Home » Posts tagged 'retail sales'

Tag Archives: retail sales

GDP Estimates are well below 1.0% following industrial production and retail sales estimates.

The GDPNow model forecast for the fourth quarter took a dive today to 0.3% from 1.0% a week ago. Similarly, the Nowcast model fell to 0.4% from 0.7%.

Pat Higgins at GDPNow explains:

“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on November 15, down from 1.0 percent on November 8. After this morning’s retail trade releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning’s industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.1 percent and -2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -4.4 percent, respectively.”

Real gross private domestic development is now clocking at -4.4%.

Wow.

Recession Warnings

A bit ago I noted Industrial Production Dives and It’s Not All Strike Related.

Trucking provide another recession warning: Freight Volumes Negative YoY for 11th Straight Month

Donald Broughton, founder of Broughton Capital and author the Cass Freight Index says the index signals contraction, possibly by the end of the year. That’s just one one month away.

Strike Resolved

The GM strike is resolved. We will soon find out how much strike-related damage there was, but the risk is over-estimating the rebound going forward.

The trade deal with China is still unresolved.

Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Retail Sales Crumble

January 23, 2019

Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Retail Sales Crumble

Amid the absence of US macro data due to the shutdown, it seems Canada (and China) are making up for it – by crushing the goldilocks dream.

Canada retail sales fell 0.9% to C$50.4B in November, according to Statistics Canada (which did not need to ask the US for the data this time). This was well below the expected decline of 0.6% and Retail sales from August to October were all revised downwards.

Sales fell in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 75% of total retail trade

Largest upside contributor on month was the general merchandise category, 0.20 percentage points
Largest downside contributor on month was the gasoline stations category, -0.53 percentage points

And the reaction was immediate weakness in the Loonie…

On the bright side, Cannabis sales total C$54 million in November.

Loonie Tumbles To 6-Week Lows After Inflation, Retail Sales Slump

October 19, 2018

Loonie Tumbles To 6-Week Lows After Inflation, Retail Sales Slump

The loonie has tumbled to six-week lows (above 1.31/USD) following dismal prints for retail sales and inflation this morning.

Against expectations of a 0.1% rise MoM, Canadian core retail sales slumped 0.4% MoM in August. This is the first drop in retail sales since 2017…

Worse still was consumer price inflation plunged in September, dropping 0.4% MoM, deflating for the second month in a row…

We suspect this is not helped by the collapse in Western Canada Select prices…

And the biggest reaction so far is in the Loonie…

But, on the bright side, weed is legal now, eh?!

The Brick & Mortar Retail Meltdown, February Update

March 2, 2018

The Brick & Mortar Retail Meltdown, February Update

And private equity is all over it.

The brick-and-mortar retail meltdown – despite protestations to the contrary – continues with a mechanistic air of inevitability. This started in 2015, took off in 2016, and picked up pace and magnitude in 2017, a progression I documented along the way. Now in 2018, there has been a brutal January and here’s the even more brutal February.

Bon-Ton Stores filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on February 4. The filing by the regional department store chain based in Pennsylvania was the largest bankruptcy filing by a retailer in 2018. It had been discussing with its creditors a restructuring of its debts, but that had turned out to be fruitless.

This was a surprise to no one. In September, the company hired bankruptcy advisers to deal with nearly $1 billion in debt. In December, it defaulted on an interest payment. In January, after the 30-day grace period, it announced it had entered into forbearance agreements with some of its lenders. Over the make-or-break holiday selling period, sales fell 4.2%. On February 1, it announced more details on a new wave of store closings, involving 42 of its 260 stores. Liquidation sales in those stores began on February 1. Its shares are in the process of becoming worthless.

Bi-Lo is preparing to file for bankruptcy as soon as March and shutter nearly 200 stores, Bloomberg reported on February 16. The company, which owns the Winn Dixie, Harveys, Fresco y Mas, and Bi-Low supermarkets, is buckling under $1 billion of debt. About 50,000 jobs could be affected.

