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Ukraine Stages New Provocation in Kerch Strait: Pursuing Hidden Agenda

Ukraine Stages New Provocation in Kerch Strait: Pursuing Hidden Agenda

Ukraine Stages New Provocation in Kerch Strait: Pursuing Hidden Agenda

On Nov. 25, three Ukrainian naval ships made an unauthorized crossing through Russian territorial waters. The Russian Coast Guard took measures to force them to comply with the rules. They did not. There can be little doubt that Kiev sent those ships to deliberately provoke Russia. Every ship that passes through that waterway must contact the Kerch Sea Port authorities, report her route and destination, and be given permission to sail through. It’s really that simple, but Ukraine’s group of ships had not notified Russia in advance of their plans. Warnings to stop their dangerous maneuvering were met with a deaf ear. The Ukrainian vessels defiantly ignored the requests to leave Russia’s territorial waters.

Kiev has rushed to accuse Moscow of “military aggression.” The incident immediately captured the headlines, with Western leaders raising their voices to back Ukraine without even offering any details about exactly what had happened or what had sparked this dangerous turn of events. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg wasted no time to express the bloc’s “full support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, including its full navigational rights in its territorial waters under international law.” Canada, Poland, and Denmark, in addition to some other countries, were quick to join their voices to the anti-Russian choir. It serves their purpose to brush aside both the details as well as any attempts to try to gain insight into the real causes of this incident in particular or the deterioration of the situation in the Azov Sea in general.

On Nov. 26, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed a bill imposing martial law. Once approved by parliament, it will remain in effect for at least one month. Afterward it can be extended.

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UK Blatantly Violates Norms of Decent Behavior

UK Blatantly Violates Norms of Decent Behavior

UK Blatantly Violates Norms of Decent Behavior

Russia and Venezuela are among the countries the EU, including Great Britain, has imposed sanctions on. Both nations have been targets of London’s vigorous attacks, being blamed for numerous nefarious things they have allegedly done. The UK insists that everyone play by the rules. Meanwhile, London is making mockery of commonly accepted norms in the international relations.

The government of Venezuela is seeking to eventually repatriate at least 14 tons of gold held at the Bank of England (BOE). It has recently asked to release the gold bars worth about £420 million or $550 million. This is the right and timely move as the new round of punitive measures recently imposed on Caracas by Washington showed. The Bank has refused to do so!

UK officials have reportedly insisted that Venezuela clarify its intentions for the gold. Venezuelan President Maduro is suspected by London of harboring plans to sell the national treasure for personal gains. There is also a subterfuge used to explain why the Venezuelan property has not been returned to the owner. The UK says it’s very hard to obtain insurance for the shipment to move the large cargo. Even if Venezuela gets the gold back, it’ll be a large order to use it for raising hard currency because of the new round of US sanctions announced on Nov.1. With the penalties in place, it’s impossible to sell the gold straight from the Bank of England.

The UK knows better who should be suspected of what and who can be trusted to have one’s own property returned. If it’s not theft, then what is? The rules of civilized behavior, you say? Forget about it, it’s up to London, faithfully complying with the instructions coming from Washington, to decide what’s civilized and what’s not.

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International Team of Researchers Concerned Over US Efforts to Create Bio-Weapons

International Team of Researchers Concerned Over US Efforts to Create Bio-Weapons

International Team of Researchers Concerned Over US Efforts to Create Bio-Weapons

In 1969, US President Richard Nixon ended all offensive aspects of the US bio-weapons program — the first category of weapons prohibited by an international treaty. In 1975, the US ratified both the 1925 Geneva Protocol and the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) — the international treaties outlawing biological warfare. But many reports from different sources offer reason to believe that the US military is developing a new generation of weapons in violation of the international treaties Washington is a party to.

An opinion paper published on Oct. 4 in the journal Science, written by an international group of researchers led by Richard Guy Reeves from the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology in Germany, claims the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is potentially developing insects as a means of delivering a “new class of biological weapon.”

