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Norway’s Interest Rate Conundrum
Norway’s Interest Rate Conundrum
Current Situation
The ECB recently stimulated more than expected, cutting rates by five basis points and expanding quantitative easing. It is already expected that Norges Bank (The Norwegian Central Bank) will cut rates next week, seeing accelerating inflation as temporary. They have a 2.5% inflation target mandate “over time,” giving them lee-way. They see demand falling off while the local economy, driven by exports, recovering. Therefore, they feel that they can cut rates. My previous articles challenged the assumptions that the oil sector will recover, showing that new technology reduces long term prices below offshore break-even points, and exports can make up the difference, illustrating that key sectors, like fishing, can be replicated in Canada, Maine, Russia and Japan.
We are experiencing 1970’s style stagflation, coming from the supply side, not demand. Prices are going up because Norges Bank continues to destroy the Norwegian Krone, turning it into the Nordic Peso. This is where they are “hiding” the damage to save rest of the economy. For example, housing prices will rise in NOK but fall in USD or gold (universal commodity) terms. It’s a shell game, leading to long term decline or even worse, an unexpected period of elevated inflation, requiring a rapid rise in interest rates. Housing remains at risk in this situation (Norway does not have 30 year fixed loans, most people float monthly).
I am in no position to stop them from making trips to Thailand, fruit from Spain and iPhones from California more expensive, but at least I can share my knowledge with others.
The dashboard, above, lines up key figures, showing how low rates drive inflation, gradually eroding public wealth. It is important to notice that inflation is much higher than interest paid at the bank, punishing responsible behavior. A person’s savings diminishes over time in terms of purchasing power.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
HSBC Looks At “Life Below Zero,” Says “Helicopter Money” May Be The Only Savior
HSBC Looks At “Life Below Zero,” Says “Helicopter Money” May Be The Only Savior
For whatever reason, Haruhiko Kuroda’s move into NIRP seemed to spark a heretofore unseen level of public debate about the drawbacks of negative rates. Indeed, NIRP became so prevalent in the public consciousness that celebrities began to discuss central bank policy on Twitter.
When we say “for whatever reason” we don’t mean that the public shouldn’t be concerned about NIRP. In fact, we mean the exact opposite. The ECB, the Nationalbank, the SNB, and the Riksbank have all been mired in ineffectual NIRP for quite sometime and the public seemed almost completely oblivious. Indeed, even the financial media treated this lunacy as though it were some kind of cute Keynesian experiment that could be safely confined to Europe which would serve as a testing ground for whether policies that fly in the face of the financial market equivalent of Newtonian physics could be implemented without the world suddenly imploding.
We imagine the fact that equity markets got off to such a volatile start to the year, combined with the fact that crude continued to plunge and at one point looked as though it might sink into the teens, led quite a few people to look towards the monetary Mount Olympus (where “gods” like Draghi, Yellen, and Kuroda intervene in human affairs when necessary to secure “desirable” economic outcomes) only to discover that not only has all the counter-cyclical maneuverability been exhausted, we’ve actually moved beyond the point where the ammo is gone into a realm where the negative rate mortgage is a reality.
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Germany Unveils “Cash Controls” Push: Ban Transactions Over €5,000, €500 Euro Note
Germany Unveils “Cash Controls” Push: Ban Transactions Over €5,000, €500 Euro Note
It was just two days ago that Bloomberg implored officials to “bring on a cashless future” in an Op-Ed that calls notes and coins “dirty, dangerous, unwieldy, and expensive.”
You probably never thought of your cash that way, but increasingly, authorities and the powers that be seem determined to lay the groundwork for the abolition of what Bloomberg calls “antiquated” physical money.
We’ve documented the cash ban calls on a number of occasions including, most recently, those that emanated from DNB, Norway’s largest bank where executive Trond Bentestuen said that although “there is approximately 50 billion kroner in circulation, the Norges Bank can only account for 40 percent of its use.”
