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David Collum: Everything That Mattered In 2018

David Collum: Everything That Mattered In 2018

And what lies ahead for 2019
The only thing nearly as enlightening as reading David Collum’s epic Year In Review is listening to him and Chris Martenson riff about its highlights.

Strap in, grab some eggnog, and listen to this year’s recap:

Everyone thinks the markets are now correcting. But compared to the size of the correction I think both you and I expect, this is just a drop in the bucket. This is merely the vibrating puddle in Jurassic Park. This is not the big one.

What’s amazing is this recent romp, which has lasted now almost 10 years, is the only gigantic bubble that I’m aware of in which the storyline behind it is just complete garbage.

Every other bubble, like the Tech bubble — well, tech is amazing. The 1920’s bubble — wow, we just invented electric power and cars and planes. There’s always a great, great story.

This particular bubble in which we have had for 10 years is central banks are going to print money to cover our backs.

That’s the stupidest Goddam plotline I can ever imagine.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris’ interview with David Collum (87m:25s).

TRANSCRIPT

Chris Martenson: Welcome, ,everyone to this Peak Prosperity podcast. I am your host, Chris Martenson. It is December 19th, 2018. Hey, listen, we are here today talking with Dave Collum about his year in review and is continuing our annual tradition. Listen, it’s the best year in review in the business. And it’s, listen, in order to know where we’re going, we’ve got to figure out what just happened. What better than a gigantic romp through where we have just been?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Climate Science Part 9 – Jet Stream

Climate Science Part 9 – Jet Stream

In this ninth part of our mini-series on climate science, we turn to one of the key suspects in extreme weather events we have experienced in recent years—the shifting shape of the North Atlantic jet stream. And the fingerprints of the changing jet stream can be found in tree ring data. The guest in this episode has studied three centuries of European tree rings and found that the shape of the jet stream, along with clear deviations from historical weather, began in the 1960s, pointing to a connection to the changing climate. Other researchers have come to similar conclusions by studying things like the difference between Arctic and mid-latitude temperatures over time. And they conclude that increases in greenhouse gas emissions will make the jet stream increasingly wavy in the future, exacerbating such extreme weather events.

Geek rating: 3

Guest: Valerie Trouet received her PhD in Bioscience Engineering at the KULeuven (Belgium) in 2004. After a post-doctoral research position in the Geography Department at the Pennsylvania State University (2005-2006), she worked as a research scientist at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL (2007-2010).  She now is an Associate Professor at the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research at the University of Arizona and leads the Spatiotemporal Interactions between Climate and Ecosystems research group.  She is currently writing a broad audience book about tree rings, climate history, and human history under the working title “Treestory.”

 

There’s No APP for That: Technology and Morality in the Age of Climate Change, Overpopulation, and Biodiversity Loss

THERE’S NO APP FOR THAT: TECHNOLOGY AND MORALITY IN THE AGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, OVERPOPULATION, AND BIODIVERSITY LOSS


It has become something of a mantra within the sustainability movement that innovations in technology will save the world and all of us in it, but we tend to forget that technology played a big part in getting ourselves into this mess in the first place. In a manifesto released back in August, author Richard Heinberg, who is also the Senior Fellow-in-Residence of the US-Based Post Carbon Institute, explains why technology, which is widely heralded as our saviour, is not the secret sauce to solve all our environmental troubles. He joins us to discuss his arguments in the manifesto which is titled, “There’s No App for That: Technology and Morality in the Age of Climate Change, Overpopulation, and Biodiversity Loss.”

This is how World War III starts—it will be financial

This is how World War III starts—it will be financial

In his History of the Peloponnesian War, ancient Greek historian Thucydides told us the tale of a dominant regional power (Sparta) that felt threatened by the rise of a competing power (Athens).

Sparta felt so threatened, in fact, that all the moves they made to keep the Athenian rise in check eventually escalated the power struggle into an all out war.

Modern political scientists call this the Thucydides Trap.

The idea is that when, out of fear, a dominant power takes certain steps to keep its competitor at bay, these actions ultimately lead to war between the two.

There’s a lot of concern that the US and China will fall into the Thucydides Trap.

This is certainly a valid concern. Both are nuclear superpowers with some of the largest militaries in the world.

