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China’s oil demand is expected to hit a record high 16 million bpd this year, an increase of 800,000 bpd.
Having lifted its zero-Covid policy, China is currently suffering through an exit wave of Covid but should recover in the second quarter.
China is preparing for its reopening already, with the government issuing a huge batch of oil import quotas for its private refiners.

China’s oil consumption is expected to jump by 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year to a record 16 million bpd, after Beijing abandoned the strict ‘zero Covid’ policy and re-opened its borders, a median estimate of 11 China-focused consultants polled by Bloomberg News showed.

Following the initial exit Covid wave after the strictest curbs were lifted, Chinese oil demand is set to rebound from the second quarter onwards, also raising global oil demand for this year, many analysts say.

Despite the fact that China’s crude oil imports in 2022 were slightly lower than the previous year, for a second consecutive year, crude imports in December rose by 4% annually for the third highest monthly purchases in 2022, data showed on Friday.

Despite the current Covid wave, China is preparing for the re-opening with the issuance of a huge batch of oil import quotas for its private refiners.

“Higher quotas support the view of recovering Chinese demand this year and the quicker-than-expected change in Covid policy means that the demand recovery could be more robust than initially expected,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said this week.

Global oil demand in 2023 is expected to grow by around 1.7 million bpd, of which 50% will be driven by China, according to ING, which says “There could be some upside risk to this” forecast.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Exclusive: Saudi Arabia doubles second-quarter Russian fuel oil imports for power generation

July 21, 2022

Exclusive: Saudi Arabia doubles second-quarter Russian fuel oil imports for power generation

People walk near power plant number 10 at Saudi Electricity Company’s Central Operation Area, south of Riyadh, April 27, 2012./File Photo

Summary

This includes content produced in Russia, where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine.
Kingdom burns Russian fuel to free up crude for exports
Biden travels to ask Riyadh for more oil
Russia raises supply to Asia, Africa amid Western sanctions

MOSCOW/LONDON/DUBAI, July 15 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, more than doubled the amount of Russian fuel oil it imported in the second quarter to feed power stations to meet summer cooling demand and free up the kingdom’s own crude for export, data showed and traders said.

Russia has been selling fuel at discounted prices after international sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine left it with fewer buyers. Moscow calls the war in Ukraine a “special military operation”.

The increased sales of fuel oil, used in power generation, to Saudi Arabia show the challenge that U.S. President Joe Biden faces as his administration seeks to isolate Russia and cut its energy export revenues.

While many countries have banned or discouraged purchases from Russia, China, India and several African and Middle Eastern nations have increased imports.

Biden was on Friday visiting Saudi Arabia and was expected to seek an increase in oil supply to global markets from the kingdom to help to lower oil prices that have aggravated inflation worldwide. read more

There is little spare capacity for Saudi and others to increase production in the short term. Saudi Arabia has also maintained its cooperation with Russia in the alliance of global producers known as OPEC+. The two are the de facto leaders of respectively OPEC and non-OPEC producers in that group.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Australian fuel import bill going sky-high

May 26, 2022

Australian fuel import bill going sky-high

In March 2022 Australia’s petroleum product imports have reached almost AU$ 4 bn per month, an increase of 70% compared to December 2019.

Fig 1: Petroleum product imports by volume (black lines) and value (brown line)

Fig 2: Australian dollar to US$ exchange rate

The Australian Dollar was also around 0.7 US$ in December 2019, just like in May 2022 so it was not the exchange rate which drove up the bill in that period. It is the closure of Australian refineries (caused by peak oil of international oil companies), the oil price and the competition for fuels on the Asian market.

The Morrison government’s election-opportunistic cut of fuel excise duty by 50% until Sep 2022 will of course not reduce this import burden on the balance of payments. Fuel imports are now 12% of goods and services imports:

Fig 3: Goods and services debits (imports)
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/international-trade-goods-and-services-australia/latest-release#goods-and-services-debits-imports-seasonally-adjusted

Fig 4: Diesel imports by volume and value

Fig 5: Diesel imports by country

Australia’s dependency on China and a brand-new Chinese refinery in Brunei in the last years is clearly visible.

Fig 6: Monthly diesel imports

Imports change from month to month depending on the arrival of tankers. Diesel from China has been replaced by Diesel from India.

Fig 7: Petrol imports by value and volume

Fig 8: Petrol imports by country. Singapore now dominates

Fig 9: Jet fuel imports by value and volume

If jet fuel imports go back to their pre-Covid levels of, say, 600 ML/month the jet fuel import bill will double to A$ 700/month.

Conclusion: Australia must reduce its thirst for transport fuels. No new projects should be started which increase fuel consumption.

Australian Oil Stocks Consumption Cover
22 Mar 2022
https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-oil-stocks-consumption-cover

9/12/2021
Australia crude oil import vulnerabilities Sep 2021 data
http://crudeoilpeak.info/australia-crude-oil-import-vulnerabilities-sep-2021-data

15/2/2021
Exxon-Mobil’s refinery closure in Australia: peak oil context
https://crudeoilpeak.info/exxon-mobils-refinery-closure-in-australia-peak-oil-context

14/11/2020
Australia’s BP Kwinana refinery closure: peak oil context
https://crudeoilpeak.info/australias-bp-kwinana-refinery-closure-peak-oil-context

Crude Oil Flow From Saudi Arabia To U.S. Falls To Zero

January 7, 2021

Crude Oil Flow From Saudi Arabia To U.S. Falls To Zero

For the first time in 35 years, no oil flowed from Saudi Arabia to the United States last week, according to EIA data, in a show that the United States—at least for now—isn’t as reliant on oil from the Middle East like it used to be.

In October, according to the EIA, the United States imported 8.544 million barrels. In June, that figure was more than 36 million, although that figure was a bit of an anomaly as Saudi Arabia threatened to flood the U.S. market with crude oil.

In much of the early 2000s, the United States imported more than 45 million barrels of Saudi crude oil on a monthly basis.

Source: EIA

On a weekly basis, that figure has now fallen to zero.

Source: EIA

And the U.S. imports of crude oil are not just falling from Saudi Arabia. Through October, the United States imported significantly less crude oil from the Persian Gulf region.

In the early 2000s, the United States was importing more than 3 million barrels of crude oil per day from the Persian Gulf region. In October 2020, the United States imported less than a half a million barrels per day—and that figure isn’t an anomaly, it’s a clear trend. The United States is relying less and less on foreign oil, and particularly less and less on oil from the Persian Gulf.

Source: EIA

The data comes just as Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary million-barrel-per-day cut to its oil production as the OPEC+ group sat down to the negotiating table to hatch a plan to react to the oil market and the lack of demand.

It also comes on the same day that Saudi Arabia announced a crude oil price increase for the United States for February by $0Mor.20 per barrel.

No, The U.S. Is Not A Net Exporter Of Crude Oil

December 14, 2018

No, The U.S. Is Not A Net Exporter Of Crude Oil

Last week Bloomberg created quite a stir with this story: The U.S. Just Became a Net Oil Exporter for the First Time in 75 Years. I have seen a number of follow-up stories that praised the significance of this development, but others laughed it off as misleading or incorrect.

There is some truth to both viewpoints. Yes, the headline is somewhat misleading and requires some context. But there continues to be a trend in the direction of energy independence for the U.S. So, today I want to break down the numbers so readers can understand the truth about U.S. petroleum production, consumption, and exports.

Domestic Crude Production Has Surged

The Bloomberg story is based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Each week the EIA publishes detailed statistics on U.S. oil production, consumption, exports, and inventories in a report called the Weekly Petroleum Status Report. So, let’s go straight to the source.

For the week ending 11/30/18, the EIA reported that the U.S. produced 11.7 million barrels per day (BPD) of crude oil. That represents a 2 million BPD increase from the year-ago number. This number is generally accepted even by those who believe the Bloomberg headline was misleading.

Further down in the report, the category of Products Supplied is listed at 20.5 million BPD. This is approximate U.S. crude oil consumption for the week. Thus, as some skeptics of the story suggested, the bottom line is that the U.S. is burning more than 20 million BPD while producing less than 12 million BPD. Thus, the conclusion for some was that the U.S. isn’t close to being energy independent.

Other Supply

But there is important context between these numbers. First, the 20.5 million BPD is a fairly accurate representation of U.S. consumption, but there is a large U.S. production number that isn’t included in the crude oil production numbers.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Does The U.S. Really Need Saudi Oil?

November 23, 2018

Does The U.S. Really Need Saudi Oil?

“Saudi Arabia — if we broke with them, I think your oil prices would go through the roof. I’ve kept them down,” President Trump told reporters on Tuesday. “They’ve helped me keep them down. Right now we have low oil prices, or relatively. I’d like to see it go down even lower — lower.”

Oil prices have indeed fallen significantly in recent weeks, and to be sure, Saudi Arabia has played a large role in that. Saudi production reportedly hit a record high 11 million barrels per day (mb/d) at times this month, and global inventories are rising once again.

But Riyadh is also clearly upset at being “duped” by Trump. Having been convinced by the Trump administration that Iran’s oil exports were heading to zero, or at least close to zero, Saudi Arabia ramped up supply to offset the losses.

The U.S. then surprised the market by issuing a bunch of waivers, allowing Iran to continue to export oil. Japan and South Korea may even resume buying oil from Iran in January, after cutting imports to zero in anticipation of sanctions.

Almost immediately after the waivers were issued, oil prices crashed. Saudi Arabia then promptly announced that it would cut production by 500,000 bpd in December, and the rumors of an OPEC+ cut really began to pick up.

Trump is happy about the slide in oil prices, but Saudi Arabia clearly isn’t. Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners could soon take action to push prices back up. So, it isn’t clear that Washington and Riyadh have the same objectives, or that their tight relationship is resulting in lower oil prices.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Sino-Russian interdependence will be based on oil

November 18, 2018

Sino-Russian interdependence will be based on oil

Although Beijing is Moscow’s largest trading partner, while Russia only ranks in the second ten among China’s importers, the Kremlin is strategically the most important contractor because it supplies the most desirable product – oil – and Chinese demand for this raw material is growing. It appears that an increase in Russian oil exports to China will be at the expense of European consumers.

Chinese oil production has been falling since 2015, and yet enormous infrastructure investments and huge strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) boost the demand for it. No wonder then that in 2017, Beijing became the largest importer of crude oil, overtaking the United States. Currently, China’s consumption of product is approaching 13 million barrels per day. In the March Gefira we predicted that the PRC will have become the largest consumer of this raw material by 2025, accounting for 18-20% of the global consumption.¹⁾And Russia has an important role to play because already in 2016 it became China’s most important oil supplier, replacing Saudi Arabia.

China has been buying more and more Russian oil in the last decade, even though the Kremlin does not increase its export volume, which is around 5 million barrels per day. In 2009, countries such as Poland and the Netherlands imported more Russian crude oil than Beijing, but in 2015 they were overtaken by China, which in 2017 had an over 20% share in the Russian exports of this raw material.

In recent years, an increase in the Sino-Russian trade balance has been noticeable. While a decade ago, the total turnover was less than 45 billion USD, in the last year this result was almost twice as high: 84 billion USD. During the November meeting of the prime ministers of both countries, it was announced that the target would be to reach the level of 200 billion USD, with the energy industry, mainly oil and gas, being the main factor in the balance sheet growth.²⁾

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Saudis Cut Oil Exports To U.S. To Boost Crude Prices

November 17, 2018

Saudis Cut Oil Exports To U.S. To Boost Crude Prices

Saudi Arabia has been slashing oil exports to the United States over the past two months, in what looks like a move to force a reduction in the world’s most transparently reported inventories that could put the Saudis on a collision course with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly said that oil prices should be much lower.

The Saudis started to reduce shipments to the United States in September, and this month they are loading around 600,000 bpd on cargoes en route to the United States, down from more than 1 million bpd in July and August for example, CNBC reports, quoting figures from ClipperData.