That, Bentestuen figures, “means that 60 percent of money usage is outside of any control.” “We believe,” he continues, “that is due to under-the-table money and laundering.”
DNB goes on to say that after identifying “many dangers and disadvantages” associated with cash, the bank has “concluded that it should be phased out.”
On Tuesday we got the latest evidence that officials across the globe are preparing to institute a cashless “utopia” when Handelsblatt reported (in a piece called “The Death of Cash) that the Social Democrats – the junior partner in Angela Merkel’s coalition government – have proposed a €5,000 limit on cash transactions and the elimination of the €500 note.
Berlin is using a familiar scapegoat to justify the plan: the need to fight “terrorists” and “foreign criminals.”
“Limits on cash transactions would discourage foreign criminals from coming here to launder money,” says a paper penned by the Social Democrats. “If sums over €5,000 have to pass through traceable bank transactions, laundering would be severely hampered, it adds.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Norway Pushes Panic Button: “We’re In A Crisis Now, We Can’t Deny That”
Norway Pushes Panic Button: “We’re In A Crisis Now, We Can’t Deny That”
We’ve spent quite a bit of time documenting Norway’s precarious balancing act in the face of slumping crude prices.
On the one hand, falling crude puts pressure on the krone which essentially allows the Norges Bank to compete in the regional currency wars without resorting to the same type of deeply negative rates as the ECB, the Riksbank, the Nationalbank, and the SNB. In short, a falling krone preserves export competitiveness in a world gone Keynesian crazy.
At the same time, falling crude puts enormous pressure on the country’s economy, which is heavily dependent on oil production
Additionally, collapsing crude revenue means the country will soon be forced to drawdown its $830 billion sovereign wealth fund (the largest in the world) to plug the various budget leaks caused by “lower for longer.”
Now, Norway has declared that its oil industry has entered a “crisis.”
“[The] industry is in a crisis now, we can’t deny that,” Bente Nyland, director general of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, told Bloomberg who reminds us that “Norway depends on oil and gas for about one-fifth of its economic output and nationwide, the petroleum industry has cut almost 30,000 jobs.”
The government last year announced plans to boost spending on the way to shoring up the flagging economy and officials says those measures – which are part of the reason why Norway will pull money from the SWF – should be sufficient to offset the pain from lower crude prices. “Finance Minister Siv Jensen says budget proposals put forward last year already contain ‘a lot of expansion’ and will help stem job losses,” Bloomberg continues, before noting that “the question is how quickly the economic adjustment brought on by a weaker krone will manifest itself.”
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Did Mario Draghi Just Leak The Bazooka? Two-Tiered NIRP System May Presage Big Rate Cut
Did Mario Draghi Just Leak The Bazooka? Two-Tiered NIRP System May Presage Big Rate Cut
Back in September (and on several subsequent occasions), we discussed the implications of a further cut to the ECB’s depo rate. A plunge further into NIRP-dom would have serious consequences for the Riksbank, the SNB, the Nationalbank, and the Norges Bank.
In world dominated by beggar-thy-neighbor monetary policy, one cut begets another in race to the bottom as everyone scrambles to, i) keep their currency from soaring and ii) keep the inflationary impulse alive.
As Barclays explained in great detail several months ago, another ECB depo rate cut would have an outsized effect of the franc:
A cut in the ECB’s deposit rate further into negative territory likely would have a significant impact on the EURCHF exchange rate and provoke a more immediate response from the SNB. Indeed, we expect that a cut in the ECB’s deposit rate may have a greater effect on EURCHF than on other EUR crosses. Switzerland applies its negative deposit rate to only a fraction of reserves, currently about 1/3rd of sight deposits by our calculation. In contrast, negative deposit rates apply to all reserves held at the ECB, Riksbank and Denmark’s Nationalbank. Consequently, a cut to the ECB’s deposit rate likely has a larger impact both on the economy and on the exchange rate than a proportionate cut by the SNB.
