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GDP Estimates Crash on Dismal Economic Reports
GDP Estimates Crash on Dismal Economic Reports GDP Estimates are well below 1.0% following industrial production and retail sales estimates. The GDPNow model forecast for the fourth quarter took a dive today to 0.3% from 1.0% a week ago. Similarly, the Nowcast model fell to 0.4% from 0.7%. Pat Higgins at GDPNow explains: “The GDPNow model estimate for real […]
Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Retail Sales Crumble
Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Retail Sales Crumble Amid the absence of US macro data due to the shutdown, it seems Canada (and China) are making up for it – by crushing the goldilocks dream. Canada retail sales fell 0.9% to C$50.4B in November, according to Statistics Canada (which did not need to ask the US […]
Loonie Tumbles To 6-Week Lows After Inflation, Retail Sales Slump
Loonie Tumbles To 6-Week Lows After Inflation, Retail Sales Slump The loonie has tumbled to six-week lows (above 1.31/USD) following dismal prints for retail sales and inflation this morning. Against expectations of a 0.1% rise MoM, Canadian core retail sales slumped 0.4% MoM in August. This is the first drop in retail sales since 2017… […]
The Brick & Mortar Retail Meltdown, February Update
The Brick & Mortar Retail Meltdown, February Update And private equity is all over it. The brick-and-mortar retail meltdown – despite protestations to the contrary – continues with a mechanistic air of inevitability. This started in 2015, took off in 2016, and picked up pace and magnitude in 2017, a progression I documented along the […]
Global Growth? Retail Sales Flop in US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia
Global Growth? Retail Sales Flop in US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia Consumers unexpectedly threw in the towel in 5 countries but the central banks and the IMF insist everything is fine. On February 14, I noted US Retail Sales Dive, Negative Revisions Too. This will impact both 4th quarter and first quarter GDP estimates. On […]
Loonie Tumbles As Canadian Retail Sales Crashed In December
Loonie Tumbles As Canadian Retail Sales Crashed In December But, but, but… it was Christmas!! Canadian retail sales have come out and they are shockingly low – even after bad weather and higher rates on big ticket items had kept surveys particularly low for December. The headline print was -0.8% MoM (expectations were for no […]
Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Inflation, Retail Sales Plunge
Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Inflation, Retail Sales Plunge A slew of disappointing data out of Canada has sent the Loonie tumbling this morning (despite higher oil prices). Canadian Retail Sales and Inflation data missed across the board… Multi-year lows in CPI, Core CPI, and Retail Sales… And the result is a tumbling Loonie as expectations of […]
Why is the MSM Covering Up Recessionary Data?
WHY IS THE MSM COVERING UP RECESSIONARY DATA? The Census Bureau put out their monthly retail sales report this morning. During good times, the MSM would be hailing the tremendous increases as proof the consumer was flush with cash and all was well with the economy. Considering 70% of our GDP is dependent upon consumer […]
This is What’s in Store for the Real Economy
This is What’s in Store for the Real Economy There is no escape. The Census Bureau announced today that total business sales in January did what they’d been doing relentlessly for the past one-and-a-half years: they fell! This time by 1.1% from a year ago, to $1.296 trillion, and by 5% from their peak in July […]
Forget Deflation. Stagflation Arrives in Canada
Forget Deflation. Stagflation Arrives in Canada Worst Plunge in Retail Sales since 2008. Inflation Whacks Consumers Retail sales in Canada fell 2.2% in December from November on a seasonally adjusted basis, but not adjusted for inflation, to C$43.2 billion. “Declines were widespread as lower sales were reported in 10 of 11 subsectors, representing 97% of […]
Abenomics Is Dead – Japanese Data Collapses Across The Board
Abenomics Is Dead – Japanese Data Collapses Across The Board With recent JPY strength not helping, last week ended on a down-note for Japan as its jobless rate ticked up from 3.1% to 3.3% (the biggest rise since January) and Household spending collapsed. However, as the last week of the year begins, things have not improved as a […]
Living a Lie
Living a Lie “Above all, don’t lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others. And having no respect he ceases to love.” – Fyodor […]
Ignore the Media Bullsh*t–Retail Implosion Proves We Are In Recession
Ignore the Media Bullsh*t–Retail Implosion Proves We Are In Recession Here we go again. The dying legacy media will continue to support the status quo, who provide their dwindling advertising revenue, by papering over the truth with platitudes, lies, and misinformation. I have been detailing the long slow death of retail in America for the […]
It’s Not Just China You Should Be Worried About
It’s Not Just China You Should Be Worried About Junk Rolling Over TIVOLI, New York – Chinese stocks fell hard on Tuesday. The Shanghai Composite plunged more than 6% – the biggest fall in three weeks. Our research team in Beijing is downcast. “Nobody here wants to hear about stocks,” they tell us. Image credit: […]
End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop
End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop The U.S. stock market has finally hit a speed bump after more than six years of a Fed- and QE-driven rally. The S&P 500 is up 232% since March of 2009 despite this unprecedented stimulus in the feeblest economic recovery in history. But since […]