But in 2016, modern warfare is not about tanks and aircraft carriers anymore. Modern warfare is insurgent, cyber, and financial.

In fact, if you look at the state of the financial system and the tactical brinksmanship between the US and China, it’s clear that the two are already in a Thucydides Trap.

This power struggle is leading to financial warfare of nuclear proportions; and as with any war, there will be a lot of casualties.

Just over the last several months we’ve seen many exchanges of fire between the two nations.

  • The US government claimed legal jurisdiction over the Bank of China, one of the largest banks on the mainland.
  • The Chinese launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a supernational bank designed to compete with the Western-dominated IMF.
  • The US blacklisted one of China’s largest telecom companies, forbidding any US company from doing business with China’s ZTE.
  • China has been rapidly expanding its global payment network, UnionPay to become a direct competitor with Western systems like Maestro, Visa, and Mastercard.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The history, meaning, and probable end of “dollar hegemony”

The history, meaning, and probable end of “dollar hegemony”

This thirty minute interview is part one of a two part series. Part two will be released next week.

In this interview I explain how the dollar became the world’s leading reserve currency, what it means to be a reserve currency, how the US has benefited financially from this arrangement, and how delinking the dollar to gold has allowed our military empire to expand in an irresponsible manner.

Pat Barron
http://www.wakeupcallpodcast.com/dollar-hegemony/

John Perkins: The Shadow World Of The Economic Hitman

John Perkins: The Shadow World Of The Economic Hitman

An exposé of the ugly global battle for control of resources

If you’re hoping to have a ‘feel good’ day today, we’re about to owe you an apology.

John Perkins, author of The New Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, is someone we’ve been trying to get on the program for some time. He tells a dark story of an elite cabal working in the shadows to subjugate governments as it pursues ever-greater control of the planet’s resources.

What’s most frightening about this story is how credible it is. Anybody paying attention to world developments will have a hard time dismissing Perkins’ claims out-of-hand; and a harder time not being sickened at how on the mark his claims may likely prove to be:

Economic hitmen – I’m a former one, actually – created the world’s first truly global empire. It’s really a corporate empire, not an American empire although the U.S. government certainly supports it.

We work many different ways, but perhaps the most common is that we will identify a country that has resources that corporations want, like oil. We arrange huge loans of that country from the World Bank or one of its sisters. Yet, the money never actually goes to the country. It is primarily there to make the our companies — that build the infrastructure projects like the power plants, and the industrial parks, highways, and ports — very rich.

In addition, a few wealthy families make a lot of money off of these programs. They own the industries and commercial centers.

But the majority of the people do not benefit at all. They do not have enough money to buy much electricity. They cannot get jobs in industrial parks because the industrial parks do not hire many people.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Steen Jakobsen: The End Of The Debt Cycle

Steen Jakobsen: The End Of The Debt Cycle

As transformational as the fall of the Berlin Wall

As we’ve been watching closely, something is wrong with the big banks. Their shares have lost 25-33% of their market value since the beginning of the year. What’s going on?

The turmoil seems greatest in Europe, where bank shares have fallen the hardest, and negative interest rates have appeared with increasingly frequency across member countries.

To make sense of it all, we’ve invited Steen Jakobsen back on, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, who can provide an eyes-on-the-ground perspective on the European banking system from his location in Copenhagen:

Clearly what we’ve seen over the course of the first quarter this year is that the ability of central banks to do their magic in terms of talking to the market with the rhetoric of “low for longer” and the likes is running on empty now.

If we look back in chronological order of what happened this year, first we had, of course, the Fed with Yellen and Fischer backing down slightly from the three to four hikes they promised in December. That was followed very quickly by, of course, Draghi promising to do ‘Whatever it takes!’ yet again in March this year. Then the BOJ went negative on interest rates and a number of European central banks followed suit. So much so that actually right now if you look at the G7 governments, about 50 percent of all G7 government is now trading at a negative yield, which seems to be the new solution from central banks.

