Home » Posts tagged 'Pete Evans'

Tag Archives: Pete Evans

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

How bad will Canada’s COVID-19 recession be?

March 27, 2020

How bad will Canada’s COVID-19 recession be?

2 million jobs could be at stake, and the economy could shrink by more than it did in 2009

Stock markets have been waylaid by the virus as the global economy slows to a crawl. This NYSE trader has watched as the Dow Jones has lost more than a third of its value in the past month. (Richard Drew/The Associated Press)

The black swan has landed. 

The novel coronavirus pandemic is well underway worldwide, but it wasn’t until this month that Canadians started coming to grips with the economic pain it can bring, in addition to its heavy human toll.

Economists are struggling to come up with best guesses as to what might be coming. There’s still a lot that they — and we — don’t know. But the picture they’re painting for Canada’s financial future is already bleak.

GDP could significantly contract

At a minimum, the Conference Board of Canada is assuming that most industries across the country will be essentially shut down for at least six weeks.

If they take an optimistic view and assume that’s enough to contain the outbreak, even that short term pain will make a major dent in the country’s total output, a metric known as the Gross Domestic Product, or GDP.

Should this relatively mild scenario come to pass, Canada’s economy would eke out a tiny 0.3 per cent growth for 2020 as a whole as things ramp up in the latter half of the year. That’s far from booming — Canada’s economy grew by 1.6 per cent last year, for example — but it’s preferable to other alternatives.

Retail workers have been laid off in droves this month as lockdowns have caused a dramatic reduction in demand for the consumer goods they sell. (Matias Delacroix/The Associated Press)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

38% of Canadians dip into RRSPs early, BMO survey suggests

February 8, 2017

38% of Canadians dip into RRSPs early, BMO survey suggests

Percentage of respondents withdrawing savings rose from 34% last year, poll indicates

Almost four out of every 10 Canadians withdraw money from an RRSP before they hit 71, a new poll from BMO suggests.

Almost four out of every 10 Canadians withdraw money from an RRSP before they hit 71, a new poll from BMO suggests. (Shutterstock)

Almost four out of every 10 Canadians polled in a recent BMO survey admit they’ve withdrawn money from their RRSP early, and almost a fifth of them don’t ever expect to replenish what they’ve taken out.

According to the poll of 1,500 people, conducted by Pollara but commissioned by Bank of Montreal, more and more Canadians are dipping into their retirement savings to keep their heads above water financially.

In a similar poll last year, 34 per cent of respondents said they had tapped their registered retirement savings plans early. This year, it jumped to 38 per cent.

The survey was conducted online between Dec. 14 and 19. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, BMO said.

Of those polled who had dipped into the kitty early, almost a third, 30 per cent, said they had a good reason for doing so: buying a house. Under the Home Buyer’s Plan, Ottawa allows an RRSP-holder to withdraw up to $25,000 from their RRSP if they’re going to use the money for a down payment.

But more than a fifth of those who have withdrawn money early said they did so to pay living expenses, and 18 per cent reported they did it to pay down debt — two excuses the tax man will not accept as legitimate enough to waive the penalty for doing so.

“It’s concerning to see that so many Canadians are dipping into their RRSPs to meet short-term needs, which should only be considered as a last resort,” Chris Buttigieg with BMO Wealth Management said in a release announcing the results of the poll.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canadian housing market hits $508,097 average price in April as sales rise to record

May 16, 2016

Canadian housing market hits $508,097 average price in April as sales rise to record

Average Canadian house price up 13% in April, but wide regional variances remain

Canada's housing market hit new all-time records both for the average price and the number of homes sold in April.

Canada’s housing market hit new all-time records both for the average price and the number of homes sold in April. (Associated Press)

Canada’s housing market continues to set new records, with the average sale price up to $508,097 in April, the busiest month for home sales in Canadian history.

The Canadian Real Estate Association says the average house price increased by more than 13 per cent in the year ended in April.

CREA has said for several months in a row that the average price is skewed higher by the hot and large markets of Toronto and Vancouver. Stripping those two cities out, the national average drops to $369,222 and the year-over-year gain is reduced to 8.7 per cent, CREA said.

CREA says the average figure is misleading, so it calculates something it calls the Aggregate Composite MLS House Price Index, and contends it’s a fairer representation of the real market, by blending together all housing types.

Even on that more normalizing scale, the CREA index rose 10.3 per cent in April, its biggest gain in almost six years stretching back to May 2010.

Here are the eye-popping numbers for some areas in and around Toronto and Vancouver:

  • The Greater Vancouver Area’s index increased by 25.3 per cent
  • The nearby Fraser Valley increased by 25.6 per cent
  • Prices in the GTA were up by 12.6 per cent
  • Victoria was up 12 per cent
  • Vancouver Island prices were up by 8.2 per cent.