The low-margin supermarket business has entered a period of major upheaval – not from online competition which hasn’t taken off yet in the US, but from competitors with deep pockets that are barreling into the stagnating market, including the expansion plans of German deep-discounter Aldi, and the moves by the likes of Walmart and Target.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Growth? Retail Sales Flop in US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia

February 23, 2018

Global Growth? Retail Sales Flop in US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia

Consumers unexpectedly threw in the towel in 5 countries but the central banks and the IMF insist everything is fine.

On February 14, I noted US Retail Sales Dive, Negative Revisions Too. This will impact both 4th quarter and first quarter GDP estimates.

On February 22, Bloomberg reported Canadian Retail Sales Drop Unexpectedly.

“Receipts fell 0.8 percent to C$49.6 billion in the last month of 2017, Statistics Canada reported Thursday. It was the biggest monthly decline since March 2016. Economists were expecting no change during the month.”

On February 16, the Financial Times reported UK retail sales figures disappoint. The results were positive but barely.

“The volume of retail sales grew by 0.1 per cent month-on-month, far below analysts’ expectations of 0.5 per cent growth in January, according to a poll from Thomson Reuters. On the year, sales were up by 1.6 per cent, from 1.4 per cent, far below expectations for a 2.6 per cent rise.”

On January 31, Reuters reported German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall in December.

On February 6, Business Insider reported Australian retail spending for the Christmas was far weaker than many were expecting.

Given the Fed’s outlook and increasing expectations of four rate hikes plus tapering in the US, tapering in the EU, and rate hikes in the UK, such reports must be meaningless.

Also note the IMF made a “Brighter Forecast” for the global economy in January. When has the IMF ever been wrong?

Loonie Tumbles As Canadian Retail Sales Crashed In December

February 22, 2018

Loonie Tumbles As Canadian Retail Sales Crashed In December

But, but, but… it was Christmas!!

Canadian retail sales have come out and they are shockingly low – even after bad weather and higher rates on big ticket items had kept surveys particularly low for December.

The headline print was -0.8% MoM (expectations were for no change)

Worse still, sales ex autos plunged 1.8% MoM (against expectations of a 0.3% gain) – the biggest drop since Jan 2015…

As Citi notes, these numbers, while often volatile, were not expected to be a big mover, but the extent of the miss has triggered some activity in USDCAD, which has jumped up to 1.2736 already and may have more to run.

Loonie is at its weakest vs the dollar since 12/21…

Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Inflation, Retail Sales Plunge

September 23, 2016

Loonie Tumbles After Canadian Inflation, Retail Sales Plunge

A slew of disappointing data out of Canada has sent the Loonie tumbling this morning (despite higher oil prices).

Canadian Retail Sales and Inflation data missed across the board…

Multi-year lows in CPI, Core CPI, and Retail Sales…

And the result is a tumbling Loonie as expectations of further rate cuts loom…

Charts: Bloomberg

Why is the MSM Covering Up Recessionary Data?

April 14, 2016

WHY IS THE MSM COVERING UP RECESSIONARY DATA?

The Census Bureau put out their monthly retail sales report this morning. During good times, the MSM would be hailing the tremendous increases as proof the consumer was flush with cash and all was well with the economy. Considering 70% of our GDP is dependent upon consumer spending, you would think this data point would be pretty important in judging how well Americans are really doing.

It’s not perfect, because the issuance of debt to consumers to purchase autos, furniture, appliances and electronics can juice the retail sales numbers and create the false impression of strength. That’s what has been going on with auto sales for the last two years.

The retail sales figures have been propped up by the issuance of subprime auto loans to deadbeats, 7 year 0% interest loans to good credit customers, and an all-time high in leases (aka 3 year rentals). Despite this Fed induced auto loan scheme, retail sales have still been pitiful, as the average American has been left with stagnant wages, 0% interest on their minuscule savings, surging rent and home prices, and drastic increases in their healthcare costs due to Obamacare.

