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Fed Rate Hike Will Cause Hyperinflationary Great Depression – John Williams

Fed Rate Hike Will Cause Hyperinflationary Great Depression – John Williams

Economist John Williams says the economy is in deep trouble, and the Fed knows it.  Williams says the Fed talking up “robust economic growth” that is causing inflation is “nonsense.” Williams explains, “The one thing that is not causing inflation is ‘robust economic growth.’  So, when they talk about raising interest rates to kill this robust economic growth that’s triggering the inflation, that’s absurd, and the Fed knows it. . . . If the Fed foolishly raised rates as reflected in the payrolls as not being fully recovered, you are going to have a sharp downturn, a double dip depression here.  At the same time, you are still going to have the inflation.  You are going to end up with an inflationary depression or a hyper-inflationary Great Depression.”

According to Williams’ forecast, “In terms of a crash, I am looking for much higher inflation, maybe hyperinflation, and I am looking for the economy to crash.  You can address the inflation by personally holding physical gold and silver.”

So, jobs are going to disappear?  Williams says, “They already have, but hopefully all the effects of the pandemic will disappear, and people will get back to work, but that is not happening now.  There is no sign of it getting better.  In fact, the numbers are indicating it’s getting worse. . . . The holiday retail economy in November and December declined at the worst pace since the Great Recession.  You had a negative holiday shopping season.  That’s not a booming economy.”

On top of that, Williams says the real inflation rate is 14.8 %, if you disregard all the gimmicks the government uses to make inflation look less than what it really is.  Williams says, “That’s the highest inflation rate since the Truman Administration.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Fed is on a Mission

This Fed is on a Mission

QE Unwind starts Oct. 1. Rate hike in Dec. Low inflation, no problem.

The two-day meeting of the FOMC ended on Wednesday with a momentous announcement that has been telegraphed for months: the QE unwind begins October 1. It marks the end of an era.

The unwind will proceed at the pace and via the mechanisms announced at its June 14 meeting. The purpose is to shrink its balance sheet and undo what QE has done, thus reversing the purpose of QE.

Countless people, worried about their portfolios and real estate investments, have stated with relentless persistence that the Fed would never unwind QE – that it in fact cannot afford to unwind QE.

The vote was unanimous. Even no-rate-hike-ever and cannot-spot-housing-bubbles Neel Kashkari voted for it.

The Fed also telegraphed that it could raise its target range for the federal funds rate a third time this year, from the current range of 1.0% to 1.25%. There is only one policy meeting with a press conference left this year: December 13, when the two-day meeting ends, remains the top candidate for the next rate hike.

This has been the routine since the rate hike last December: The FOMC decides to change its monetary policy at every meeting with a press conference: December, March, June, today, and December.

Even hurricanes won’t push the Fed off track.

The Fed specifically mentioned Harvey, Irma, and Maria. No matter how destructive, they won’t impact the economy “materially” over the “medium term” and therefore won’t impact the Fed’s policies:

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship. Storm-related disruptions and rebuilding will affect economic activity in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Central Banks ARE The Crisis


Walter Langley Never morning wore to evening but some heart did break 1894
If there’s one myth -and there are many- that we should invalidate in the cross-over world of politics and economics, it‘s that central banks have saved us from a financial crisis. It’s a carefully construed myth, but it’s as false as can be. Our central banks have caused our financial crises, not saved us from them.

It really should -but doesn’t- make us cringe uncontrollably to see Bank of England governor-for-hire Mark Carney announce -straightfaced- that:

“A decade after the start of the global financial crisis, G20 reforms are building a safer, simpler and fairer financial system. “We have fixed the issues that caused the last crisis. They were fundamental and deep-seated, which is why it was such a major job.”

Or, for that matter, to see Fed chief Janet Yellen declare that there won’t be another financial crisis in her lifetime, while she’s busy-bee busy building that next crisis as we speak. These people are now saying increasingly crazy things, and that should make us pause.

Central banks don’t serve people, or even societies, as that same myth claims. They serve banks. Even if central bankers themselves believe that this is one and the same thing, that doesn’t make it true. And if they don’t understand this, they should never be let anywhere near the positions they hold.

You can pin the moment central banks went awry at any point in time you like. The Bank of England’s foundation in 1694, the Federal Reserve’s in 1913, the ECB much more recently. What’s crucial in the timing is where and when the best interests of the banks split off from those of their societies. Because that is when central banks will stop serving those societies. We are at such a -turning?!- point right now. And it’s been coming for some time, ‘slowly’ working its way towards an inevitable abyss.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Rate Hike Stock Market Crash Has Thrown Gasoline Onto An Already Raging Global Financial Inferno

The Rate Hike Stock Market Crash Has Thrown Gasoline Onto An Already Raging Global Financial Inferno

Inferno - Public DomainIf the stock market crash of last Thursday and Friday had all happened on one day, it would have been the 7th largest single day decline in U.S. history.  On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 367 points after finishing down 253 points on Thursday.  The overall decline of 620 points between the two days would have been the 7th largest single day stock market crash ever experienced in the United States if it had happened within just one trading day.  If you will remember, this is precisely what I warned would happen if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.  But when news of the rate hike first came out on Wednesday, stocks initially jumped.  This didn’t make any sense at all, and personally I was absolutely stunned that the markets had behaved so irrationally.  But then we saw that on Thursday and Friday the markets did exactly what we thought they would do.  The chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, is calling the brief rally on Wednesday “a head-fake of enormous proportions“, and analysts all over Wall Street are bracing for what could be another very challenging week ahead.

