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July Non-OPEC and World Oil Production

July Non-OPEC and World Oil Production

The EIA continues to have problems with updating its World oil production website. Consequently, this month’s report is again a shorter version of previous posts because the EIA’s International Energy Statistics update for June and July is not available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China are used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world.

Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated. The average for the last six months up to May was used to project June and July production and in a few cases August production.

World oil production and projection charts are presented at the end of this post.

The current May International Energy Statistics has been updated to correct for the missing condensate production in the previous Russian file and is used for this report.

July Non-OPEC oil production increased by 520 kb/d to 52,245 kb/d and is up 1,706 kb/d from May. Close to 500 kb/d of the June increase is related to the EIA’s condensate correction for Russia in the EIA’s updated May International Energy Statistics. In the previous EIA May report, Russian condensate was not included in Russian production.

Using production data from the November 2023 STEO and the updated May EIA International Energy Statistics, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period August 2023 to December 2024. (Red graph).  Output is expected to reach 53,377 kb/d in December 2024, which is 969 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 52,408 kb/d. August production is expected to increase by 27 kb/d.

From August 2023 to December 2024, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 1,105. Note that production is expected to be relatively flat till May 2024.

July Non-OPEC W/O US production increased by 455 kb/d to 39,286 kb/d.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Permian Pushes US December Oil Production to Post Pandemic High

Permian Pushes US December Oil Production to Post Pandemic High

All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs November Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to September 2022.

U.S. September production increased by 289 kb/d to 12,268 kb/d.  It should be noted that August’s oil production was revised up by only 4 kb/d in the current September report. The large increase over the August update is real. For September, the states with the largest increase were Texas 90 kb/d, New Mexico 75 kb/d and North Dakota 43 kb/d. The Gulf of Mexico added 64 kb/d.

September’s production was at a new post pandemic high and crossed 12,000 kb/d. It is now 732 kb/d below the pre-pandemic high of 13,000 kb/d 

While overall US oil production increased, a clearer indication of the health of US production can be gleaned by looking more closely at the Onshore L48 states.  In the Onshore L48, September production increased by 208 kb/d to 9,989 kb/d. This means that 72% of the increase in US production came from the Onshore L48.

The blue graph, taken from the November 2022 STEO, is the production forecast for the U.S. from October 2022 to December 2023. Output for December 2023 is expected to be 12,580 kb/d.

The red OLS line from June 2020 to September 2022 indicates a monthly production increase of 50.5 kb/d/mth over that period. The first portion of red line stops at September because that is the range covered by the OLS analysis. The second portion is the same OLS line extended to see how well it fits the STEO forecast.

Oil Production Ranked by State

Listed above are the 10 states with the largest US production. These 10 accounted for 81.9% of all U.S. oil production out of a total production of 12,268 kb/d in September 2022. 

…click on the above link to read the rest…

June Non-OPEC Oil Production Rises from U.S. and Russia Boost

June Non-OPEC Oil Production Rises from U.S. and Russia Boost

Below are a number of Crude oil plus Condensate (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to June 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world. The US report has an expanded view beyond production by adding rig and frac charts.

June Non-OPEC production increased by 178 kb/d to 48,990 kb/d. The largest increases came from Russia, 510 kb/d and the U.S., 201 kb/d. The largest offsetting decreases came from Kazakhstan, 381 kb/d and Norway, 285 kb/d. 

Using data from the October 2022 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the time period July 2022 to December 2023. (Red graph).  Output is expected to be 50,266 kb/d in December 2023. This forecast is 608 kb/d lower than predicted in the September report due to significant downward changes in the October STEO.

The large increase in July is due to a 1,600 kb/d increase in all liquids over June forecast in the October STEO. The C + C projection reduces the 1,600 kb/d increase to 1,084 kb/d.

Note that the September 2022 high of 50,588 kb/d is the high for all of 2022 and 2023.

The red capacity decline line represents an average decline rate for Non-OPEC countries over the four years since December 2019 and is combination of the natural decline rate plus possible reduction in exploration and production capacity/investment.

Non-OPEC Oil Production Ranked by Country

…click on the above link to read the rest…

February Non-OPEC Oil Production Climbs

February Non-OPEC Oil Production Climbs

Below are a number of crude oil plus condensate (C + C ) production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to February 2022. This is the latest and most detailed world oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

February Non-OPEC production increased by 303 kb/d to 49,926 kb/d. Of the 303 kb/d increase, the biggest increase came from Canada 225 kb/d. Offsetting the increase were decreases from Brazil 116 kb/d and China 92 kb/d. The Febuary 2022 output of 49,926 kb/d is 2,274 kb/d lower than the March pre-covid rate of 52,200 kb/d.

Using data from the June 2022 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the time period March 2022 to December 2023. (Red graph).  Output is expected to reach 51,038 kb/d in December 2023. This is a 536 kb/d increase over the level reported in the previous report. Note the production drop of 848 kb/d to 48,947 kb/d in April in the red graph is associated with a production drop in the former Soviet Union.

Above are listed the world’s 11th largest Non-OPEC producers. The original criteria for inclusion in the table was that all of the countries produced more than 1,000 kb/d. The UK has been below 1,000 kb/d since January 2021. 

In February 2022, these 11 countries produced 84.5% of the Non-OPEC oil. On a YoY basis, Non-OPEC production increased by 2,929 kb/d while on a MoM basis production, it increased by 303 kb/d. World YoY February output increased by 6,750 kb/d. 

Production by Country

The EIA reported Brazil’s February production decreased by 116 kb/d to 2,917 kb/d. Brazil’s National Petroleum Association reported that April’s output increased by 18 kb/d to 2,999 kb/d, reversing February’s decline. (Red Markers). 

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US April Oil Production Flat

US April Oil Production Flat

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. After the production charts, an analysis of three EIA monthly reports that project future production is provided. The charts below are updated to April 2021 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.

U.S. April production was essentially flat. It decreased by 19 kb/d to 11,169 kb/d from Marchʼs output of 11,188 kb/d. It was also 113 kb/d higher than January’s.

The June STEO report forecasted US April output would be 11,082 kb/d vs the reported actual output for April of 11,169 kb/d, an under estimate of 87 kb/d. 

In the onshore lower 48, April production increased by 80 kb/d, red graph. The 99 kb/d difference between the US’ decrease and the On-shore L48’s increase was largely due to the 92 kb/d decrease from the GOM.

Ranking Production from US States

Listed above are the 10 states with the largest US production. These 10 accounted for 80.8% of US production out of a total production of 11,169 kb/d in April 2021. 

On a MoM basis, the largest barrel increases came from Colorado, Texas and New Mexico. On a YoY basis, all states except New Mexico and Utah had a lower output than last year. Note also that New Mexico’s output surpassed North Dakota and moved into second place.

Production by State

Texas production increased by 28 kb/d in April to 4,791 kb/d.  In the EIA’s June report, March’s output was revised up by 18 kb/d from 4,745 kb/d to 4,763 kb/d.

In April there were close to 194 oil rigs operation in Texas. By the fourth week of June 25, 201 were operating. From the end of April to the week of June 25, Texas added 7 oil rigs. It appears that the rate of adding rigs in Texas has slowed. See Rig chart in Section 4 further down.

April’s New Mexico production increased by 17 kb/d to 1,172 kb/d. April’s output is a new record.

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