The retail sales for March, reported this morning, were disastrous and further confirmed a myriad of other economic indicators that the country is in recession. GDP for the first quarter will be negative. And this time they can’t blame it on snow in the winter. They have already doubly seasonally adjusted the figures, and they will still be negative. Retail sales in the first quarter were atrocious. It might make a critical thinking person question the establishment storyline of solid job growth being peddled by politicians and their MSM mouthpieces. If people had good paying jobs, they would be spending money.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This is What’s in Store for the Real Economy

March 16, 2016

This is What’s in Store for the Real Economy

There is no escape.

The Census Bureau announced today that total business sales in January did what they’d been doing relentlessly for the past one-and-a-half years: they fell! This time by 1.1% from a year ago, to $1.296 trillion, and by 5% from their peak in July 2014.

They’re now back where they’d been in January 2013. Sales are adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. And since January 2013, the consumer price index rose 2.8%! This is why the US economy has looked so crummy.

That’s bad enough. But it gets much worse.

Total business sales are composed of three categories: sales by merchant wholesalers (33% of total), by manufacturers (36% of total), and by retailers (30% of total).

Sales by merchant wholesalers took the biggest hit: they plunged 6.4% from January a year ago, to $433.1 billion.

Symptomatic for the lousy state of business investment, sales of professional equipment dropped 4.1% year-over-year, with computer equipment and software sales plunging 10.2%. Sales of electrical equipment, the largest category among durable goods, fell 5.0%. Sales of machinery fell 1.4%. And “misc. durable” sales plunged 8.6%.

The economy’s kick-butt, take-no-prisoners winner? Sales of drugs soared 11.0% to $53.6 billion. As we found out today via Express Scripts Drug Trend Report, those sales increases weren’t caused by people suddenly taking more drugs; they were caused largely by price gouging.

Turns out, prices of brand-name prescription drugs soared 16.2% in 2015! One third of these drugs had price increases of over 20%! On average, they’re up nearly 100% since 2011. This is a patent-protected, monopolistic industry that has managed to rip off every consumer and government in the US. And there’s more. Express Scripts:

Moreover, the industry faced opportunistic manufacturers who exploited monopolies with old generic medications and captive pharmacy arrangements, and ongoing scheming by compounding pharmacies to promote sales of high-priced, no-value compound medications.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Forget Deflation. Stagflation Arrives in Canada

February 20, 2016

Forget Deflation. Stagflation Arrives in Canada

Worst Plunge in Retail Sales since 2008. Inflation Whacks Consumers

Retail sales in Canada fell 2.2% in December from November on a seasonally adjusted basis, but not adjusted for inflation, to C$43.2 billion. “Declines were widespread as lower sales were reported in 10 of 11 subsectors, representing 97% of retail trade,” Statistics Canada said.

It blamed the weather. I mean, really. “Later snowfalls and unseasonably warm weather in many parts of Canada may have contributed to lower seasonal purchases.” It said this right after saying that the decline was widespread, and therefore beyond winter jackets, thermal underwear, and fuzzy earmuffs.

Motor vehicle sales dropped 3.9%, with sales at new car dealers falling 4.1%. In dollar terms, given the magnitude of motor vehicle sales, it was the largest decrease among all subsectors. But wait… “Unseasonably warm weather” in the winter is great for car sales, so they should have jumped!

On the other hand, the sub-category of “other motor vehicles dealers” includes snowmobiles, and there sales plunged 6.7%, down for the third month in a row. In this subsector of motor vehicle sales, the weather likely did played a role. But then, sales also fell 2.5% at used car dealers though warmer weather should have really helped them.

Which leaves us stumped about the weather excuse.

Then the really bad news, StatCan put it: “Store types typically associated with holiday shopping registered weaker sales in December,” with sales at general merchandise stores down 2.2%, falling for the second consecutive month in a row; clothing and accessory stores down 3.6%; electronics and appliance stores down 3.0%, the fourth month of falling sales in six; sales at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores down 2.3%.

