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The anatomy of a financial crisis

In this blog, we present the anatomy of a financial crisis. A characteristic feature of a banking crisis is that it tends to follow, more-or-less, the same path regardless of the ‘shock’ or ‘trigger’ that initiates it.

The next phase of the crisis is likely to be a global financial crisis, as we have been anticipating for quite some time (see, e.g., Q-Review 4/2017). However, few understand what a financial crisis is, though it is probably among the most feared economic phenomena of mankind.

So, let’s dive in.

The initiation

If a banking system is sound and robust, it can usually withstand financial and economic shocks.

But a banking system may be fragile. Usually this is due to high leverage levels, where banks have either lent aggressively or carry risky financial investments on their balance sheets—usually both. Banks can also have a weak financial position, with chronically low profitability and insufficient reserves. As we have explained earlier, this is exactly the state the European banking sector finds itself in.

The onset of a financial crisis requires a trigger. The most common is a recession or the expectation of recession among consumers and investors.

Recession leads to diminished income and defaults by both corporations and households. This increases the share of non-performing loans in bank loan portfolios, reducing the value of loan collateral and increasing bank risks and capital needs. As write-downs and losses increase, mistrust among other banks and depositors and investors does as well. The bank’s share price will usually start to reflect this.

A ‘bank run’

If suspicion spreads, banks will be apprehensive about counterparty risk and will be unwilling to lend to one another even on an overnight basis.  If allowed to continue, this will have a calamitous impact on liquidity in money markets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Staying Ahead Of The Shortages: What To Stock Up On For The Coming Year

Staying Ahead Of The Shortages: What To Stock Up On For The Coming Year

While a lot of people are concerned about food shortages, one should not forget that there are a lot of items that make life easier or at least more enjoyable that come from abroad. A lot of these items specifically come from China and India. I am going to mention a few other things that are mostly made in the USA but that may potentially be in short supply as a result of the pandemic.

Food and water are primary concerns as they should be but what about these other things. I have compiled this list of things that you may want to consider acquiring if you don’t think you have enough to get through the next 6 months to a year.

Do what you can with what financial resources and ingenuity you have. You don’t have to jump on buying everything I talk about all at once. Sometimes people get caught up thinking that they have to do it all at once and that is not true. I presented this information so you can use it over the coming months to determine your preparedness needs and plan accordingly. I think this winter is going to be a difficult one and that the sooner you start planning the better.

That being said, I cannot predict what is going to happen but I can tell you that if you put back things you know you are going to need sooner rather than later than in the worst case you are prepared and in the best case you are ahead of the game and won’t have to buy those things later and may have some extra funds to put towards things later.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s Covid Cover-Up, Economic War And The Elites Who Benefit

China’s Covid Cover-Up, Economic War And The Elites Who Benefit

“Actually, as Winston well knew, it was only four years since Oceania had been at war with Eastasia and in alliance with Eurasia. But that was merely a piece of furtive knowledge, which he happened to possess because his memory was not satisfactorily under control. Officially the change of partners had never happened. Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia. The enemy of the moment always represented absolute evil, and it followed that any past or future agreement with him was impossible…” – George Orwell, 1984

The problem with wars, beyond all the death and destruction they cause, is that they are almost never fought for the reasons that governments claim. In most cases there is an underlying agenda which the public may or may not discover many decades later, and such agendas are NOT for our benefit. Wars rarely erupt over mere unplanned circumstance. Wars are rarely random.

War is a tool for social engineering because it creates widespread crisis for the unprepared masses, and as the unprepared scramble for safety, the state can institute authoritarian powers they never could have asserted in peacetime. Not only this, but in our modern era over the past century there has been a distinct pattern following the aftermath of each war in which power and governance is centralized. Every time disaster strikes, the proposed solution is centralization and global government. You would think the political elites would offer some new ideas after 100 years, but no, they only have one idea that they try to sell to us relentlessly.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

As The Perfect Storm Approaches, Most Americans Are Partying Instead Of Preparing

As The Perfect Storm Approaches, Most Americans Are Partying Instead Of Preparing

I can’t think of a time when Americans were more apathetic about getting prepared, and yet this is exactly the time when the urgency to get prepared should be at the highest.  Earlier today, my wife Meranda and I were discussing the fact that every single element of “the perfect storm” is coming together just as we had anticipated.  One by one, the pieces are all falling into place, and I share the most recent things that my research has uncovered with all of you on a daily basis.  Unfortunately, most Americans are absolutely convinced that there is no reason to get prepared for hard times because everything is going to be just great.  In America today, most people either believe that the future is going to be totally wonderful or that the future will be totally wonderful once we get rid of Trump.  Because so many of us have adopted one of these false narratives, most Americans are partying instead of preparing, and that is going to mean big trouble when things really start going haywire.