According to ClipperData estimates, Saudi oil exports to the United States could soon reach their lowest levels on record.

The Saudi tactic to send reduced volumes to the States—which regularly reports every week crude oil inventories—succeeded last year.

Reduced Saudi oil imports tend to reflect in lower weekly U.S. inventories, while in the past weeks, crude builds have been weighing on oil prices, together with fears of an oversupplied global market and signs of slowing economic and oil demand growth.

“It worked so well in 2017 for [the Saudis] to cut flows to the U.S. because people could see the inventories dropping because U.S. data is so timely and transparent,” Matt Smith, head of commodities research at ClipperData, told CNBC.

Due to seasonally lower demand, Saudi Arabia will reduce its supply to the global markets by 500,000 bpd in December compared to November, Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said this weekend. On Monday, al-Falih affirmed that OPEC will do ‘whatever it takes’ to balance the market, admitting that the cartel’s analysis shows that another cut of 1 million bpd may be required.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran’s Top Oil Customers Resist U.S. Calls For Zero Imports

November 2, 2018

Iran’s Top Oil Customers Resist U.S. Calls For Zero Imports

Just a few days before U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports return on November 5, the keywords about how much of Iran’s oil will come off the market are ‘lack of clarity’.

On the one hand, it’s unclear how much Iranian oil will really be removed from the market, considering that Iran has already started to switch off transponders on board of some of its cargoes, although ship-tracking data on the tankers that can be tracked shows that Iranian oil exports are falling, but not as steeply as the market and analysts were expecting just a month or two ago.

On the other hand, it’s unclear whether the United States would grant any waivers, with U.S. Administration officials giving mixed signals.

Yet, one thing is clear, and here analysts were right—Iran’s top two single largest oil customers, China and India, will continue to import Iranian crude. Although China and India’s Iranian oil intake in recent months has fluctuated, and although some of their companies most exposed to the U.S. financial system have drastically reduced or outright stopped imports from Iran (like India’s Reliance Industries), the countries saw their imports in the first three weeks of October increase or hold steady around the volumes from recent months.

According to S&P Global Platts trade flow data, Iran’s oil shipments to China between October 1 and 21 averaged 800,000 bpd, up from around 600,000 bpd average for September. Last year, average Chinese imports of Iranian oil were 602,500 bpd, Platts has estimated.

About half of China’s crude oil and condensate imports from Iran in October, around 400,000 bpd, were bound for a storage hub in Dalian in northeastern China, according to Platts sources and shipping data. The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has reportedly leased some storage capacity at Dalian.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Chinese Imports Of US Crude Have “Totally Stopped” As Tariff Threats Persist

October 4, 2018

Chinese Imports Of US Crude Have “Totally Stopped” As Tariff Threats Persist

It has been roughly two months since China threatened to impose a 25% tariff on US energy imports (it eventually went back on those threats), and less than two weeks since the latest round of tariffs has been implemented. But even as China has shied away from its threats to punish the US energy industry, Reuters data are showing that imports of US oil to China have ground to a halt.

Confirming the data, Xie Chunlin, the president of China Merchants Energy Shipping Co, said on Wednesday that crude oil shipments to China have “totally stopped” as the trade war has taken its toll, reversing growth in what had been a rapidly expanding market for US shale producers.

“We are one of the major carriers for crude oil from the U.S. to China. Before (the trade war) we had a nice business, but now it’s totally stopped,” Chunlin said on the sidelines of the Global Maritime Forum’s Annual Summit in Hong Kong.

“It’s unfortunately happened, the trade war between the U.S. and China. Surely for the shipping business, it’s not good,” the CMES president said.

He also said the trade dispute was forcing China to seek soybeans from suppliers other than the United States, adding that China now bought most its soybeans from South America.

