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World’s Largest Fertilizer Company Warns Crop Nutrient Disruptions Through 2023

World’s Largest Fertilizer Company Warns Crop Nutrient Disruptions Through 2023

The world’s largest fertilizer company warned supply disruptions could extend into 2023. A bulk of the world’s supply has been taken offline due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. This has sparked soaring prices and shortages of crop nutrients in top growing areas worldwide; an early indication of a global food crisis could be in the beginning innings.

Bloomberg reports Canada-based Nutrien Ltd.’s CEO Ken Seitz told investors on Tuesday during a conference call that he expects to increase potash production following supply disruptions in Russia and Ukraine (both major fertilizer suppliers). Seitz expects disruptions “could last well beyond 2022.”

Seitz said the conflict plus Western sanctions on Russia and Belarus has reduced fertilizer supply on global markets and could reshape crop nutrient trade, thus creating even more supply uncertainty.

“Could there be a change in global trade patterns as a result? We think that’s a possibility,” he said. 

Fertilizer disruptions could be a multi-year event. Already, farmers worldwide are reducing fertilizers, which may threaten yields come harvest time. The repercussions could be huge: Lower yields may exacerbate the food crisis. 

Here are the latest signs commercial farmers worldwide are reducing fertilizer usage because of higher prices or shortages.

Revealed last week, SLC Agricola SA, one of Brazil’s largest farming operations, managing fields of soybeans, corn, and cotton fields in an area larger than the state of Delaware, will reduce the use of fertilizer by 20% and 25%

Coffee farmers in Brazil, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Costa Rica, some of the largest coffee-producing countries, are expected to spread less fertilizer because of high costs and shortages. A coffee cooperative representing 1,200 farmers in Costa Rica predicts coffee output could slip 15% next year because of soaring fertilizer costs. 

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Europe To Cap Potash Imports As Planting Season Begins

Europe To Cap Potash Imports As Planting Season Begins

The EU is expected to deliver another shock to its agricultural sector by capping Russian imports of potash, a crucial ingredient for growing food, according to Bloomberg, citing a Dow Jones report.

The European Commission is expected to imminently unveil broad new sanctions on Russia. Much of the fertilizer is purchased from Belarus; the landlocked country in Eastern Europe could also be slapped with new sanctions for its involvement in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Potash is a key ingredient for agricultural fertilizers. Europe produces only a negligible amount of the fertilizer, and to potentially cap imports from Russia and or Belarus (top producers) seems idiotic for Europe as the spring planting season is only beginning.

Even if Europe were to rework its supply chains to import potash elsewhere, only a few other countries would export it. The impact of capping imports will send prices even higher and create fertilizer shortages for crops. This can dramatically affect crop harvests at the end of the growing season.

A handful of North American fertilizer stocks jumped on the report, including CF Industries +3% and Intrepid Potash 2%.

About 90% of potash is used as fertilizer in Europe; the rest is used to produce table salt, help slow the aging of wine, preserve canned food, and give chocolate its aroma.

Global spot prices for potash show prices continue to accelerate to the upside. This may discourage farmers from purchasing or even spread less of it during the planting season.

Even before the invasion of Ukraine, all fertilizer production in the West was declining (read: here) due to high natural gas prices. The shortage of fertilizers, not just potash, but also nitrogen and phosphates, on global markets, is inevitable. What Europe is doing to potentially cap potash imports from Russia and Belarus is idiotic and can spark a food crisis.

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Potash Price Surge Could Lead To Higher Food Costs For Billions

Potash Price Surge Could Lead To Higher Food Costs For Billions

 

Crops

We are on the precipice of a food fight among 7 billion people, and potash will be right at the center of it.

If you can add 200,000 people every day to the global population and account for a significant loss of farmland at the same time, you can begin to understand the dire food situation facing the planet. This is why potash is so important: It’s the fundamental element that everyone takes for granted, despite the fact that a projected 7.7 billion lives will depend upon it by 2020.

No commodity is more fundamental than potash—and there is a lot of pressure riding on an element that many people aren’t even familiar with. Of the key commodities taken for granted, potash is on the top of the list.

The challenge for farmers—and for the world—is to increase crop yields on less land, which is being lost to climate change and increasing urbanization. This means not only steady demand for the three main elements of fertilizer—potash, phosphate and nitrogen—but significantly higher demand.

“A growing population needing to be fed from a limited amount of arable land makes fertilizer and particularly potash a robust commodity,” Potash RidgePresident and CEO Guy Bentinck told Oilprice.com. “Additionally, as the middle class grows, the demand for higher-end food increases, and with that the demand for potash and related fertilizers increases.”

For such a critical element, it’s hard to believe that potash remains so elusive. It took a high-profile US$40-billion hostile takeover attempt of Saskatchewan’s Potash Corp., which failed, by major miner BHP Billiton in 2010 for even the Wall Street Journal to decide to figure out what all the fuss was about.

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