Are you familiar with “the rule of three”?  I just looked it up on Google, and this is how it is defined…

“You can survive for 3 Minutes without air (oxygen) or in icy water. You can survive for 3 Hours without shelter in a harsh environment (unless in icy water) You can survive for 3 Days without water (if sheltered from a harsh environment) You can survive for 3 Weeks without food (if you have water and shelter)”

Of course these numbers are not exact.  For example, many have gone without food for more than 3 weeks without serious problems.  But in general, this is a pretty good guideline for survival.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Preparation is Vital. 2019 is Destined for Chaos

Preparation is Vital. 2019 is Destined for Chaos

As you make your New Year’s resolutions, make sure you allot room for some much needed protection as we head into 2019 and beyond.

It may not be the rosy picture many of you were hoping for, but sadly, 2019 appears to be destined for increased chaos, turmoil and outright confusion.

The chief driver of this will undoubtedly be the current disheveled state of affairs we are seeing unfold in the United States.

As we enter another week of government shutdowns, we are getting just a small sample of what this year has in store. We haven’t seen anything yet, and I believe the madness witnessed throughout 2018 was just an opening act.

President Trump is being challenged on all sides, and I believe at this point moving forward we will see some very serious and drastic changes within his administration, as he rapidly clears house of anyone he believes belongs to the “old establishment”, replacing them with those whom he deems “loyal” to him.

In addition to this, we are going to see him use every weapon in his arsenal to jam through as much of his agenda as he possibly can within his legal powers.

This will enrage his opponents and embolden his die-hard supporters, all while doing damage to the system as a whole in the long run.

At this point, from a personal perspective, the left has left him little-to-no options, as he now fights for his and his family’s survival—all of whom his opponents would love to see behind bars, no matter the ramifications this would cause to the very fabric of the United States.

Meanwhile, emboldened by their recent victories, the radical far-left elements within the Democratic party are going to come fast and hard at Trump, attempting to take him down as viciously as they can.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Prepared Are You? Let’s Find Out.

How Prepared Are You? Let’s Find Out.

Planning without practice is essentially worthless

We’re pleased to announce the first-ever Peak Prosperity Resilience Challenge.

Over an upcoming weekend in January 2019 (specifc dates to be announced soon) participating individuals will turn off their electricity from Friday at 7:00pm to 7:00pm Sunday and subsist entirely off of their existing preparations.

Are you in?

We’ll be seeking community input over the next month as we refine the particulars of this challenge; but the intention is to stress-test everyone’s current in-place emergency plans. So when the weekend arrives, no going out to the store to get new batteries, more firestarter, or a hot coffee.

A number of Peak Prosperity members proposed this idea to us in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Florence. During those storms, a lot of folks learned their emergency preps were much less robust than they had initially anticipated.

We agree this challenge is a great idea. Working out kinks and shortcomings during a practice-run like this will increase our odds of persevering through a future emergency.

Which is why we’re picking a cold winter month (for those of you in the northern hemisphere) to really push ourselves out of our comfort zones.

What will you eat? How will you stay sufficiently warm? Will you have to take steps to keep the pipes in your house from freezing? How will you communicate with the outside world? Do you have sufficient nighttime lighting? How will you occupy your time?

The goal here is to identify each of our weak areas while having some fun knowing that we’re all going through the experience together. We’ll all regroup here online once we turn the electricity back on Sunday night and compare learnings. Trust me, there will be many to share.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Selco’s SHTF Reality Check: 5 Deadly Mistakes That Preppers Are Making

Selco’s SHTF Reality Check: 5 Deadly Mistakes That Preppers Are Making

It is hard to bring the mindset of survival to the people who have not experienced a hard situation of at least some kind of survival event.

Over the many years of being connected with people who are into survival, I realize there are the same topics for discussion and people actually become fixated on those topics.

Inside those topics over the years “rules” are set and it is hard to change them. Opinions are formed and if you jump in with a different opinion, you are going to be ridiculed.

The survival community has turned in into a parody of itself. Something that should be free from the mainstream has turned into a very mainstream thing.

Misunderstandings.

Intentional false information.

The survival industry.

We are living in a society where we want it and we want it now, and what is most important we want it the easy way without effort and sweat.

This is true for the survival community, too.

That is the way survival myths (and mistakes) are born. Here are the 5 biggest mistakes that preppers make. Mistakes that can get them killed.

