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Exploring the Massive Clean Energy Boondoggle of Burning Trees as Carbon Neutral
Exploring the Massive Clean Energy Boondoggle of Burning Trees as Carbon Neutral
EPA Declared That Burning Wood Is Carbon Neutral
In 2018, the EPA Declared That Burning Wood Is Carbon Neutral.
Yesterday [April 23, 2018], the Environmental Protection Agency announced that it would begin to count the burning of “forest biomass”—a.k.a. wood—as carbon neutral. The change will classify burning of wood pellets a renewable energy similar to solar or wind power.
[But] Even if a tree is planted for every tree converted to fuel pellets, trees regrown on plantations don’t store the same carbon as natural forests. One recent study suggests it would take 40 to 100 years for a managed forest to capture the same amount of carbon as a natural forest. And since most plantation forests are harvested at 20 year intervals, they will never make it to the carbon-neutral point.
“Unless forests are guaranteed to regrow to carbon parity, production of wood pellets for fuel is likely to result in more CO2 in the atmosphere and fewer species than there are today,” William Schlesinger, President Emeritus of the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies writes for Science.
Doomberg picked up on this idea in an extensive set of Tweets.
Doomberg Tweet Thread
- In the second half of the 16th century, Britain plunged into an energy crisis. At the time, the primary source of energy driving the British economy was heat derived from the burning of wood, and Britain was literally running out of trees.
…click on the above link to read the rest…
The Harsh Reality of Energy TINA Strikes the US and Europe
The Harsh Reality of Energy TINA Strikes the US and Europe
Natural gas chart courtesy of Trading Economics, annotations by Mish.
Some European Factories, Long Dependent on Cheap Russian Energy, Are Shutting Down
The Wall Street Journal reports Some European Factories, Long Dependent on Cheap Russian Energy, Are Shutting Down
For decades, European industry relied on Russia to supply low-cost oil and natural gas that kept the continent’s factories humming.
Now Europe’s industrial energy costs are soaring in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine, hobbling manufacturers’ ability to compete in the global marketplace. Factories are scrambling to find alternatives to Russian energy under threat that Moscow could abruptly turn off the gas spigot, bringing production to a halt.
Europe’s producers of chemicals, fertilizer, steel and other energy-intensive goods have come under pressure over the last eight months as tensions with Russia climbed ahead of the February invasion. Some producers are shutting down in the face of competition from factories in the U.S., the Middle East and other regions where energy costs are much lower than in Europe. Natural-gas prices are now nearly three times higher in Europe than in the U.S.
The Sanction Impact
Global map from Nations Online Project, annotations by Mish
De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation
On April 4, I wrote De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation
What I called “proposed” then is happening now.
The EU does not want to use Russian oil or natural gas.
So instead, the EU gets oil from Saudi Arabia and has turned to the US for liquid natural gas (LNG).
This economic madness is driving up the price of natural gas in the US as well.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
End of the 40-Year Bull in Debt and a “Global Depression” Threat
End of the 40-Year Bull in Debt and a “Global Depression” Threat
Discussion Topics
Please do yourself a favor and watch the video link below. Here are just some of topics discussed.
- Possible end of the 40-year bull in debt, if so a “global depression” threat
- Emerging Market Blowups
- The Yen
- Equity Markey Complacence – Bond Market Reacting to Reality of Higher Interest Rates, Equity Markets Say Prove Hikes Are Coming
- Game of Chicken
- Average age of Senators – No one will stand up to the Fed except Pat Toomey
- Jay Powell knows the damage he did by saving BBB-rated bonds
- Yield Curve Inversions – How Much Time Is There?
- Watch currencies especially in countries importing energy
- Inventories
- De-globalization
- Not going to get fiscal stimulus in this mid-term election year.
- Housing wealth effect in reverse
- Violent unwind of the carry trade (Yen and Euro)
- Pension Plan Irony, Pension Plan Risk, Pension Plan Ponzi Schemes
- Fed Pushes Legal Limits
- Monetary policy favors the 1%
- Extends and Pretend on Commercial Real Estate Loans, Midsize Banks Hold this Debt
- Investment ideas: Look for Safe Municipals (not Illinois), Gold, Cash
- Avoid value traps like discretionary spending and healthcare, wary of energy because of huge valuation runups
Two Teaser Quotes
In response to a question about the end of the 40-year bull market in bonds, Booth replied:
“I don’t do hyperbole at all, but if this really is the end, and we really are going to see real rates rise appreciably, then you are talking about a global depression.”