Now, it appears Mario Draghi may be about to go the Swiss route by introducing a tiered system for the application of negative rates. As Reuters reports, “Euro zone central bank officials are considering options such as whether to stagger charges on banks hoarding cash ahead of the next European Central Bank meeting, according to officials.”
“Officials are discussing a split-level rate,” Reuters goes on to note, adding that the “contested step would impose a higher charge on banks depending on the amount of cash they deposit with the ECB.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Global Easing Bonanza Continues As Norway, Taiwan Cut Rates To Spur Struggling Economies
Global Easing Bonanza Continues As Norway, Taiwan Cut Rates To Spur Struggling Economies
On several occasions this year we’ve profiled Norway where the central bank, much like the Riksbank in neighboring Sweden, is walking a fine line between keeping rates low to support the economy (not to mention remain competitive in the global currency wars) and being mindful of the effect low rates have on an overheating housing market.
Like the Riksbank, The Norges Bank is in a tough spot. The property bubble quite clearly needs to be arrested but using monetary policy to rein in the housing market means leaning hawkish in a world of DM doves and that can be exceptionally dangerous especially when your economy is heavily dependent on oil and crude prices are crashing.
Indeed, the pain from low oil prices has become so acute that Norway may ultimately be forced to tap its $900 billion sovereign wealth fund in order to avoid fiscal retrenchment.
Given the above, no one was surprised (well, no one except PhD economists, most of whom got this one wrong) when the Norges Bank cut rates on Thursday, taking the overnight depo rate to a record low of 0.75%. Here’s Bloomberg:
Norway’s central bank cut interest rates to an all-time low and said it may ease policy further as it seeks to rescue an expansion in western Europe’s biggest petroleum producer amid a plunge in oil prices.
The overnight deposit rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent, the Oslo-based central bank said Thursday. The move was forecast by seven of the 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, with the remainder expecting no change. The bank forecast its rate may fall as low as 0.59 percent in third quarter of next year. The krone plunged 2 percent against the euro on the news, its biggest drop since August.
“Growth prospects for the Norwegian economy have weakened, and inflation is projected to abate further out,” Governor Oeystein Olsen said in a statement
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
This Is What Global Currency War Looks Like: A Complete History Of Recent FX Interventions
This Is What Global Currency War Looks Like: A Complete History Of Recent FX Interventions
After the dramatic collapse in the SNB’s defense of the Swiss Franc peg to the Euro, there was a period of relative FX peace in which few if any central banks engaged in outright currency intervention (aside from the countless rate cuts so far in 2015 in response to the soaring strength of the USD, which has risen dramatically over the past year for all the wrong reasons). Then China last night reminded us what happens when in a centrally-planned world one or more markets take too great advantage of relative FX differentials, in this case Japan, whose Yen plunged from USDJPY 80 to 125, and the Euro, which tumbled from EURUSD 1.40 to just above parity.
Now, it’s China’s turn.
But as we pointed out before, FX interventions never take place in a vacuum, and especially during periods of rising dollar strength, when the entire FX world, and especially exporters and mercantilists, go berserk.
Furthermore as Stone McCarthy notes, “this is the sort of “international development” that the Fed will need to keep an eye on and assess as conditions align for the start of policy normalization.” The reason is simple: what China just did could make a rate hike impossible as multinational US corporations will be slammed with a double whammy of soaring dollar and sliding CNY, making US exports that much tougher. And as we won’t tire of repeating, the Fed can not print trade.
And just to help remind readers of what happens when the entire world engages in wholesale currency war, here is a complete list of all the recent FX interventions, courtesy of Stone McCarthy.
Summary of Recent FX Interventions:
The last period of any significant Fed interventions in foreign exchange markets was during 1994-1995 when the dollar reached all time lows against what were then the benchmark currencies of the Japanese yen and German deutsche mark, and the period of the Mexican Peso Crisis. After that, it was acting to defend the value of the yen and new-minted euro.
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