1) Making too specific a plan (and sticking to it)

Because of tons of information, we are being “funneled” into forming opinions about survival and especially about the reasons of possible bad events in future, possible SHTF situations, collapses or whatever you call it.

So we have preppers who are getting ready for an EMP, or an economic collapse, or an immigrant crisis, or a war, or simply a bad weather event.

In essence, there is nothing wrong with it, except some people stick so hard to one imagined” possible scenario that they do complete planning based on that scenario only.

As a result, if that scenario happens they could be good, but if any other scenario happens they are in deep trouble.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hurricane Expert Warns: “Prepare for the Worst-Case Scenario”… U.S. Could See Up to 5 Major Hurricanes in 2018

Hurricane Expert Warns: “Prepare for the Worst-Case Scenario”… U.S. Could See Up to 5 Major Hurricanes in 2018

Before 2017, there was a relatively quiet period for hurricanes. In fact, a decade went bywithout a major hurricane. But all of that changed in 2017, when monster hurricanes Irma and Harvey hit. Due to their unprecedented damage, the 2017 hurricane season became one of the most expensive on record. With nearly 200 billion dollars worth of damage, many were hoping for another quiet lull for this year, but forecasters say otherwise.

Two primary factors are critical for determining how active the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will be. One is whether El Niño develops and the other is the configuration of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. When El Niño conditions are present and ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are warm, the Atlantic hurricane season tends to be less active.

Increased sea levels could also be indicative of more severe storm damage. “Higher sea levels mean that deadly and destructive storm surges push farther inland than they once did, which also means more frequent nuisance flooding. Disruptive and expensive, nuisance flooding is estimated to be from 300 percent to 900 percent more frequent within U.S. coastal communities than it was just 50 years ago.”

The U.S. Could See as Many as 5 Major Hurricanes in 2018

When combined together, these indications could create a conditions perfect for hurricane formations. AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski is predicting the United States will see 12-15 tropical storms, 6 to 8 are forecasted to become hurricanes and 3 to 5 are forecast to become major hurricanes.

2018 atlantic hurricane season forecast

“According to Kottlowski, conditions are ripe for early season development in the Gulf of Mexico due the warm water already in place in that part of the Atlantic basin.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Asteroids, WWIII, Or North Korea” – South Dakotans Transform Military Bunkers Into Survivalist Homes

The motto “always be prepared” is wise advice, but, as RT reports, one man is taking the mantra to the max. He’s got former military bunkers spanning a space that is three-quarters the size of Manhattan, and is selling them to survivalists.

Survivalists and so-called “preppers” are often the brunt of jokes, with insults ranging from “paranoid” to “weird” and everything in between. But Robert Vicino couldn’t disagree more. He runs a company which is currently focused on transforming military bunkers into doomsday shelters.

The shelters are in Middle of Nowhere, USA, otherwise known as Edgemont, South Dakota. It’s barely on the map, but it’s about to host the “largest survival community on the planet.” That’s big news for a town with a population of just 774 people.

Describing the bunker community as “large” is perhaps an understatement. “…This base is 18 square miles (47 square kilometers), about three quarters the size of Manhattan,” Vicino told RT’s Ruptly agency. He says the community has 575 bunkers and will be able to hold between 6,000 and 10,000 residents.

If the idea has you imagining some kind of “tiny home” situation, think again. “This place is huge,” Vicino said while giving Ruptly a tour of a 2,200 square foot bunker. It’s “bigger than most houses in the world.” That’s likely a good thing, if you’re planning on having to spend the rest of your days inside an underground bunker with your crazy Aunt Martha.

Vicino says it would be nuts not to prepare for the worst, as each bunker will cost buyers just $25,000.

“To not have this and to have a back-up plan for mankind, to have an insurance policy, is crazy. The cost we are able to do this… it’s nothing. It’s crazy not to, it’s nothing more than life assurance.”

He also had a rebuttal for anyone who thinks those backing the project are crazy. He said those buying such structures “are people that are aware. They are not paranoid, they are highly intelligent, they read a lot.”

When it comes to possible reasons someone might need to flee to their underground bunker, Vicino’s answers ranged from natural disaster to a nuclear attack by Kim Jong-un. Basically, just about anything that could be scary for Earthlings.

“The whole world is concerned… some are concerned about North Korea, others are concerned about an economic collapse, others are concerned about World War III… there’s threats from the sun, a coronal mass ejection, there’s threats of asteroids hitting the earth and there`s near misses every week now…”

But there’s a catch if you decide you want to spend the rest of your days in one of Vicino’s bunkers. The nearest town is 30 minutes away and there’s no mobile connectivity. Of course, if the world is coming to an end, that’s probably the least of anyone’s concerns.

