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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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World GDP in current US dollars seems to have peaked; this is a problem

World GDP in current US dollars seems to have peaked; this is a problem World GDP in current US dollars is in some sense the simplest world GDP calculation that a person might make. It is calculated by taking the GDP for each year for each country in the local currency (for example, yen) and converting […]

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Debt: The Key Factor Connecting Energy and the Economy

Debt: The Key Factor Connecting Energy and the Economy There are many who believe that the use of energy is critical to the growth of the economy. In fact, I am among these people. The thing that is not as apparent is that growth in energy consumption is dependent on the growth of debt. Both energy and […]

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We are at Peak Oil now; we need very low-cost energy to fix it

We are at Peak Oil now; we need very low-cost energy to fix it This past week, I gave a presentation to a group interested in a particular type of renewable energy–solar energy that is deployed in space, so it would provide electricity 24 hours per day. Their question was: how low does the production cost […]

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Economic growth: How it works; how it fails; why wealth disparity occurs

Economic growth: How it works; how it fails; why wealth disparity occurs Economists have put together models of how an economy works, but these models were developed years ago, when the world economy was far from limits. These models may have been reasonably adequate when they were developed, but there is increasing evidence that they don’t […]

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Oops! Low oil prices are related to a debt bubble

Oops! Low oil prices are related to a debt bubble Why is the price of oil so low now? In fact, why are all commodity prices so low? I see the problem as being an affordability issue that has been hidden by a growing debt bubble. As this debt bubble has expanded, it has kept the sales prices […]

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Nine Reasons Why Low Oil Prices May “Morph” Into Something Much Worse

Nine Reasons Why Low Oil Prices May “Morph” Into Something Much Worse Why are commodity prices, including oil prices, lagging? Ultimately, it comes back to the question, “Why isn’t the world economy making very many of the end products that use these commodities?” If workers were getting rich enough to buy new homes and cars, demand for […]

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What Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico Have in Common

What Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico Have in Common We all know one thing that Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico have in common–severe financial problems. There is something else that they have in common–a high proportion of their energy use is from oil. Figure 1 shows the ratio of oil use to energy use for selected […]

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Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High

Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High When forecasting how much oil will be available in future years, a standard approach seems to be the following: Figure out how much GDP growth the researcher hopes to have in the future. “Work backward” to see how much oil is needed, based on how much […]

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Cuba: Figuring Out Pieces of the Puzzle

Cuba: Figuring Out Pieces of the Puzzle Cuba is an unusual country for quite a few reasons: The United States has had an embargo against Cuba since 1960, but there has recently been an announcement that the US will begin to normalize diplomatic relations. The leader of Cuba between 1959 and 2008 was Fidel Castro. Fidel Castro is […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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