I think the market is seeing right through that because, of course, at the center of all of this at all times will be the banking system, a banking system that is getting penalized for the negative interest rate.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

David Morgan: We Are On The Precipice

David Morgan: We Are On The Precipice

Derivatives threaten to topple the global financial system

Precious metals guru David Morgan returns to address the great threat to the global financial/monetary system from derivative risk. He sees the world at an unprecedented moment in history where the interconnected nature of the global economy makes all players vulnerable to the mind-boggling volume of outstanding derivatives, which makes the sum of all world equity + debt look tiny in comparison (if you haven’t seen it yet, look at this visual from The Money Project):

I want to give a very clear example that comes from gaming theory and I think this is a very concise and easy way for most people to understand our derivative risk exposure .

There are all kinds of gambling programs out there but one of the simplest ones before any computers was: you are at the roulette table (or you could be wherever, but roulette serves as the best analogy), and you bet a dollar on black and you lose. Then the next bet, you bet $2.00 and you lose. And then the next bet, you bet $4 and you lose. And the next bet, you bet $8 and you lose. The idea is that you keep betting on black, and eventually that’s going to come up and you’re going to win on the roulette table. The problem with that is this. You start to bet 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 and on and on, and what you are doing is you are betting $256. For what? To win a dollar. That is what you are doing. And that, Chris, I think is the best example I can give to the listeners about what we are doing in these derivatives.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner

David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner

With very few places for capital to hide

For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?

Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis:

In 2008/9, while the equity markets when down, the bond markets went up. And that buffered an awful lot of pensions and 401Ks and endowments and things like that. And so people felt pain, but they didn’t realize that there was an offsetting gain. They did not notice that part as much, but I think the next downturn is going to be concurrent bond market collapse and equity collapse and there will be no slack in that downturn.

I think stocks and bonds are both at ridiculously high levels now. The bond market can only go down from here, right? I mean, it can keep going up for a while, but there is just nothing left to be squeezed out of it. Interest rates are at seven hundred-year lows, supposedly – they’re certainly at stupid lows, right. You have a third of Europe at negative rates… And so I think at some point the bond market’s got to collapse. It will start in the high yield market, and that is happening right now. Then it’ll spread, maybe treasuries will get bid to the stratosphere, but at some point you’ve got to get a real return. And so bonds have to sell off to get back to that real return — after all, all crises are credit crises, right,? And then equities are going to go once there’s not leverage out there for share buy backs and stuff like that.
That’s why I think the next recession is going to be a barn-burner.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris’ interview with David Collum (74m:53s)

Nicole Foss Podcast: The Age of Limits

Nicole Foss Podcast: The Age of Limits

The Automatic Earth’s Nicole Foss recorded a podcast yesterday with Jack Spirko at the Survival Podcast. I haven’t even had time to listen to it yet, but I’m sure it’ll be as lightheartedly entertaining as her appearances always tend to be ;-). One thing I did notice is that for the first 13 minutes or so, there is no Nicole, just talk about sponsors of the Survival podcast. So you might want to skip that. Enjoy!

 Episode-1660- Nicole Foss on Liquidity Crunch and Economic Depression [1:37:01]

Remarks by Jack at the Survival Podcast site:

Special Notice – In the interest of journalistic integrity I feel obligated to reveal something that occurred today. Skype screwed up and only Nicole’s side of the interview came out in the end. Luckily she is a talker and I didn’t say much in this interview. To make it functional for the audience I went though a re recorded my side and pieced the entire thing together. It came out really well but if anything seems missing this is why. Likely if I didn’t tell you you would never even know that my side wasn’t live…

Join Me Today to Hear Nicole Discuss…
• What is the Age of Limits
• The coming liquidity crunch and economic depression
• Some reasons taking out a mortgage may not be a good idea
• What this means for small farms in regard to debt
• How and why population will most likely be reduced
• Why we should not even focus on climate change as a problem
• What do you recommend for the average 9-5er should do
• How much longer can we kick the can down the road
• Nicole’s predictions for how the world wide economic crisis will play out
• Thought on a possible mass migration in the US

Limits on the Grid, Part 1

[Episode #2] – Limits on the Grid – Part 1

Guest

Mackay Miller, Senior Research Analyst at NREL. @mackaymiller

Links

NREL: Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) (2012)
NREL: Power Systems of the Future (May 2015)
Nelder: Designing the grid for renewables (2012) 
Nelder: Wind to Double and Solar to Triple in 6 Years, Says IEA (2013)

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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