Vicino’s company also offers luxury survivalist dwellings in the German town of Rothenstein. Those bunkers cost more than $25,000, however, as the complex boasts swimming pools, theaters, gyms, restaurants, and a helicopter service.

7 Questions to Help You Figure Out Where to Store All That Food

7 Questions to Help You Figure Out Where to Store All That Food

About twelve years ago, my family decided to start storing food in case one of those dreaded “what ifs” happened in our lives.

You know those “what ifs.”

“What if we lose a source of income?” “What if someone is injured and can no longer work?” “What if we are sued and don’t have enough money to cover the lawsuit?” “What if prices go up so much that we can’t afford to feed our family as well as we do now?”

Yeah. Even if your “what ifs” aren’t the same as mine, I’d be willing to bet you have your own.

So those “what ifs” drove us to start amassing food. But one of the first things that went through my mind was, “We don’t have a basement! Where are we going to store food?”

Has that thought ever crossed your mind? If you’re in a bit of a panic because you don’t know where you’re going to store your stash, I’m going to provide you with seven questions that will help you uncover not-before-thought-of-spots.

I want you to take a walk through your house one room at a time. Looking at each room with new eyes, ask yourself these seven questions.

#1) Do I have anything that I can get rid of to create more room for food storage?

Well, the first and most obvious place to store food is in your kitchen. Go through your cabinets. Do you have approximately a gazillion plastic lids, but they don’t match any of your containers? Get rid of the lids and reclaim that area for food storage. Has your one gadget drawer procreated so now you have three billowing gadget drawers? Purge the items you’ve never used and are never likely to use in an emergency. Then use that space for food storage.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How the SHTF in Bosnia: Selco Asks Americans, “Does this sound familiar?”

How the SHTF in Bosnia: Selco Asks Americans, “Does this sound familiar?”

Selco interviewed by Daisy Luther

I was recently emailing back and forth with Selco and we were discussing the situation in the US right now, with the political polarization, the rage, and the general cognitive dissonance. I asked him if he saw any similarities between our situation and the one in Bosnia when the SHTF there during the war. When he replied I knew I had to share this information with you.

While we might like to think it could never happen here, the current events here are eerily similar to what happened there in the 1990s.

When you read this. think about recent events. The anger about immigration. The destruction of Civil War monuments. The unease between the races. The deep rage about the recent presidential election. The scorn and derision for neighbors who think differently. The way the media fans the flames of dissent between our fellow Americans.

You’ll realize that it definitely CAN happen to us…and there’s not one darn thing we can do except to be prepared.

What parallels do you see with events in the US and Bosnia before the SHTF?

US and Yugoslavia (in 1990) on first look do not have anything in common because people are going to say, “The USA cannot have anything similar to any socialistic system.”

This is true but only on first look.

Yugoslavia had somewhere around 20-22 million citizens, six republics (similar to states in the US), 3-4 main religions, and many national groups (ethnicity).

The official state policy was to build Yugoslavian “nationality” (from the end of WW1) and through different ways that effort was successful until the 90s.

We were “something big, united through differences with a strong connection to make something big.”

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is This What You Call Being Prepared?

Is This What You Call Being Prepared?

Is This What You Call Being Prepared?

In talking with American clients about their need to prepare themselves for the upcoming socio-economic/political upheaval in their country, my advice to them primarily revolves around the concept that, if you’re living in a bad neighbourhood, the obvious solution is to leave.

Many choose to do just that. Those who have limited funds seek out employment in a country that’s less likely to be dramatically impacted than their home country. Those who are a bit more well-heeled generally liquidate what they can in their home country and forward the proceeds to one where the economy and socio-political situation are more stable—and one where the rights of the individual are more greatly respected.

They then convert their wealth into a more protectable form, by buying real estate in such countries and, particularly, by converting wealth into precious metals and storing it in a top-rate facility in the chosen country.

If they can afford it, they additionally rent or purchase a home and acquire the right to residency in such a country so that, if their home country suddenly becomes less liveable, they can simply pack a carry-on and be on a plane that day.

However, far more individuals say something to the effect that “I’m too invested in where I am. I’ll make a stand right here. Let the bastards come and get me if they want to. I’ve got plenty of guns and ammunition.”

This position is, of course, very manly. It smacks of the protection of home and family. And, like John Wayne in his role as Davy Crockett at the Alamo, it has a truly patriotic ring to it.