The official goal of Insect Allies, an ongoing research program, is to disperse infectious, genetically modified viruses that have been engineered to edit crop chromosomes directly in the field. But there is a reason to believe that the program is actually an effort to develop biological agents and a means of delivery intended for hostile purposes. If true, this would constitute a breach of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).

The researchers warn the project could be used to create drought-resistant crops as an “agricultural bio-weapon.” The Washington Post cited Silja Voeneky, the co-author of the Science article and a professor of international law at the University of Freiburg, who stated, “We argue that there is the risk that the program is seen as not justified by peaceful purposes.” According to her, “To use insects as a vector to spread diseases is a classical bio-weapon.”

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US Openly Threatens Russia with War: Goodbye Diplomacy, Hello Stone Age

US Openly Threatens Russia with War: Goodbye Diplomacy, Hello Stone Age

US Openly Threatens Russia with War: Goodbye Diplomacy, Hello Stone Age

US Ambassador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison is a highly placed diplomat. Her words, whatever they may be, are official, which includes the ultimatums and threats that have become the language increasingly used by US diplomats to implement the policy of forceful persuasion or coercive diplomacy. Bellicose declarations are being used this way as a tool.

On Oct. 2, the ambassador proved it again. According to her statement, Washington is ready to use force against Russia. Actually, she presented an ultimatum — Moscow must stop the development of a missile that the US believes to be in violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty). If not, the American military will destroy it before the weapon becomes operational. “At that point, we would be looking at the capability to take out a (Russian) missile that could hit any of our countries,” Hutchison stated at a news conference. “Counter measures (by the United States) would be to take out the missiles that are in development by Russia in violation of the treaty,” she added. “They are on notice.” This is nothing other than a direct warning of a preemptive strike.

It is true that compliance with the INF Treaty is a controversial issue. Moscow has many times claimed that Washington was in violation, and that position has been substantiated. For instance, the Aegis Ashore system, which has been installed in Romania and is to be deployed in Poland, uses the Mk-41 launcher that is capable of firing intermediate-range Tomahawk missiles. This is a flagrant breach of the INF Treaty. The fact is undeniable. The US accuses Moscow of possessing and testing a ground-launched cruise missile with a range capability of 500 km to 5,500 km (310-3,417 miles), but there has never been any proof to support this claim. Russia has consistently denied the charges.

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EU, UK, Russia and China Join Together to Dodge US Sanctions on Iran

EU, UK, Russia and China Join Together to Dodge US Sanctions on Iran

EU, UK, Russia and China Join Together to Dodge US Sanctions on Iran

The UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York is a place where world leaders are able to hold important meetings behind closed doors. Russia, China, the UK, Germany, France, and the EU seized that opportunity on Sept. 24 to achieve a real milestone.

The EU, Russia, China, and Iran will create a special purpose vehicle (SPV), a “financially independent sovereign channel,” to bypass US sanctions against Tehran and breathe life into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which is in jeopardy. “Mindful of the urgency and the need for tangible results, the participants welcomed practical proposals to maintain and develop payment channels, notably the initiative to establish a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to facilitate payments related to Iran’s exports, including oil,” they announced in a joint statement. The countries are still working out the technical details. If their plan succeeds, this will deliver a blow to the dollar and a boost to the euro.

The move is being made in order to save the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. According to Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, the SPV will facilitate payments for Iran’s exports, such as oil, and imports so that companies can do business with Tehran as usual. The vehicle will be available not just to EU firms but to others as well. A round of US sanctions aimed at ending Iranian oil exports is to take effect on November 5. Iran is the world’s seventh-largest oil producer. Its oil sector accounts for 70% of the country’s exports. Tehran has warned the EU that it should find new ways of trading with Iran prior to that date, in order to preserve the JCPOA.