And it was spread across the country. Retail sales dropped in nine of the 10 provinces and in all 3 territories. Only exception: tiny Prince Edward Island, where retails sales were flat.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Abenomics Is Dead – Japanese Data Collapses Across The Board

December 27, 2015

Abenomics Is Dead – Japanese Data Collapses Across The Board

With recent JPY strength not helping, last week ended on a down-note for Japan as its jobless rate ticked up from 3.1% to 3.3% (the biggest rise since January) and Household spending collapsed. However, as the last week of the year begins, things have not improved as a double whammy of awfulness just hit the shores of Abe’s nation with retail sales (worst since the tsunami) and industrial production ugly and missing across the board. We are sure, of course, that just one more dose of faith-based QE will fix this.

Household Spending has been a disaster…

And Retail Sales is therefore terrible… (away from the effects of the pre- and post-tax hike moves, this is the worst monthtly drop in Retail Sales since The 2011 Tsunami!!!)

And so Industrial Production is lagging…

So to summarize – with JPY strength amid carry unwinds, Kuroda worriedly stuck on the sidelines, and global economic collapse, Japan’s Abenomics ‘program’ just created the following disaster trhee years later:

Household Spending plunges 2.9% YoY – worst since March (post-tax-hike)
Jobless Rate jumps to 3.3% (from 3.1%)
Industrial Production drops 1.0% MoM – worst in 3 months
Retail Trade tumbles 1.0% YoY – biggest drop since March (post-tax-hike)
Retail Sales plunges 2.5% MoM – Worst drop since Fukushima Tsunami (absent tax-hike)

But apart from that – everything is awesome.

* * *

Finally, in the interests of keeping things light over the holiday period, we note that when asked if this means trouble ahead for President Shinzo Abe, he allegedly replied “Depends.”

Living a Lie

December 11, 2015

Living a Lie

“Above all, don’t lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others. And having no respect he ceases to love.” – Fyodor Dostoyevsky, The Brothers Karamazov

The lies we tell ourselves are only exceeded by the lies perpetrated by those controlling the levers of our society. We’ve lost respect for ourselves and others, transforming from citizens with obligations to consumers with desires. The love of mammon has left our country a hollowed out, debt ridden shell of what it once was. When I see the data from surveys about the amount of debt being carried by people in this country and match it up with the totals reported by the Federal Reserve, I’m honestly flabbergasted that so many people choose to live a lie. By falling for the false materialistic narrative of having it all today, millions of Americans have enslaved themselves in trillions of debt. The totals are breathtaking to behold:

Total mortgage debt – $13.6 trillion ($9.9 trillion residential)

Total credit card debt – $924 billion

Total auto loan debt – $1.0 trillion

Total student loan debt – $1.3 trillion

Other consumer debt – $300 billion

With 118 million occupied households in the U.S., that comes to $145,000 per household. But, when you consider only 74 million of the households are owner occupied and approximately 26 million of those are free and clear of mortgage debt, that leaves millions of people with in excess of $200,000 in mortgage debt. Keeping up with the Joneses has taken on a new meaning as buying a 6,000 sq ft McMansion with 3% down became the standard operating procedure for a vast swath of image conscious Americans. When you are up to your eyeballs in debt, you don’t own anything. You are living a lie.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ignore the Media Bullsh*t–Retail Implosion Proves We Are In Recession

October 15, 2015

Ignore the Media Bullsh*t–Retail Implosion Proves We Are In Recession

Here we go again. The dying legacy media will continue to support the status quo, who provide their dwindling advertising revenue, by papering over the truth with platitudes, lies, and misinformation. I have been detailing the long slow death of retail in America for the last few years. The data and facts are unequivocal. Therefore, the establishment and their media mouthpieces need to suppress the truth.

They spin every terrible report in the most positive way possible. They blame lousy retail results on the weather. They blame them on calendar effects. They blame them on gasoline sales plunging. That one is funny, because we heard for months that retail spending would surge because people had more money in their pockets from the huge decline in gasoline prices.

