, the nearly 10% surge in Q2, and the dizzying 12% surge in Q1. So the growth of credit card debt in Q4 was somewhat of a disappointment for those wanting to see consumers drown in expensive debt.

The chart below shows the leap of the past four quarters over prior years. This pushed credit card debt in Q3 and Q4 finally over the prior record set in Q4 2008 ($1.004 trillion), before it came tumbling down via said “deleveraging.”

These are not seasonally adjusted numbers, and you can see the seasonal surges in credit card debt every Q4 during shopping season (as marked), and the drop afterwards in Q1.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Endgame Takes Shape: “Banning Capitalism And Bypassing Capital Markets”

October 11, 2015

The Endgame Takes Shape: “Banning Capitalism And Bypassing Capital Markets”

One month ago we presented to readers that in the first official “serious” mention of “Helicopter Money” as the next (and final) form of monetary stimulus, Australia’s Macquarie Bank said that there is now about 12-18 months before this “unorthodox” policy is implemented. We also predicted that now that the seal has been broken, other banks would quickly jump on board with an idea that is the only possible endgame to 8 years of monetary lunacy, and sure enough, both Citigroup and Deutsche Bank within days brought up the Fed’s monetary paradrop as the up and coming form of monetary policy.

So while the rest of the street is undergoing revulsion therapy, as it cracks its “the Fed will hike rates any minute” cognitive dissonance and is finally asking, as Morgan Stanley did last week, whether the Fed will first do QE4 or NIRP (something we have said since January), here is what is really coming down the line, with the heretic thought experiment of the endgame once again coming from an unexpected, if increasingly credibly source, Australia’s Macquarie bank.

* * *

Would more QE make a difference? Have to move to different types of QE or allow nature to take its course

It seems that over the last week investor consensus swung from expecting Fed tightening and some form of normalization of monetary policy to delaying expectation of any tightening until 2016 and possibly beyond whilst discussion of a possibility of QE4 has gone mainstream.

Although “QE forever” and no tightening has been our base case for at least the last 12-18 months, we also tend to emphasize the diminishing impact of conventional QE policies. As the latest Fed paper (San Francisco) highlighted, “There is no work, to my knowledge, that establishes a link from QE to the ultimate goals of the Fed-inflation and real economic activity. Indeed, casual evidence suggests that QE has been ineffective in increasing inflation”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Students federation says N.L. grant plan should be adopted nationally

August 17, 2015

Students federation says N.L. grant plan should be adopted nationally

The Canadian Federation of Students wants to put growing education debt on the federal election radar and says other governments should follow Newfoundland and Labrador’s shift to student grants instead of loans.

Provincial student loans now replaced with grants in N.L.

“We have a crisis in Canada when it comes to overall student debt burdens,” said national chairperson Bilan Arte.

“Without a deliberate, national plan around post-secondary education and youth employment, we are going to see this generation failed again,” she said in an interview.

“As students, we cannot stand for that.”

Daniel Rumbolt is about to start his fourth year at Memorial University of Newfoundland in fine arts and hopes to become a professor. He works three part-time jobs in addition to a full course load. Still, he expects to rack up about $16,000 in student loans by next spring, he said in an interview.

Provincial grants will save him at least $3,000. Rumbolt said it’s a huge morale boost that’s inspiring students to stay in the province after graduation.

“I think people are becoming more and more motivated to support the province that’s supporting us.”

Current loans system stifling graduates, says CFS

Arte said Newfoundland and Labrador’s shift to grants should be copied across the country. She called the current system of federal and provincial funding an “ineffective” approach that’s putting higher learning out of reach as graduates shoulder historic debt loads.

The federation argues what is now spent running the Canada Student Loans Program, related tax credits and savings schemes should be shifted to up front grants.

Many graduates are typically too broke to even think about cars, houses or other economy-driving investments, Arte said.