In place of US imports, China, which is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, is becoming increasingly reliant on the Middle East and Russia while it has also shifted to using Iranian tankers to bypass impending US sanctions on Iranian crude while also becoming more reliant on Iranian crude in general. But while it’s grabbing the most headlines right now, the trade fight is hardly the only source of contention between US oil producers and China, as China’s yuan-denominated crude futures contracts are beginning to show their teeth.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Denmark Becomes Net Oil Importer For First Time In 25 Years

September 1, 2018

Denmark Becomes Net Oil Importer For First Time In 25 Years

For the first time since 1993, Denmark is on track to become a net oil importer this year, as oil production in the Danish part of the North Sea will be lower than the country’s consumption, the Danish Energy Agency said on Thursday, revising down its oil production forecasts.

The new forecast by the agency is a change from last year’s assessment and forecasts, which had expected that Denmark would continue to be a net oil exporter for a number of years, the agency said.

Now, the country is expected to be a net oil exporter for a single year, in 2024, when oil production is forecast to exceed consumption due to expected start-up of new developments.

The Danish Energy Agency revised down its oil production forecast by 8 percent compared to last year’s forecast, mostly due to a downward revision of the resources, delays, and a “greater uncertainty regarding the development of several fields and discoveries.”

For this year, the agency expects Denmark’s oil production to average just 128,000 bpd, a figure 10 percent lower than last year’s 2018, mainly due to what is expected to be lower production from some of the larger oil fields.

Between 2018 and 2022, the oil production estimate was revised down by an average 14 percent, attributable again to lower production expected at some larger oil fields.

The outlook for Denmark’s natural gas exporter status is rosier. Denmark is expected to remain a net natural gas exporter until 2035, except for the years 2020 and 2021 when the Tyra field redevelopment—approved last year—will be underway, the Danish agency noted.

“The approval of the rebuilding of the facilities on the Tyra field implies that the uncertainty in this regard is less than before. However, great uncertainty remains with regard to the development of a number of projects hence contributing to the forecast being somewhat uncertain,” the agency said.

Canada Frees Itself From Saudi Oil Imports

August 9, 2018

Canada Frees Itself From Saudi Oil Imports

The ongoing political row between Canada and Saudi Arabia over Ottawa’s demand that the kingdom release detained women’s rights activists in the country is picking up momentum. Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia ordered the Canadian ambassador to leave Saudi Arabia “within 24 hours” after his country criticized the recent arrest of Saudi women’s rights activists.

However, Saudi Arabia, showing heightened sensitivity into what it perceives as foreign intrusion into its own affairs, upped the ante even more, by saying it would freeze “all new business” between the kingdom and Canada and also in an admittedly knee-jerk response, recalled thousands of Saudi students attending Canadian universities, a move to hurt Canada financially.

Omar Allam, a former Canadian diplomat and head of Allam Advisory Group, said the recall of 12,000 to 15,000 Saudi students from Canada, and accompanying relatives, is going to remove as much as CAD$2 billion in annual investment in the Canadian economy.

Ratcheting up rhetoric

“Any further step from the Canadian side in that direction will be considered as acknowledgment of our right to interfere in the Canadian domestic affairs,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said. “Canada and all other nations need to know that they can’t claim to be more concerned than the kingdom over its own citizens.”

Canada, however, sees the situation differently. “Canada will always stand up for the protection of human rights, very much including women’s rights, and freedom of expression around the world,” Marie-Pier Baril, a spokeswoman for Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a statement. “Our government will never hesitate to promote these values and believes that this dialogue is critical to international diplomacy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Chinese Refiner Halts US Oil Purchases, May Use Iran Oil Instead

July 8, 2018

Chinese Refiner Halts US Oil Purchases, May Use Iran Oil Instead

With the US and China contemplating their next moves in what is now officially a trade war, a parallel narrative is developing in the world of energy where Asian oil refiners are racing to secure crude supplies in anticipation of an escalating trade war between the US and China, even as Trump demands all US allies cut Iran oil exports to zero by November 4 following sanctions aimed at shutting the country out of oil markets.

Concerned that the situation will deteriorate before it gets better, Asian refiners are moving swiftly to secure supplies with South Korea leading the way. Under pressure from Washington, Seoul has already halted all orders of Iranian oil, according to sources, even as it braces from spillover effects from the U.S.-China tit-for-tat on trade.

