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What Does it Mean, Saving Rate drops to 12-Year Low when 50% of Americans Don’t Have Savings?

What Does it Mean, Saving Rate drops to 12-Year Low when 50% of Americans Don’t Have Savings?

Or what the averages are hiding.

We will start with income and see what’s left over, and for whom.

Personal income increased by 4.1% in December from a year earlier, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. This includes all income received by all persons from all sources, such as from labor, financial assets (dividends and interest income but not capital gains), business activities, homeownership (rentals), government transfers, etc.

“Real” personal income — adjusted for inflation via “chained 2009 dollars” — rose only 2.37%. This is for the US overall.

Per-capita “real” personal income – which accounts for 0.71% population growth in 2017 and measures income per individual – rose only about 1.7%. If the inflation measure even slightly understates actual inflation as experienced by these individuals, their personal income growth might go away entirely.

Next step down…

Disposable personal income – personal income less personal taxes – increased 3.9% year over year in December. This is the income that folks have available for spending or saving. “Real” disposable personal income rose 2.1%. And on a per-capita basis, it rose only 1.4%. So these are not exactly huge increases.

Not everyone is getting this income growth equally.

The economy can be divided up into layers. Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio sees a split between the top 40% of income earners for whom the economy is doing well, and the bottom 60% for whom the economy is a series of setbacks. Or by it could be 30% and 70%. Wherever the split is drawn, the smaller group of top income earners has had it good while the larger group of income earners at the bottom is struggling.

But consumers, no matter what their income levels, are trying to do their best to prop up the economy, upholding an American tradition. And they’re spending more, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US On Road To Third World

US On Road To Third World

On January 6, 2004, Senator Charles Schumer and I challenged the erroneous idea that jobs offshoring was free trade in a New York Times op-ed. Our article so astounded economists that within a few days Schumer and I were summoned to a Brookings Institution conference in Washington, DC, to explain our heresy. In the nationally televised conference, I declared that the consequence of jobs offshoring would be that the US would be a Third World country in 20 years.

That was 11 years ago, and the US is on course to descend to Third World status before the remaining nine years of my prediction have expired.

The evidence is everywhere. In September the US Bureau of the Census released its report on US household income by quintile. Every quintile, as well as the top 5%, has experienced a decline in real household income since their peaks. The bottom quintile (lower 20 percent) has had a 17.1% decline in real income from the 1999 peak (from $14,092 to $11,676). The 4th quintile has had a 10.8% fall in real income since 2000 (from $34,863 to $31,087). The middle quintile has had a 6.9% decline in real income since 2000 (from $58,058 to $54,041). The 2nd quintile has had a 2.8% fall in real income since 2007 (from $90,331 to $87,834). The top quintile has had a decline in real income since 2006 of 1.7% (from $197,466 to $194,053). The top 5% has experienced a 4.8% reduction in real income since 2006 (from $349,215 to $332,347). Only the top One Percent or less (mainly the 0.1%) has experienced growth in income and wealth.

The Census Bureau uses official measures of inflation to arrive at real income. These measures are understated. If more accurate measures of inflation are used (such as those available from shadowstats.com), the declines in real household income are larger and have been declining for a longer period. Some measures show real median annual household income below levels of the late 1960s and early 1970s.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Faith in Central Banks Dwindles

Faith in Central Banks Dwindles

Even Bloomberg Notices that Something is Amiss

As anyone who hasn’t been in a coma knows, assorted central bank interventions have failed to achieve their stated goals over the past several years. A recent article at Bloomberg focuses on their failure to reach their “inflation” targets.

Of course, this particular failure is actually reason to celebrate, as it means that consumers have at least been spared an even sharper decline in their real incomes than has been underway in spite of relatively tepid increases in consumer prices (whereby it should always be kept in mind that whether or not such price increases are considered “tepid” depends on on the composition of the basket of goods and services relevant to each individual).

inflation expectationsMarket-based inflation expectations in the major currency areas have crashed again – click to enlarge.

Of course central banks have succeeded in blowing up the money supply at truly astonishing rates since 2008, so prices in the economy have certainly been vastly distorted. The devastating effects of such price distortions are currently being visited on the oil patch, where credit-financed malinvestment on a stunning scale has occurred as a result of an erroneous appraisal of future oil prices. A slowdown in money supply growth in the US and China between 2011 and 2014 was all it took to take the wind out of the sails of this particular collective hallucination.

US-winds-down-quantitativ-012Inflating the euro alone wasn’t enough to keep oil prices afloat …
Illustration by David Simonds

To the delight of the financial industry, asset prices have been the main beneficiaries of money supply inflation, but deep down many market participants are presumably aware that the “wealth” ostensibly created by artificially pushing the prices of titles to capital to the stratosphere is just as ephemeral – it is ultimately nothing but phantom wealth. If everybody tried to cash in, it would disappear in a flash.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

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