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Thai Rice Crop In Crosshairs Of El Nino As Farmers Are Warned About Water Shortages

May 13, 2023

Thai Rice Crop In Crosshairs Of El Nino As Farmers Are Warned About Water Shortages

A disruptive El Nino pattern might impact rice production in Thailand, the world’s second-biggest exporter of the grain that feeds half the world’s population.

Bangkok Post reported farmers are being asked by the Office of the National Water Resources “to grow only one rice crop this coming season as rainfall will be below average because of the El Nino weather pattern.”

Surasee Kittimonthon, the ONWR secretary-general, said the rainy season, which usually begins in late May, will be delayed with periods of intermittent rain in June.

Kittimonthon said ONWR had devised a plan for increased water preservation within the country’s reservoir system.

“We can provide water to farmers for the first rice crop, starting in the rainy season.

“But for the second or third crops, we would like farmers’ cooperation to grow other plants that need less water to help limit the water shortage,” he said.

Rice production requires substantial amounts of water and relies heavily on irrigation systems and sufficient rainfall. It’s an early warning sign of how El Nino is set to wreak havoc on the global food system this year.

We told readers last month the weather-altering phenomenon had a high probability of forming. We said, “If El Niño does form, it could result in heavy rainfall and heatwaves in specific regions across the globe, potentially causing disruptions in the agricultural industry.”

And days ago, we informed readers about record-breaking heatwaves in Asia and Europe in a note titled “Is El Nino Supercharging Heatwave Across Asia?” 

Separately, earlier this month, Fitch Solutions published a report that forecasts this year’s global rice production will log its biggest shortfall in two decades.  

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Global Rice Shortage Looms, Set To Be The Biggest In Decades

May 3, 2023

Global Rice Shortage Looms, Set To Be The Biggest In Decades

Rice is the primary food source for over half of the global population, especially in emerging markets, where it plays a crucial role in feeding people. Last year, we highlighted the potential for a severe global rice shortage. A new report reveals that rice production this year could be at its lowest in decades.

A report by Fitch Solutions forecasts this year’s global rice production will log its biggest shortfall in two decades. The deficit will be a major headache for countries relying on grain imports.

“At the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices,” Fitch Solutions’ commodities analyst Charles Hart told CNBC. 

Sliding rice production in China, the US, and Europe is already causing grain prices to increase for 3.5 billion people, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region — this region of the world accounts for 90% of the world’s rice consumption.

“Given that rice is the staple food commodity across multiple markets in Asia, prices are a major determinant of food price inflation and food security, particularly for the poorest households,” Hart said.

Hart said this year’s global shortfall would be around 8.7 million tons, the largest global rice deficit since 2003/2004 of 18.6 million.

As a result of tightening global supplies, rough rice futures trading on the CBoT recently peaked at $18 per cwt, the highest level since September 2008. Cwt is a unit of measurement for certain commodities such as rice.

CNBC provides a breakdown of why rice supplies are strained.

There’s a short supply of rice as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, as well as bad weather in rice-producing economies like China and Pakistan.

In the second half of last year, swaths of farmland in the world’s largest rice producer China were plagued by heavy summer monsoon rains and floods.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

“Situation Is Really Precarious”: World’s Largest Rice Exporter Faces Output Decline Amid Heatwave

August 6, 2022

“Situation Is Really Precarious”: World’s Largest Rice Exporter Faces Output Decline Amid Heatwave

The effects of elevated food prices have rippled worldwide and forced governments to impose price controls and trade restrictions. Price increases are due to supply constraints driven by several variables, including high energy prices, geopolitics, and weather. Ukraine restarted maritime transport of crops to the rest of the world, forcing grain prices to slip, though the food crisis is far from over.

We pointed out in April that the next challenge for the global food supply could be a plunge in rice production (read: here). Fast forward months later, and our suspicions appear to be right as India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has seen planting areas of the crop decline by 13% due to heatwaves and drought.

India accounts for 40% of the global rice trade, and a decline in production will complicate India’s domestic inflation fight. It could result in export restrictions, leading to few supplies for the rest of the world.

In the last two weeks, prices in India have soared more than 10% in top growing states such as West Bengal, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh due to lack of rainfall and crop output concerns, Mukesh Jain, a director at Sponge Enterprises Pvt., a rice trader, told Bloomberg. He expects export prices to reach $400 a ton by next month from $365 this week.

Rice feeds half of humanity and is vital for political and economic stability across Asia. Supply disruptions due to potential trade restrictions by India could create shortages and rising prices elsewhere.