When the Federal Reserve decided to lift interest rates, they made a colossal error.  You don’t raise interest rates when a global financial crisis has already started.  That is absolutely suicidal.  It is the kind of thing that you would do if you were trying to bring down the global financial system on purpose.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Is What Happened The Last Time The Fed Hiked While The U.S. Was In Recession

This Is What Happened The Last Time The Fed Hiked While The U.S. Was In Recession

But while we disagreed with BofA’s countdown timing, we agreed with something its strategist Michael Hartnett said, namely that “gradual or otherwise, the first interest rate hike by the Fed since June 2006 marks a major inflection point for financial markets.

BofA then laid out several key factors why “this time is indeed different” when evaluating the global economy’s receptiveness to a rate hike:

  • Central banks now own over $22 trillion of financial assets, a figure that exceeds the annual GDP of US & Japan
  • Central banks have cut interest rates more than 600 times since Lehman, a rate cut once every three 3 trading days
  • Central bank financial repression created over $6 trillion of negatively-yielding global government bonds 
  • 45% of all government bonds in the world currently yield <1% (that’s $17.4 trillion of bond issues outstanding)
  • US corporate high grade bond issuance as a % of GDP has doubled to almost 30% since the introduction of ZIRP
  • US small cap 5-year rolling returns hit 30-year highs (28%) in recent quarters
  • The US equity bull market is now in the 3rd longest ever
  • 83% of global equity markets are currently supported by zero rate policies

However, to the Fed none of these matter: only the price action of the S&P500 does, which as everyone knows, is trading just shy of its all time highs so “all must be well.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Blatant Gold/Silver Manipulation Reflects The Complete Corruption Of The U.S. System

Blatant Gold/Silver Manipulation Reflects The Complete Corruption Of The U.S. System

I friend called me that morning and I told him to not get excited because when the FOMC policy decision hits the tape, they will annihilate gold and push the S&P 500 up toward 2100.   I was only 10 pts off on the S&P call, as the S&P 500 closed at 2090, up an absurd 24 points.  Gold was taken to the cleaners:

ComexGold

SPX

What’s incredible is not one mainstream media analyst or reporter questions this market action. If the premise behind the gold sell-off was a “hawkish” FOMC statement and the threat of a rate hike in December (yawn), then the exact same premise should have cause a big sell-off in stocks. Since when does the threat of tighter monetary policy not hit the stock market?

Just to recount the play-by-play in gold, the moment the FOMC announcement hit the tape, the Comex computer system was bombarded with sell orders. At this point in the trading day, the ONLY gold/silver market open is the Comex computer Globex system. In the first 30 minutes 29.6k contracts were unloaded – 2.6 million paper ounces. In the entire hour after the announcement 50.5k contracts were unloaded – 5.1 million ounces. Note that the Comex is showing around 200k ounces to be available for delivery.

The blatant, unfettered manipulation and intervention in the gold and silver market is sponsored by the Fed and the U.S. Treasury, executed by the big bullion banks and fully endorsed by the CFTC.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Yes, We Have No Bananas–or Rate Hikes

Yes, We Have No Bananas–or Rate Hikes

The world’s most powerful central bank is relying on a novelty tune to maintain the hyper-speculative status quo.


Back in the Roaring 1920s, a novelty song entitled Yes! We Have No Bananas (1923) was a major hit. The song made fun of a fruit vendor who answered “yes” to every query–even when he didn’t have the requested item–for example, bananas.

Today, in the Roaring Teens, the Federal Reserve has their own novelty tune:yes, we have no rate hikes.

Just like the always-positive fruit vendor in the 1920s who answered “yes” to every question, the Fed answers “yes” every time someone asks if they are indeed going to raise interest rates a smidgen.

Despite their automatic affirmative, we have no rate hikes. The reason why, oddly enough, goes right back to banana vendors–in this case, banana vendors in China, who are speculating on margin (i.e with borrowed money) in China’s casino stock market.

The reason why the Fed is wary of raising rates isn’t the real-world impact. As I have noted here many times, a quarter-point increase won’t torpedo any auto loan or mortgage being issued to qualified buyers.

If a buyer can’t qualify for a home loan because rates clicked up .25%, they have no business buying a house anyway–they are not qualified by any prudent lending standards.

As for subprime auto loans–the firms issuing these loans don’t care if rates click up .25%–the subprime market world of high rates and high fees is unaffected by a tiny uptick in rates.

Who’s affected by a meager .25% uptick? Speculators: every speculator from the banana vendors on the street to hedge funds gambling billions in foreign exchange markets is exposed to massive tidal forces unleashed by higher rates in the U.S.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russia Shocks With Emergency Rate Hike, Boosts Interest Rate From 10.5% To 17%

Russia Shocks With Emergency Rate Hike, Boosts Interest Rate From 10.5% To 17%

 

Following the biggest rout to the Ruble in ages, Russia – unlike Mario Draghi – instead of talking the talk decided to walk the bazooka walk and shocked all those long the USDRUB by unleashing an emergency rate hike (at 1 am in the morning) from the recently raised interest rate of 10.50% to… hold on to your hats… 17.00%, a 650 bps increase!

From the press release:

The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia has decided to increase from December 16, 2014 the key rate to 17.00% per annum. This decision was driven by the need to limit significantly increased in recent devaluation and inflation risks.

In order to enhance the effectiveness of interest rate policy loans secured by non-marketable assets or guarantees for a period of 2 to 549 days from 16 December 2014 will be granted at a floating interest rate established at the level of the key rate of the Bank of Russia increased by 1.75 percentage points (Previously these loans for a period of 2 to 90 days, provided at a fixed rate).

In addition, to enhance the capacity of credit institutions to manage their own currency liquidity was decided to increase the maximum amount of funds to repurchase auctions in foreign currency for a period of 28 days from 1.5 to 5.0 billion. US dollars, as well as on similar operations for a period of 12 months on a weekly basis.

And for the Russian-speakers, the full breakdown of rates.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

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