By way of contrast, prices declined by 3.5 per cent and 2.4 per cent in Calgary and Saskatoon, respectively, which are smaller declines than those posted by these markets in March.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

House flipping tax could curb speculative foreign money, CIBC says

May 14, 2016

House flipping tax could curb speculative foreign money, CIBC says

Tax on home flippers may be helpful, but most foreign investors are likely legitimate, Benjamin Tal says

Canada lacks concrete data on the level of foreign investment in the country's housing market, experts say.

Canada lacks concrete data on the level of foreign investment in the country’s housing market, experts say. (Daniel Acker/Bloomberg)

Canada may consider a tax on foreign investors flipping Canadian homes for a quick profit, Benjamin Tal says, but overall the economist at CIBC says there’s no evidence that type of activity is a big problem in Canadian real estate.

In a report Friday, Tal delved into a topic that is currently a major focus of policymakers: the impact of foreign investment on Canadian home prices.

There is a perception in some quarters that a major cause of high house prices in Canadian cities such as Toronto and Vancouver is foreign investors. Specifically, it has been alleged that foreign money is flooding into real estate in those two places, and pushing prices out of reach for those who actually live there.

Unfortunately, hard data on foreign money is hard to come by, as Canada does not yet reliably track such information — although recent steps from B.C. to track residency info of buyers is a step in that direction.

Canada’s national housing agency, the CMHC, says it is trying to collect more information on the topic, and Statistics Canada was earmarked half a million dollars in the recent federal budget to beef up its data collection on the housing market.

In the report, Tal draws a distinct line between foreign money where the buyer has an actual foothold in Canada, and speculative investments where the buyer has no incentive other than a financial interest.

The first is the more common type of foreign investment, Tal said after speaking with a group of real estate brokers who deal exclusively with foreign buyers. And moreover — it’s nothing to worry about.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank of Canada keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.5%

April 13, 2016

Bank of Canada keeps benchmark interest rate at 0.5%

Central bank’s rate has impact on rates offered by commercial banks for loans and savings accounts

The Bank of Canada, lead by governor Stephen Poloz, kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.5 per cent on Wednesday.

The Bank of Canada, lead by governor Stephen Poloz, kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.5 per cent on Wednesday. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

Canada’s central bank stood pat today, electing to keep its benchmark lending rate at 0.5 per cent.

The Bank of Canada’s rate, known as its target for the overnight rate, affects what Canadian borrowers and savers are offered from commercial banks on their loans and investments.

BANK OF CANADA KEY OVERNIGHT RATEBroadly speaking, the bank cuts rates when it wants to stimulate the economy, and hikes rates when it wants to pump the brakes on inflation.

After standing on the sidelines for years, the bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate twice last year in an attempt to stimulate a Canadian economy waylaid by low oil prices.

Since then, the economy has showed signed of improvement, however, as the cheap loonie has helped manufacturers and exporters, and oil prices have stabilized around the $40 level in recent months.

In January, Canada’s gross domestic product grew by its biggest amount in more than two years, official data showed last month. That helps explain the new cautiously optimistic outlook from the central bank’s decision-makers.

BANK OF CANADA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK“It does appear that the positive forces at work in the economy are starting to outweigh those that are negative,” the bank said in its statement Wednesday. “First-quarter GDP growth appears to have been unexpectedly strong.”

The Canadian dollar reacted positively to the news, erasing earlier losses of about a third of a cent to trade hands virtually unchanged on the day, at 78.35 cents US.

While keeping rates steady for now, the bank hiked its forecast of how it expects the economy to perform this year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold price over $1,200 has bullion buyers sure rally will continue

February 19, 2016

Gold price over $1,200 has bullion buyers sure rally will continue

Price of bullion is rising fast, especially when converted into Canadian currency

Gold has outperformed almost every single other asset class as an investment this year. Many backers of the precious metal say the rally is just getting started.

Gold has outperformed almost every single other asset class as an investment this year. Many backers of the precious metal say the rally is just getting started. (Frantzesco Kangaris/Bloomberg)

Bad news for stock markets is often a good time for one of the world’s oldest commodities, and this year is no exception as gold has rallied almost 20 per cent since the start of 2016.

The price of an ounce of gold bullion has risen from a little over $1,000 US an ounce in late December to above $1,200 US Thursday, through a period when every single major stock index has fallen.

That’s part of a widespread flight to safety that has seen investors dump anything perceived as risky — stocks, oil and currencies like the Canadian dollar — and put their money into investments that are perceived to be safer.

That’s leading them right to gold, which is gaining ground after a multi-year slide.

“Investors are suddenly waking up to the risks in the market, pretty much like what happened in 2008,” said Robert Cohen, a portfolio manager at Scotiabank’s Dynamic Funds.

Mini-rally underway

“This time it’s more of a slower motion train wreck out there, so people are slowly digesting that information and systematically moving to safe havens like gold.”