Of course, it’s also true that Davy Crockett died at the Alamo, along with all those who fought alongside him. (Not at all a positive outcome.)

So, let’s have a realistic overview of this commonly stated “plan” to “make a stand.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Automatic Earth Primer Guide 2017

 


Pablo Picasso Bull plates I-XI 1945
Nicole Foss has completed a huge tour de force with her update of the Automatic Earth Primer Guide. The first update since 2013 is now more like a Primer Library, with close to 160 articles and videos published over the past -almost- 10 years, and Nicole’s words to guide you through it. Here’s Nicole:

The Automatic Earth (TAE) has existed for almost ten years now. That is nearly ten years of exploring and describing the biggest possible big picture of our present predicament. The intention of this post is to gather all of our most fundamental articles in one place, so that readers can access our worldview in its most comprehensive form. For new readers, this is the place to start. The articles are roughly organised into topics, although there is often considerable overlap.

We are reaching limits to growth in so many ways at the same time, but it is not enough to understand which are the limiting factors, but also what time frame each particular subset of reality operates over, and therefore which is the key driver at what time. We can think of the next century as a race of hurdles we need to clear. We need to know how to prepare for each as it approaches, as we need to clear each one in order to be able to stay in the race.

TAE is known primarily as a finance site because finance has the shortest time frame of all. So much of finance exists in a virtual world in which changes can unfold very quickly. There are those who assume that changes in a virtual system can happen without major impact, but this assumption is dangerously misguided.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Self-Reliance Manifesto: More Than 300 Resources to Guide You on the Path to Radical Freedom

The Self-Reliance Manifesto: More Than 300 Resources to Guide You on the Path to Radical Freedom

Self-Reliance. It’s a revolutionary word these days and I thought it deserved a manifesto.

Manifestonoun man·i·fes·to \ˌma-nə-ˈfes-(ˌ)tō\

A declaration of the intentions, motives, or views of the issuer.

~~~~~

Have you happened to notice that our society is out of balance?

The consumers outnumber the producers at such a rapid clip that we can’t possibly continue like this. But who has time to produce when they are indebted and working overtime to finance their current lifestyles in the hopes that they will finally be able to buy “enough” to be happy, fulfilled, and loved?

We live in a society made up mostly of rabid consumers.  As soon as the advertising pros on Madison Avenue point them in a given direction, people flock to it like the zombies on The Walking Dead lurch toward a fresh human, completely oblivious to everything else.  They yearn for these things that are produced across the world and then delivered at a cheap price.  They fill up on cheap food that has been government subsidized, making it unrealistically inexpensive.  They are enslaved as they work to pay for it, or in some cases, accept a handout to pay for it. More people are deeply in debt than ever, living a fancy First World Lifestyle that would crumble with one missed paycheck. They are slaves and they don’t even know it.

They don’t care that the newest clothing and gadgets were produced in sweatshops across the world. They don’t care that some items are produced by slave labor. They don’t care about the processed offerings at the grocery store, the pesticide-laden produce raised by corporations instead of farmers, or even the feedlots that are the scenes of the worst animal abuse in the country, completely free from prosecution.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Vehicular Survival Basics And Tools That Will Keep You Alive When Disaster Strikes And You’re On The Road And Away From Home

Vehicular Survival Basics And Tools That Will Keep You Alive When Disaster Strikes And You’re On The Road And Away From Home

The world we live in today is unstable.  We face the possibility of terrorist attacks, natural disasters, viral outbreaks, power outages, water shortages, the list goes on and on.  Hurricane Katrina showed proved that the government cannot protect everyone in the aftermath of a large-scale disaster.  This was a wake-up call for many that in order to survive you must take your fate into your own hands.  Regardless of personal feelings about what may be coming or ending, it is growing more and more important to maintain a basic level of readiness for whatever may disrupt life and interrupt the ability to acquire a supply of water, food, and shelter.

Whether you are a hard-core, end of the world “prepper” or just take the Boy Scout motto seriously, there is no shortage of good information on prepping for disaster.  If you plan to “bug out” or “bug in” or just learn what items are best to carry every day, you can find numerous resources and opinions on what gear to buy and what skills are necessary, but one area that often fails to get enough attention in preparedness discussions is preparing and maintaining your vehicle for emergencies.

When disaster strikes, whatever the disaster may be, you might be lucky enough to already be in your safe zone, your “bug-in” site.  But what if you’re not?  What if you’re caught out and need to get home?  Many people focus on what makes up a good EDC or a bug out bag, but your vehicle is capable of handling so much more!

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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