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US Nuclear Safety: A Critical Problem That Has Largely Been Kept Out of the Public Eye

US Nuclear Safety: A Critical Problem That Has Largely Been Kept Out of the Public Eye

US Nuclear Safety: A Critical Problem That Has Largely Been Kept Out of the Public Eye

The issue of nuclear safety has been a hot topic in the second half of 2018. It has just been discussed in detail at the 62nd International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conference in Geneva, which was held Sept. 17-21. The international conference on “The Security of Radioactive Material: The Way Forward for Prevention and Detection,” which is scheduled for Vienna, Dec. 3-7, is going to be a landmark international event that will be a focus for the media spotlight.

It is true that poor storage conditions and low nuclear-safety standards threaten the environment and increase the possibility of nuclear materials getting into the wrong hands.

Russia can be proud of its achievements in this area. The days of the 1990s when it needed outside help to tackle this problem are long gone. In 2013, Moscow ended the joint Russian-US Cooperative Threat Reduction program (the Nunn-Lugar program) because it is now able to manage these issues on its own. The cooperation over the secure storage of weapons-grade materials was suspended in 2014. The IAEA reports that today Russia boasts high nuclear-safety standards. Sophisticated protection equipment has been installed and all nuclear sites are jointly safeguarded by the military, ROSATOM’s security agency, and on-site security teams. The materials are properly safeguarded during transportation. A special program to upgrade the transportation infrastructure has been in place since 2010.

The report “The Use of Highly Enriched Uranium as Fuel in Russia,” issued by the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), a group based at Princeton University, admits that the country has made great progress to ensure the safety of uranium stockpiles and transportation.

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Azov Sea Flashpoint: Russia, Ukraine Teetering on the Brink of War

Azov Sea Flashpoint: Russia, Ukraine Teetering on the Brink of War

Azov Sea Flashpoint: Russia, Ukraine Teetering on the Brink of War

Ukraine has increased its military presence in the Azov Sea region. Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council met on Sept. 7 and agreed to take a variety of steps to boost the country’s combat capabilities in the area, including the creation of a missile-equipped naval infantry group to counter potential amphibious attacks and naval shore bombardments. Ukraine’s Gurza-M-class armored artillery boats have been brought in to boost the naval component of the forces deployed in the region.

Russia and Ukraine enjoy free use of the Sea of Azov under the 2003 “Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Ukraine on cooperation in the use of the sea of Azov and the strait of Kerch.” The document is in place but it does not specify any precise border. The parties agree that the Sea of Azov and the Strait of Kerch are the internal waters of both Ukraine and Russia.

Talks have dragged on for a long time but have failed to produce a solution. Ukraine does not want to recognize Russia’s rights, which are based on the fact that Crimea has joined the Russian Federation. Moreover, Ukrainian authorities insist on their right to detain any ship traveling to or from Crimea without Kiev’s permission.

Ukraine is calling for the imposition of international sanctions against Russian Black Sea ports, due to what it calls the “blockade” of the Sea of Azov. It has already imposed punitive measures unilaterally. Tensions have heightened since March, when ships were detained and searched.  On March 24, Ukrainian border guards stopped the Russian-flagged, Crimean-registered Nord fishing vessel in the Sea of Azov. The ship was hijacked.

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Fighting Starts in Syria’s Idlib: US Military Considers Military Options

Fighting Starts in Syria’s Idlib: US Military Considers Military Options

Fighting Starts in Syria’s Idlib: US Military Considers Military Options

Syrian UN Ambassador Bashar Ja’afari declared on Sept. 7 that his government was determined to wipe out the rebels from the Idlib province. The next day, the Idlib Dawn Operation began, encircling a town 59 km. southwest of the Syrian city of Aleppo. As of Sept. 9, Russian aircraft have attacked the rebel positions in western Idlib, the mountains of the Latakia province, and the Sahl al-Ghab plain, with the goal of softening up peripheral targets and preventing a breakthrough or counterattack. Syria’s forces are ready to move.

The Russian military warned that a false-flag chemical attack staged by the rebels could occur at any time and be used as a pretext for Western missile strikes.  A massive Turkish military convoy, consisting of more than 300 vehicles, including tanks, armored vehicles, and MLRS launchers, has entered Idlib from the province of Hatay.

Syria needs Idlib — the last stronghold of the jihadists and the shortest route from Latakia to Aleppo. The M5 international highway crosses Idlib, linking Turkey and Jordan through Aleppo and Damascus. Control of the province would greatly facilitate the negotiations with the Kurds and strengthen Syria’s position at the UN-brokered Geneva talks. If the negotiation process succeeds, the only territories left to liberate would be the zone controlled by the US, such as the al-Tanf military base and the surrounding area, the northern parts of the country under Turkish control, and small chunks of land still held by ISIS.

Turkey opposes the idea of an Idlib offensive. It wants assurances for the groups in Idlib under its control and it doesn’t want an influx of refugees. These controversial issues can be tackled with Russia as a mediator. Turkey, Iran, and Russia did not agree on everything at the recent summit in Tehran, but the West’s hopes that they would go their separate ways, or even clash in Idlib, have been dashed.

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New Alliance Emerges in Eastern Mediterranean to Reshape Regional Security Landscape

New Alliance Emerges in Eastern Mediterranean to Reshape Regional Security Landscape

New Alliance Emerges in Eastern Mediterranean to Reshape Regional Security Landscape

The military-political landscape in Europe and the Mediterranean is changing. NATO is not as unified as it once was, and Turkey’s membership has become more of a formality than a real thing. A pro-US group consisting of Great Britain, Poland, and the Baltic States has emerged as part of a North Atlantic Alliance that is divided by differences and the open rift over the 2% financial contribution, a decree that is largely ignored, along with the other divisions that are weakening the bloc. Other groups are arising that also have common security interests. A new pact, an Arab NATO allied with the United States, will soon materialize in the Middle East.  Changes are coming, but they are hard to predict as everything is currently in a state of flux.

“The United States is interested in increasing its use of military bases and ports in Greece,” said General Joseph Dunford, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS), on Sept. 4 during his visit to Athens.  “If you look at geography, and you look at current operations in Libya, and you look at current operations in Syria, you look at potential other operations in the eastern Mediterranean, the geography of Greece and the opportunities here are pretty significant,” he added. According to the Military Times, “[N]o specific bases have been identified, but that Supreme Allied Commander Europe Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti is evaluating several options for increased US flight training, port calls to do forward-based ship repairs and additional multilateral exercises.” US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross came to Greece right after the CJCS’s visit to take part in the annual Thessaloniki International Trade Fair.

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The Baltic States Never Stop Their War Preparations Against Russia

The Baltic States Never Stop Their War Preparations Against Russia

The Baltic States Never Stop Their War Preparations Against Russia

The hue and cry over the possibility of a Russian attack on the Baltic states has grown all out of proportion. NATO is using its “Russian boogeyman” campaign to boost its military presence in the region. With Moscow accused of harboring evil plans, a robust military infrastructure is emerging in the immediate proximity of Russia’s borders. The US footprint is huge. Whatever Russia does (such as deploying its forces or conducting military exercises), it is presented by the Western media as a demonstration of hostile intent, while NATO’s highly provocative behavior is kept out of the spotlight. Any nation would be concerned over war preparations on its doorstep that are being conducted by an unfriendly alliance. Anyone who is impartial would confirm that Moscow’s concern is more than justified.

The US Defense Department’s 2019 fiscal budget became law on Aug. 13. It allocates $6.5 billion for the European Defense Initiative (EDI), $2 billion more than the previous fiscal budget, and nearly double the $3.4 billion the military received in fiscal 2017. The increase is evidence of the focus on building up a robust military force to threaten Russia. Infrastructure improvements in the Baltic states and Poland are a high priority.

According to the Lithuanian Defense Ministry, the updates to the Lithuanian armed forces’ Kazlų Rūda training ground, in the district of Marijampolė, to get it up to NATO standards, are almost complete. The facility will be used to train air crews and controllers. This is a joint project with the United States, funded through the European Reassurance Initiative. American B-52 strategic bombers have already dropped dummy munitions there. The firing range was part of the NATO Saber Strike exercise that was held in June. US National Guard soldiers are there to prepare Kazlų Rūda for another exercise.

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US, Iran Clash in Hormuz Strait: Not an Improbable Scenario

US, Iran Clash in Hormuz Strait: Not an Improbable Scenario

US, Iran Clash in Hormuz Strait: Not an Improbable Scenario

The US remains adamant in its desire to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero, even if it hurts importing countries. America’s secondary sanctions on firms dealing with Iran would “snap back” on August 6 for trade in cars and metals and on November 4 for oil and banking transactions. The “wind down” period varied between 90 and 180 days is intended to allow entities to end businesses in Iran. There will be no waivers. India, China and Turkey are the oil importers expected not to succumb to US pressure.

Brian Hook, the State Department’s director of policy and planning, said “Our goal is to increase pressure on the Iranian regime by reducing to zero its revenue from crude oil sales.” The US has already approached Saudi Arabia on the subject of increasing exports to compensate for the reduction of Iranian oil on the world market.

The goal is to hit Iran’s economy against the background of ongoing protests inside the country. Last July, John Bolton openly called for regime change in Tehran. He was not national security adviser at the time but nothing makes believe he has changed his views since then.

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani warned the United States about consequences. He said shipments from other countries would be disrupted if Iranian oil exports were suspended. Qassem Solaimani, the commander of the Al Quds Force in the Revolutionary Guards, joined him to confirm that his country will block oil shipments through the Hormuz Strait if the US administration stops Iranian oil exports. Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said that “either all can use the Strait of Hormuz or no one.”

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US Acts As World’s Cop Making Others Comply with Its National Laws

US Acts As World’s Cop Making Others Comply with Its National Laws

US Acts As World’s Cop Making Others Comply with Its National Laws

An anti-doping bill was introduced to Congress on June 12 to make the use or distributing drugs during international sports events a punishable crime. The act offers fines of up to $250,000 for individuals and prison sentences of up to 10 years for those who make, distribute or use banned substances at sports events including four or more US athletes and other athletes from three or more countries.

Whistleblowers that expose doping schemes will also be protected under the act. When the legislation goes into effect, any wrongdoer will be able to say he’s unfairly persecuted in his own country for exposing doping-related activities to get American protection from justice at home. And athletes from different countries will have to prove their innocence in US, not national or international, courts. Inevitably, there’ll be problems with proof making US prosecutors politicized and enjoy extended authority to get the evidence they could go upon.

So, foreign athletes will be subject to American law outside US borders. Other countries, such as Germany, France, Kenya, and Spain, have anti-doping laws but their jurisdiction is limited to national territories. “There should not be an opportunity for states to engage in misconduct,” said Representative Michael Burgess (R-TX) in his remarks during the bill’s introduction. The act actually says that US laws prevail everywhere in the world and everybody must comply. The cited justification is the unproportionally big American contribution ($2.3 million) to the World Anti-Doping Agency. Whoever pays the piper calls the tune.

As usual, Russia is the scapegoat. The bill is named after Grigory Rodchenkov, the Russian lab director known for spreading fake stories about alleged cheating at the 2014 Sochi Olympics.

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What May 2018 Has in Store: It’s Difficult to Understate the Looming Dangers

What May 2018 Has in Store: It’s Difficult to Understate the Looming Dangers

What May 2018 Has in Store: It’s Difficult to Understate the Looming Dangers

The month of May is always associated with V-E Day. The sentiments of “never again” were strong 73 years ago, in 1945 when the UN was founded. Since then Europe has put a huge amount of effort into creating a unique security system to prevent armed conflicts. It was never perfect, but by and large it worked. Other continents used to look on with envy and try to establish security regimes of their own.

Multiple agreements are still in force, working to prevent the worst scenarios, but today they appear to be somewhat forgotten and are failing to meet their objectives. Yet by no stretch of the imagination would anyone have imagined that May 2018 would be a month spent teetering on the brink of war, with the experts left trying to guess when it will ignite, how far it will spread, and how many actors are likely to be involved. It’s scary but that’s where we are. It’s never been this tense since the worst days of the Cold War.

On May 2, Siil (Hedgehog), the largest NATO exercise to be held in the Baltics since 1991, began in Estonia and Latvia, involving 3, 000 troops from 16 countries. It will last until May 14. Estonia and Latvia border the Russian Federation. Latvia will host five military exercises in May and June. All of this activity is intensive enough for Moscow to interpret it as preparation for war.

June will see large-scale BALTOPS and Sabre Strike 2018 exercises in the Baltics. Europe will host a US armored brigade – a force of at least 4,000 soldiers accompanied by about 90 Abrams tanks, Bradley combat vehicles, 18 self-propelled Paladin howitzers, and other vehicles.

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Gold Leaving US Vaults: Signs of Upcoming Currency War and Armed Conflict

Gold Leaving US Vaults: Signs of Upcoming Currency War and Armed Conflict

Gold Leaving US Vaults: Signs of Upcoming Currency War and Armed Conflict

The Turkish government has made the decision to repatriate all of its gold reserves that are currently housed in the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). Overall Turkey was storing 220 tonnes, valued at $25.3 billion, in the US, which it repossessed on April 19, 2018.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has toughened his stance against the US dollar (USD), declaring that international loans should be made in gold instead of the American currency. Ankara is seeking to reduce dependence on the US financial system. The gold’s homecoming was partly prompted by the US threats to impose sanctions if Turkey goes through with the signed deal to purchase Russian S-400 missile defense systems.

This is a dramatic move reflecting an international trend. Venezuela repatriated its gold from the US in 2012. In 2014, the Netherlands also retrieved its 122.5 tonnes of gold that were stored in US vaults. Germany brought home 300 metric tonnes of gold stashed in the United States in 2017. It took Berlin four years to complete the transfers. Austria and Belgium have reviewed the possibility of taking similar measures.

Few people believe the US Treasury’s assurances that the 261 million ounces (roughly 8,100 tonnes) in official gold reserves that are stored in Fort Knox and other places are fully audited and accounted for. The Federal Reserve has never been fully and independently audited. The pressure for a full, independent audit of all US gold reserves has always been resisted by the government and in Congress. Nobody knows if the gold is really there. What if the vaults turn out to be empty? It’s wiser to bring your gold home while you can, rather than to just keep on wondering.

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America and Its Arab Friends Set Up a New Anti-Iran Alliance

America and Its Arab Friends Set Up a New Anti-Iran Alliance

America and Its Arab Friends Set Up a New Anti-Iran Alliance

The Saudi king has just begun his two-week visit to the US but the first important achievement was seen even before the top-level talks kicked off on March 20. He and President Trump agreed to assemble a Supreme Committee to counter Iran. The UAE is the third member of this action team. Their activities will be coordinated by their national security advisers, with final decisions to be made by the heads of state. The forum will convene monthly to discuss issues of special importance.

This move is widely seen as a sign that President Trump is soon going to recertify the Iran nuclear deal, even if such a decision will mean defying some of his top military leaders. The deadline for recertification is mid-May but the president may make an announcement much earlier.

CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who has been nominated to replace Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, favors a tough approach to Iran. The nominee is the right man to improve cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE aimed at forcing a rollback of Iran. Once he takes over the US is expected to move further into Saudi Arabia’s corner.

Congress has approved $54 billion in arms sales to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) over the past nine months. Multibillion-dollar commercial deals are being discussed as part of Crown Prince Mohammed’s US visit. On March 20, the Senate supported President Trump and rejected a measure aimed at ending support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen.

The idea of an alliance of Muslim countries against Iran is not anything new, but until now nothing had ever come to fruition. Riyadh officially heads the alliance established in December 2015. But today that project seems to have been forgotten. A previous attempt to form an anti-Iran alliance on the basis of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was frustrated when Qatar and Oman refused to follow the policy dictated by Riyadh. The KSA-UAE alliance was set up last December. Now the US has joined to expand it.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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