Part of gold`s rally is due to a relative dearth of better options. That’s because central banks have cut interest rates so low that non-risky assets now can`t outperform inflation.

Bloomberg recently reported that almost a third of all the sovereign debt held by developed economies is negative yielding. That`s more than $7 trillion worth of assets guaranteed to lose money if held to maturity. Against a backdrop like that, it’s not hard to see gold’s appeal.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Average house price in Canada up 17% in January to $470,297

February 16, 2016

Average house price in Canada up 17% in January to $470,297

House prices increased by an astounding 17 per cent in January, CREA said.

House prices increased by an astounding 17 per cent in January, CREA said. (Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg)

The average price of a Canadian home sold in January increased by 17 per cent to $470,297 compared to the same month a year ago.

Home sales were higher during the month, but prices truly soared, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported Tuesday.

As has been the case for several years, however, two large and hot markets, in Toronto and Vancouver, skewed the national average higher.

Strip the two cities out of the numbers and the average Canadian home was worth $338,392 last month while the year-over-year gain drops to eight per cent.

If B.C. and Ontario were stripped out, the picture would look even bleaker — the average price of a Canadian home would have dropped by 0.3 per cent in January to $286,911.

“While we continue to believe that things just can’t any hotter, markets in B.C. and Ontario continue to prove us wrong,” TD economist Diana Petramala said, adding that for Toronto and Vancouver, “every month of double-digit home price growth raises the risk of a deeper home price correction down the road.”

Despite the eye-popping price gains on a national level, there are signs of tightening in the market locally.

On an annualized basis, prices declined in January in four provinces, including Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.

The average price gain across Canada’s 26 largest cities was 4.7 per cent in January; the strongest was 31 per cent in Vancouver;  the weakest was –10 per cent, in Newfoundland and Labrador, which is considered one single market and thus compared to other cities.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Meridian credit union offers 1-year mortgage at 1.69%

February 2, 2016

Meridian credit union offers 1-year mortgage at 1.69%

Spring mortgage wars start early, as member-owned lender makes new low offer to homebuyers

Meridian credit union just offered a one-year mortgage at 1.69 per cent.

Meridian credit union just offered a one-year mortgage at 1.69 per cent. (Daniel Munoz/Reuters)

Alternative lender Meridian has launched the first shot in the spring mortgage wars with a one-year fixed mortgage rate of 1.69 per cent.

“As we are quickly approaching the busy spring home buying season, this is the perfect time for people to evaluate their home buying options by getting a pre-approval now,” the credit union said in a release Tuesday announcing the offer.

The deal is the lowest mortgage rate currently on offer from any lenders, for any term, listed on RateSupermarket.ca. It also comes with a so-called 20/20 prepayment ability, which means the borrower is able to pay off 20 per cent of the principal in any given year. The borrower can also increase the monthly payment up to 20 per cent of the original payment plan each year.

Competitive market

The move is a first strike in the battle for market share in the upcoming spring buying season. The big banks have raised their mortgage rates incrementally over the past 12 months in some cases, even as the Bank of Canada has twice slashed its benchmark rate, and yields in the bond market — where the banks borrow from to get money to loan out to mortgage buyers — are also getting cheaper.

In recent years, mortgage lenders have been keen to cut their rates in the lead-up to the busy spring buying season in order to gain market share.

Meridian’s announcement came with a potshot against the big banks, who haven’t passed on the full extent of the last two central bank rate cuts to consumers by lowering their consumer rates by the same amount.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank of Canada faces key rate decision Wednesday: To cut or not?

January 19, 2016

Bank of Canada faces key rate decision Wednesday: To cut or not?

Economists have conflicting views on whether the central bank should cut its rate or hold steady

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is set to reveal the bank's latest decision on interest rates on Wednesday, and many economists say a rate cut could be in the offing.

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is set to reveal the bank’s latest decision on interest rates on Wednesday, and many economists say a rate cut could be in the offing. (Ryan Remoritz/Canadian Press)

A year to the day after being surprised by a sudden rate cut, investors and mortgage holders will be anxiously waiting for the Bank of Canada’s next decision on interest rates.

A little after 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz will reveal the bank’s latest decision on interest rates. The bank can choose to raise its benchmark rate, known as the target for the overnight rate, from its current level of 0.5 per cent, lower it, or keep it the same.

Technically, all the bank’s rate does is govern the amount that retail banks charge each other for short-term loans. But it also filters down to impact the rates that borrowers and savers get for mortgages and savings accounts at commercial banks.

Broadly speaking, the bank opts to cut its rate when it wants to juice the economy by encouraging spending and investment, and it raises its rate when it wants to pump the brakes on inflation and cool down an overheated economy.

The bank’s rate decisions are always closely watched because they have such a direct impact on the real economy. But this decision will be of particular interest, since there’s growing fear the economic uncertainty of 2015 has morphed into full-blown crisis in 2016, with oil below $30 and the loonie below 70 cents US.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress