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Are Fossil Fuel Companies Telling Investors Enough About the Risks of Climate Change?

Are Fossil Fuel Companies Telling Investors Enough About the Risks of Climate Change?

The Securities and Exchange Commission, for example, was probing how ExxonMobil discloses the impact of that risk on the value of its reserves. And disclosure advocates have been pressing the agency to take more decisive action.

Now that Republicans control Congress and the White House, will the SEC reverse course? And should it?

The Trump administration’s apparent skepticism regarding climate change may portend such a change in direction. And Congress’ decision to roll back transparency rules for U.S. energy companies in the Dodd-Frank Act suggests transparency policy more broadly is being loosened.

The terms of this debate, however, remain premised on the notion that investors don’t have enough information to accurately assess the impact of climate change on company value. A growing body of academic research, including our own, suggests they already do and that a compromise path that improves the terms and conditions for voluntary disclosure might be optimal.

“Stranded” Assets

Such a change in direction would be good news for ExxonMobil in its fight with the SEC over climate change disclosure.

Last year, ExxonMobil announced that 4.6 billion barrels of oil and gas assets — 20 percent of its current inventory of future prospects — may be too expensive to tap. That would be the largest asset write-down in its history. So far, the company has written down US$2 billion in expensive, above-market cost natural gas assets. More write-downs — this time possibly oil sands — may be forthcoming.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Big Oil Should Kill Itself

Why Big Oil Should Kill Itself

LONDON – Now that oil prices have settled into a long-term range of $30-50 per barrel (as described here a year ago), energy users everywhere are enjoying an annual income boost worth more than $2 trillion. The net result will almost certainly accelerate global growth, because the beneficiaries of this enormous income redistribution are mostly lower- and middle-income households that spend all they earn.

Of course, there will be some big losers – mainly governments in oil-producing countries, which will run down reserves and borrow in financial markets for as long as possible, rather than cut public spending. That, after all, is politicians’ preferred approach, especially when they are fighting wars, defying geopolitical pressures, or confronting popular revolts.

But not all producers will lose equally. One group really is cutting back sharply: Western oil companies, which have announced investment reductions worth about $200 billion this year. That has contributed to the weakness of stock markets worldwide; yet, paradoxically, oil companies’ shareholders could end up benefiting handsomely from the new era of cheap oil.

Just one condition must be met. The managements of leading energy companies must face economic reality and abandon their wasteful obsession with finding new oil. The 75 biggest oil companies are still investing more than $650 billion annually to find and extract fossil fuels in ever more challenging environments. This has been one of the greatest misallocations of capital in history – economically feasible only because of artificial monopoly prices.

But the monopoly has fallen on hard times. Assuming that a combination of shale development, environmental pressure, and advances in clean energy keep the OPEC cartel paralyzed, oil will now trade like any other commodity in a normal competitive market, as it did from 1986 to 2005. As investors appreciate this new reality, they will focus on a basic principle of economics: “marginal cost pricing.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stranded Assets in Oil and Gas a Reality

Stranded Assets in Oil and Gas a Reality

Just a few short years ago a friend called me to chat about the possibility of stranded assets in oil and gas due to climate change and the expected legislation and new regulations that would entail. This was an interesting idea coming out of the UK at the time. Since then, the idea has gained more and more traction. What is starting to emerge, however, is that stranded assets in oil and gas are not going to happen merely because of climate change. It is happening as we speak because a number of potentially disrupting events are all converging on one point: our use of hydrocarbons. Some of the challenges are due to climate and some are not. What is clear, however, is that they are multiplying. Though climate change will no doubt prove to be one aspect of stranded assets, others will include a simple but powerful realization that there are simply better places to put your investment dollars…or euros…or yuan.

So what are these potentially disrupting events? Let’s start with just one.

We’ve all heard of the compound effect and how it can beneficially impact our investments. What we don’t hear as much is what it can do detrimentally as well. Because the compound effect doesn’t just work on investments. It also works on every aspect of your life. If you choose to add desserts to a couple of meals a week when you never ate dessert before, chances are that you will gain weight. It won’t seem a big deal at first. You won’t even notice it but then one day you will wake up and “somehow” you’ve gained five pounds. Something similar is happening with the alternative energies of wind and solar. While most of us were not paying attention, they were quietly adding capacity to the grid. While we were incessantly fixated on the “shale revolution” they were streamlining manufacturing processes and the costs were plunging.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

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