September retail sales were grudgingly reported by the Census Bureau this morning and they were absolutely dreadful. This followed an atrocious August report. The MSM couldn’t blame it on snow, cold, flooding, drought, or even swarms of locusts. So they just buried the story in their small print headlines. The propaganda media machine had nothing. They continue to spew the drivel about a 5.1% unemployment rate as a reflection of a booming jobs market. If we really have a booming jobs market, we would have a booming retail sector. The stagnant retail market reveals the jobs data to be fraudulent. The 94 million people supposedly not in the job market can’t buy shit with their good looks.

Despite the storyline about consumer austerity being the reason for sluggish spending, the facts prove otherwise. Consumer spending accounted for 68% of GDP in 2008 at the peak. Seven years later it still represents 68% of GDP. The difference is the spending has shifted dramatically towards services since the Wall Street created financial crisis. Spending on services has grown by 31% versus 20% for goods since 2008. Guess what has caused that surge?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It’s Not Just China You Should Be Worried About

August 21, 2015

It’s Not Just China You Should Be Worried About

Junk Rolling Over

TIVOLI, New York – Chinese stocks fell hard on Tuesday. The Shanghai Composite plunged more than 6% – the biggest fall in three weeks. Our research team in Beijing is downcast.

“Nobody here wants to hear about stocks,” they tell us.

roulettewheel Image credit: AP

And the junkiest – and riskiest – part of the U.S. bond market has taken a dive too. Here’s that chart of the big U.S. junk bond ETF that Chris highlighted in yesterday’s Market Insight. It has completely rolled over this year…

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), daily. HYG is down 6% from its high for the year (this chart shows solely the price of HYG, it is not a total return chart including coupon payments) – click to enlarge.

Meanwhile, U.S. corporate earnings have plateaued. And according to Deutsche Bank’s David Bianco, earnings are actually falling when you exclude companies’ slick accounting adjustments to “smooth” their numbers.

The only thing left propping up Wall Street stocks, as we explained yesterday, is insider trading.

Retail Rot

Recent sales figures from America’s retailers show how deep the rot has become.

Sales have been rising at an alarmingly slow rate – just 0.5% since 2007. Between 2000 and 2007, they went up four times as fast. In the 1990s recovery, they went up six times as fast.

Especially rotten are sales at America’s four largest mall retailers – Macy’s, Kohl’s, Sears, and JC Penney. Together, their sales are falling at a 10% rate per year… or four times faster than the fall in department store sales generally. What is interesting about these four companies is that they have been among the most aggressive of the stock market manipulators.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop

June 14, 2015

End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop

The U.S. stock market has finally hit a speed bump after more than six years of a Fed- and QE-driven rally. The S&P 500 is up 232% since March of 2009 despite this unprecedented stimulus in the feeblest economic recovery in history.

But since late December 2014, U.S. stocks have gone nowhere as investors face some growing realities.

GDP, retail sales, production and exports are slowing.

The dollar’s sharp rise in recent years has crushed global exports.

Long term interest rates are rising consistently… what I call the beginning of the end of stimulus policies designed to keep rates low forever.

Meanwhile, in just six months Germany saw its key stock market, the DAX, rise nearly 50% from mid-October into early April.

Germany’s bubble has shot up 245% since March 2009 — greater than the U.S., despite its slower economy.

It won’t last!

As I’ve explained many times, starting last year Germany has the worst demographic trends of any country in the world lasting through 2022. It’s even worse than Japan’s demographic cliff in the 1990s!

There’s one reason Germany has held up as well as it has in the last year: the euro.

When the euro falls, German exports soar. Between April 2014 and March 2015 the euro fell 25%. Its long-term peak was in July 2008 at 1.60 dollars. It hit 1.05 in March — 34.5% lower!

Consider that Germany exports 50% of its GDP. That’s one of the highest ratios in the world.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Tag Archives: retail sales

Content

Post categories

Economic Links

Energy/Resource Links

Environmental Links

Geopolitical Links

Liberty Links

News Links

Other Links

Survival Skills

Post Archives by Category

Junk Rolling Over

Post navigation

Latest Posts