“We’re just thinking about how to pay next month’s bills.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Bernanke & Greenspan Have Destroyed America” Schiff & Maloney Warn “People Don’t Realize What Is Coming”

June 3, 2015

“Bernanke & Greenspan Have Destroyed America” Schiff & Maloney Warn “People Don’t Realize What Is Coming”

Ali and Frazier, Laurel and Hardy, Mayweather and Pacquiao, Liesman and Santelli, and now Schiff and Maloney. Peter and Mike join clash of the titan-like to discuss their investment strategies and expose the charts the government doesn’t want you to seeas “people like Bernanke are taken seriously still and the people that did predict [the crisis] are dismissed as lunatics half the time.” The wide-reaching conversation covers everything from gold and stocks to The Fed and The Dollar – Bernanke “took the coward’s way out because all he did was exacerbate the problems to postpone the day of reckoning.” The air is coming out of the bubble, they warn, “Bernanke and Greenspan have absolutely destroyed America. People don’t realize what is coming…”

Full transcript below:

Mike: I was in Puerto Rico a little while back and Peter Schiff invited me over to his house and we were just amazed at how we are exactly on the same page when it comes to everything economically. And so he just made a trip out to California near my offices and we decided we’d get together and discuss some of this stuff. So on your travels Peter lately you were just at a show you were speaking. Where were you at?

Peter: I was in Las Vegas. It’s great to see you again Mike. I was speaking to a very main stream audience of hedge fund managers at an annual conference there. And what was very interesting is even though the audience was, as I said, very main stream, and I was on a panel with a lot of very high profile, main stream individuals, the only person that really got applause was me.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article or view the interview…

A Generational Storm Is Coming

May 14, 2015

A Generational Storm Is Coming

Dear Diary,

Yesterday, we began our high-minded graduation speech to the Class of 2015.

We explained how the young graduates were not only the most heavily indebted in history, but also the least likely to be able to pay their debts.

Median wages have been going down since these graduates were about five years old… So have economic growth rates.

Today, we continue the speech no one wants us to give…

You are heirs to claptrap, nonsense, bogus theories, and trillions of dollars in debt.

The systems, programs, and institutions your parents set up are mostly worthless scams. Worse, they produce outcomes contrary to their stated goals.

Welfare programs do not help people escape poverty; they keep them mired in it.

Health care programs do not make them healthy; they make them dependent on the drug industry.

Defense industry spending doesn’t make us safer; it funds drones, bumbling interventions, and assassinations… and it creates more foreign enemies.

We end up not only poorer, but also less secure.

All of those assertions take more time to explain and prove than we have time for now. But here’s a little example that you will appreciate…

25 Years of Poverty

Under President Johnson, the government set up the Federal Direct Student Loan Program to provide “low-interest loans” (back then, “low” meant 8%) to students.

Private lenders make the loans, but they receive the full backing of the feds.

The idea was to help you afford higher education… and earn larger salaries as a result. And with your increased earnings you were supposed to be able to pay off the loan.

But at over 11% of outstanding debt, the Student Loan Program now has the highest delinquency rate of all forms of household debt (mortgage loans, auto loans, credit cards).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Treasury’s Worst-Case Scenario: Over $3.3 Trillion In Student Loans In A Decade | Zero Hedge

December 10, 2014

The Treasury’s Worst-Case Scenario: Over $3.3 Trillion In Student Loans In A Decade | Zero Hedge.

One of the recurring topics on Zero Hedge over the past 3 years has been the relentless increase in student loans which, as a result of their cumulative default and loss severity (including those loans which are “merely” in deferment and forbearance) has surpassed the subprime bubble in terms of size.

In fact, as the following table from the TBAC shows, the actual default risk from student loans is several orders of magnitude above the 9% student loans which the Fed has revealed as currently “in default”, as one has to add those 12% of loans in deferment and 11% in forbearance to the entire risk pool. In short: a third of all student loans are likely to end up unrepaid!

Why is this number a problem? Because as the TBAC also forecasts, in its worst economic case scenario for the millennial generation (which sadly, based on recent employment and income trends for America’s young adults is more like the base case scenario), total student loans, which currently stand a little over $1 trillion (or more than all the credit card debt in America), is set to triple in just the next decade, hitting a whopping $3.3 trillion by 2024.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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