“As South Korea’s economy heavily relies on trade, it won’t be good for South Korea if the global economic slowdown happens because of a trade dispute between U.S and China,” said Lee Dal-seok, senior researcher at the Korea Energy Economic Institute (KEEI).

Meanwhile, Chinese state media has unleashed a full-on propaganda blitzkrieg, slamming Trump’s government as a “gang of hoodlums”, with officials vowing retaliation, while the chairman of Sinochem just become China’s official leader of the anti-Trump resistance, quoting Michelle Obama’s famous slogan “when they go low, we go high.” Standing in the line of fire are U.S. crude supplies to China, which have surged from virtually zero before 2017 to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July.

Representing a modest 5% of China’s overall crude imports, these supplies are worth $1 billion a month at current prices – a figure that seems certain to fall should a duty be implemented.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Areas Of The World More Vulnerable To Collapse

June 17, 2018

Areas Of The World More Vulnerable To Collapse

Certain areas of the world are more vulnerable to economic and societal collapse. While most analysts gauge the strength or weakness of an economy based on its outstanding debt or debt to GDP ratio, there is another factor that is a much better indicator. To understand which areas and regions in the world that will suffer a larger degree of collapse than others, we need to look at their energy dynamics.

For example, while the United States is still the largest oil consumer on the planet, it is no longer the number one oil importer. China surpassed the United States by importing a record 8.9 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2017. This data came from the recently released BP 2018 Statistical Review. Each year, BP publishes a report that lists each countries’ energy production and consumption figures.

BP also lists the total oil production and consumption for each area (regions and continents). I took BP’s figures and calculated the Net Oil Exports for each area. As we can see, the Middle East has the highest amount of net oil exports with 22.3 million barrels per day in 2017:

The figures in the chart above are shown in “thousand barrels per day.” Russia and CIS (Commonwealth Independent States) came in second with 10 mbd of net oil exports followed by Africa with 4 mbd and Central and South America with 388,000 barrels per day. The areas with the negative figures are net oil importers.

The area in the world with the largest net oil imports was the Asia-Pacific region at 26.6 mbd followed by Europe with 11.4 mbd and North America (Canada, USA & Mexico) at 4.1 mbd.

Now, that we understand the energy dynamics shown in the chart above, the basic rule of thumb is that the areas in the world that are more vulnerable to collapse are those with the highest amount of net oil imports.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Update on Australian oil import vulnerability May 2018

May 10, 2018

Update on Australian oil import vulnerability May 2018

Iran_crude_oil_loadings_Jan2016-Mar2018

iran-oil-export-destinations-data

How well is Australia prepared? The Turnbull government has just started yet another fuel security review. Similar efforts in previous Energy Security Assessments and Senate Inquiries resulted in little action (see earlier articles on this website below). In fact, the government’s latest Budget 2018 contains numerous projects in oil dependent infrastructure which lowers fuel security.

Roads get $4.5bn in Australia budget but rail spending forced to wait
8/5/2018
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/08/australia-federal-budget-2018-road-rail-spending-infrastructure-highways

Minister for the Environment and Energy

Fuel Security Review

7 May 2018

The Turnbull Government will assess Australia’s liquid fuel security to help deliver affordable and reliable energy.

Liquid fuel, such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel, accounts for 37 per cent of Australia’s energy use, including 98 per cent of transport needs.

Over the past two years, we have been focused on securing reliable and affordable electricity and gas. It is time now to consider Australia’s liquid fuel security.

The assessment is the prudent and proper thing to do to make sure we aren’t complacent. It should not be construed as Australia having a fuel security problem.

The comprehensive assessment will look at how fuel is supplied and used in Australia, including our resilience to withstand disruptions both overseas and in Australia.

We have not experienced a significant disruption to fuels supplies since the OPEC oil crises in the 1970s, but there is no room to be complacent.

Australia’s liquid fuel supply increasingly depends on overseas sources and relies on market forces to maintain reliability and affordability. The assessment will identify whether the Government should take further steps to ensure Australia’s domestic fuel supply is reliable.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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