There’s still hope crop output could recover as the monsoon season is expected to produce normal rainfall through September. However, some farmers sounded the alarm output is expected to drop significantly.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Rice Production Set To Plunge 10%, Threatening Half Of Humanity

April 20, 2022

Global Rice Production Set To Plunge 10%, Threatening Half Of Humanity

Farmers in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam — the largest rice-producing countries could experience reduced output due to soaring fertilizer prices.

The International Rice Research Institute warns that harvests could plunge as much as 10% in the next season, equating to about 36 million tons of rice, or enough food to feed a half billion people, according to Bloomberg.

Chemical fertilizers, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, are the most applied nutrients for high-yielding rice cultivation. Farmers have been particularly vulnerable to soaring fertilizer prices as some have reduced the amount of nutrients to save costs. This threatens future harvests as production declines could stoke food inflation for a crop that feeds half of humanity.

Humnath Bhandari, a senior agricultural economist at the institute, said the 10% drop in global rice production is a “very conservative estimate.” He said if the Ukraine conflict continued and fertilizer prices remained high and supply limited, then the decline of rice output could be even more severe. This may trigger a full-blown global food crisis, similar to the one that the UN has been warning about.

Russia and Belarus are big suppliers of every major type of crop nutrient. Western countries have sanctioned both, which have limited fertilizers shipments to the rest of the world, crimping supply and why prices are soaring. On top of this, Moscow has reduced or halted nutrient exports.

Nguyen Binh Phong, the owner of a fertilizer shop in Vietnam’s Kien Giang province, said nutrient costs have soared three-fold over the past year, forcing farmers in the region to reduce fertilizer use by up to 20% because of rising prices.

“When the farmers cut fertilizer use, they accept that they will get lower profit,” Phong said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

GMO Golden Rice Offers No Nutritional Benefits Says FDA

June 7, 2018

GMO Golden Rice Offers No Nutritional Benefits Says FDA

Golden Rice grain compared to white rice grain in screenhouse of Golden Rice plants. Photo: International Rice Institute.

The biotech industry and its supporters have promoted GMO Golden Rice for decades as an urgently needed solution to vitamin A deficiency.

But, in a surprising twist, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has concluded its consultation process on Golden Rice by informing its current developers, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), that Golden Rice does not meet the nutritional requirements to make a health claim.

Golden Rice refers to GMO rice plants modified to produce beta-carotene (also called provitamin A) in their grain. This latest version of Golden Rice contains three added genes. Two specify enzymes in the β-carotene biosynthesis pathway, and are taken from bacteria and maize. The third specifies a (non-antibiotic) selectable marker protein used in the modification process (Paine et al. 2005).

First described in the scientific literature over 18 years ago by public sector researchers (Ye et al. 2000), various public and private sector iterations of Golden Rice have subsequently been produced (Bollenidi et al. 2014). These represent repeated efforts to increase beta-carotene levels, while still maintaining plant vigor and yield.

The Golden Rice version submitted to FDA by IRRI, called event GR2E, is the only Golden Rice to have ever been submitted for regulatory approval. In 2017, it was approved for import by regulators in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. Originally developed by Syngenta, Golden Rice GR2E is now funded by the Gates Foundation.

The letter containing FDA’s statement on GR2E’s lack of nutritional benefit was posted on May 25th, 2018 (FDA 2018b).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Perennial Rice: In Search of a Greener, Hardier Staple Crop

March 8, 2015

Perennial Rice: In Search of a Greener, Hardier Staple Crop

Ten thousand years ago, China’s ancient inhabitants harvested the grains of wild rice, a perennial grass growing up to 15 feet tall in bogs and streams. The grains were small and red, maturing in waves and often shattering into the water. Their descendants transformed that grain into the high-yielding annual crop that today feeds half the world’s population. When agronomist F. H. King toured China’s meticulously maintained rice terraces in 1909, he called the men and women who tilled them “farmers of forty centuries.” To him, they seemed to have unlocked the secret to conserving soil and maintaining agricultural fertility indefinitely.

Today, with the climate changing and far more land under intensive cultivation, rice farmers face a less certain future. In parts of Asia, melting glaciers threaten to dry up water supplies for irrigated paddies, while higher temperatures and unpredictable rainfall stress rain-fed fields. In uplands worldwide, where farmers grow rice on steep hillsides using slash-and-burn techniques, fallow periods are growing shorter and severe erosion is undermining both productivity and ecosystem health.

An international network of scientists is working toward a radical solution: perennial rice that yields grain for many years without replanting. By crossing domesticated rice with its wild predecessors, they hope to create deep-rooted varieties that hold soils in place, require less labor, and survive extremes of temperature and water supply. Plant breeders have been trying to do the same for wheat, sorghum, and other crops for decades.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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