Later in the interview, Booth commented “If you want a front row seat with popcorn, follow the EM [emerging market] space.”
YouTube Interview
Thanks to Danielle DiMartino Booth and Francis Hunt for an amazingly informative video interview.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash
Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash
S&P 500 chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish with thanks to Jeremy Grantham.
Fourth Super Bubble
For almost a half-century, value-investing icon Jeremy Grantham has been calling market bubbles. Now, he says U.S. stocks are in a “super bubble,” only the fourth in history, and poised to collapse.
Please do yourself a big favor and play the above interview in entirety.
It’s not a fluff interview. Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker grills Jeremy Grantham right from the get go about Grantham’s view a year ago.
Q&A Snips
Schatzker: At the risk of putting words in your mouth, you are as certain [now] as you were then, if not more?
Grantham: I would say clearly more. I did freely admit, not in our conversation, but elsewhere, that I wasn’t quite as certain about this bubble a year ago as I had been about the tech bubble of 2000 or as I had been in Japan or as I had been in the housing bubble of 2007. I used to think in terms of near certainties. This time I felt highly likely bit perhaps not nearly certain. Today I feel it is just about nearly certain.
Grantham discusses “crazy behavior” , noting that even in 1929 you had some magnificent rallies.
Schatzker: If you are right and stocks are in a multi-sigma deviation from the statistical trend, tell me what happens. The S&P 500 peaked at almost 4800 points. What is the bottom?
Grantham: The trend line, being slightly generous, is 2500. And most of the great bubbles, the super bubbles go below trend and stay there for quite a while…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Water Shortage Crisis, Hoover Dam is at Record-Low Water Level
Water Shortage Crisis, Hoover Dam is at Record-Low Water Level
Severe Drought Could Threaten Power Supply in West for Years to Come
The WSJ reports Severe Drought Could Threaten Power Supply in West for Years to Come
The water level at Lake Mead, the Colorado River reservoir serving the Hoover Dam, fell to 1,068 ft. in July, the lowest level since the lake was first filled following the dam’s construction in the 1930s. This month, the federal government is expected to declare a water shortage on the Colorado River for the first time, triggering cutbacks in water allocations to surrounding states from the river.
If the water level drops 118 ft. from July’s level, to 950 ft., it would fall below the turbines and the dam must shut down, said Patti Aaron, public affairs officer at the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
The power declines are significant. At 1,200 ft. water elevation—where it was in the year 2000, when water levels were among the dam’s highest levels—the dam can power up to 450,000 homes. At the current elevation, that figure falls to 350,000.
The California Independent System Operator, or Caiso, which oversees the state’s power grid, last summer resorted to rolling blackouts during a West-wide heat wave that constrained the state’s ability to import electricity. The supply crunch was most acute in the evening, after solar production declined.
Elevation Stats
- Max Level: 1,229 Feet
- Level in 2000: 1,200 Feet
- Current Level: 1,068 Feet
- Decline Since 2000: 132 Feet
- Drop to Zero Power: 118 Feet
Colorado River Supply
Lake Powell feeds Lake Mead. The Colorado River supplies both.
Lake Powell is part of the Colorado River Upper Basin and Lake Mead is in the Lower Basin.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Lacy Hunt On Debt and Friedman’s Famous Quote Regarding Inflation and Money
Lacy Hunt On Debt and Friedman’s Famous Quote Regarding Inflation and Money
Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook 2nd Quarter 2021
Here are some snips to the latest at Hoisington Management Quarterly Review (Emphasis Mine).
Too Much Debt
In highly indebted economies, additional debt triggers the law of diminishing returns. This fact is confirmed when the marginal revenue product of debt (MRP) falls, where MRP is the amount of GDP created by an additional dollar of debt. In microeconomics, when debt is already at extreme levels, a further increase in debt leads to an increase in the risk premium on which a borrower will default suggesting that the bank or other lender will not be repaid.
