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Excerpt From “De-Growth in the Suburbs, A Radical Urban Imaginary.” Part 3
EXCERPT FROM “DE-GROWTH IN THE SUBURBS, A RADICAL URBAN IMAGINARY. “ PART 3
The Limits to Capital
Are we at the threshold of the apocalyptic ‘next world’ that scientist James Lovelock (2009) speaks of? Put differently, is the human species now at the precipice of natural default and the massive societal change it must surely trigger? These are not new questions. The end of carbon-intensive capitalism has been long predicted: As Beck (2012: 90) reminded us, already, more than a century ago, Max Weber anticipated the end of oil-based capitalism when he spoke of a time when ‘the last hundredweight of fossil fuel is built up’.
The contemporary problem of overshoot has two faces: one of over accumulation and thus depletion of natural capital; the other a simul- taneous overabundance of financial capital and critical deprivation of social capital (‘planet of slums’ etc.). The built environment is now central to these twin crises of the age. Urbanisation is at the heart of overproduction and ecological default, but also central to the absorption of excess capital. The real estate sector has its own dynamics, and investment in housing is vital for capital accumulation, as Harvey has explained, yet all this takes place within a paradigm of growth capitalism that shapes and seems to impel these destructive and often exclusive modes of development. The massive contemporary infrastructure development push in world cities reflects both realities—absorption and depletion. The ricocheting spiral of these modalities defines the urban age. This indicates a convulsive instability at the heart of human prospect that contradicts the predictive confidence of popular urban commentary. As debt fuels what seem to be property bubbles in various urban centres—with the Australian capital cities of Sydney and Melbourne being particularly worrying examples—renegade economist Steve Keen (2017) warns that it would be prudent to prepare for the closing of the casino before these bubbles burst. The convulsion suggests a bad ending.
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Keep It Simple And Complex, Stupid
Keep It Simple And Complex, Stupid
My last post supporting the use of nonlinear models (“You Do Need A Weatherman”) generated some thoughtful responses, mainly along the lines of this post by Ari Andricopoulos entitled “A View on the Economic Model Debate from a Non-economist (but someone who builds models for a living)”. The basic argument is that a full nonlinear model of any significant economic process would be too complicated, and that it was better therefore to stick with tractable linear models, while keeping in mind that the real world is nonlinear:
I build models with data for a living, and I am acutely aware of the problems with using non-linear models to make any sort of accurate predictions – even with huge volumes of data to calibrate it with.
It is not that the systems are linear. They are hugely complex. My problem is that they are too complex to model even with non-linear models. My belief is that linear models do have to be used but with a full understanding of the non-linearity of real life. Also, the whole building of macro-models from first principles, based on ‘rational’ agents, is a complete joke of a way to design a model that is supposed to be used in the real world.
While these points have some validity (especially Ari’s jibe at “rational agent” models), this criticism approaches complex systems from the wrong end—the “complicated” as opposed to “complex” end. A core lesson from complex systems analysis (dating right from its first discovery by Poincare back in 1899, and manifest in the first simulation of a complex system by Lorenz in 1963) is that a simple system can demonstrate complex behaviour. And a simple complex system—yes, I know that sounds like an oxymoron, but bear with me—can tell you most of what you need to know about a complicated complex system.
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