Combining both the falling MRP with a declining loan to deposit (LD) ratio, results in a reduction in the velocity of money. In terms of the impact on monetary activities, a drop in the LD ratio means that more of bank deposits are being directed to the purchase of Federal, Agency and state and local securities in lieu of private sector loans. The macroeconomic result is that funds are shifted to sectors that are the least productive engines of economic growth and away from the high multiplier ones.
More than thirty years ago, Stanford Ph.D. Rod McKnew demonstrated that the money multiplier, referred to as “m”, is higher for bank loans than bank investments in securities. The money multiplier, which is money stock (M2) divided by the monetary base should not be confused with the velocity of money. The latest trends strongly support McKnew’s analysis.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Still More Green Hypocrisy In the EU, This Time Hydrogen
Still More Green Hypocrisy In the EU, This Time Hydrogen
Hooray More Green Energy!
The EU is cheering a new hydrogen project at a refinery in Germany.
The plant will be built by Shell and ITM power and will be able to produce about 1,300 tonnes of hydrogen per year, which can be fully integrated into the refinery processes, such as for the desulphurisation of conventional fuels. It will be the world’s largest hydrogen electrolyser.
Tudor Constantinescu, Principal Advisor, DG ENER at the European Commission stressed the the contribution of green hydrogen to the Energy Union objectives, saying: “Renewable electricity can support decarbonisation not only of the power sector, but, through sectoral integration also of other carbon intensive industries, such as refining. Green Hydrogen is a key enabler in this process, contributing to the Energy Union objectives both in terms of emissions reductions and increased renewables share.“
Ten Times the Hydrogen, Ten Times the Cost?
Euractive has some interesting details of the undertaking, allegedly Set to Multiply Capacity tenfold by 2024.
The 10 MW electrolyser, while already Europe’s largest of its kind, is a pilot project for grander ambitions.
If the pilot works out well, the partnership around Shell wants to add another 100 MW of electrolysis capacity which would complete construction in 2024. That would then be the largest electrolyser in the world.
Yet the pilot project depended on financing by the FCH JU at a 50% rate, meaning that the business case for a project ten times larger without public funding would be questionable at best.
Whether those ambitions come to fruition will therefore depend on the carbon price and the amount of additional funding available, which could come from either the EU or Germany.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Swiss Reject Climate Change With Zoomers and Millennials Leading the Way
Swiss Reject Climate Change With Zoomers and Millennials Leading the Way
Swiss Reject Climate Change
Eurointelligence reports Swiss Reject Climate Change
After Switzerland dropped its negotiations with the EU, the country has now rejected a climate-protection law in a referendum. Concretely, they rejected all three parts of the law in separate votes: on CO2, on pesticides, and on drinking water.
We agree with the Swiss journalist Mathieu von Rohr that this failure is not merely important in its own right, but symptomatic for the difficulties facing Green politics in general. It is one thing for people to pretend they support the Green party, especially when it is cool to do so. It is quite another to make actual sacrifices as the Swiss were asked to do.
But what is particularly interesting about this referendum is that the strongest opposition came from young people. 60-70% of the 18-34 year old voted No in the three categories.
Each country is different, but the big yet unanswered question is whether people elsewhere would agree to make personal sacrifices for the greater good. The Swiss referendum tells us we should not take this for granted. The German elections will be the next big test.
Huge Shock
The referendum Failed 51-49. And it took a crushing rejection by Zoomers and millennials to do it.
The BBC comments on the Huge Shock.
A referendum saw voters narrowly reject the government’s plans for a car fuel levy and a tax on air tickets.
The measures were designed to help Switzerland meet targets under the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Opponents also pointed out that Switzerland is responsible for only 0.1% of global emissions, and expressed doubts that such policies would help the environment.
The vote, under Switzerland’s system of direct democracy, went 51% against, 49% in favour.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
A World that Operates by Financial Cheating and Unsound Money Is Doomed
Please consider A World that Operates by Cheating Is Doomed
In ages past, gold and silver provided humanity with a system of economic co-operation among productive humans, which was fair to all participants.
With gold and silver, humans were trading value-for-value: what changed hands were amounts of physical gold or silver, or at least, Bills which were unquestioned claims upon gold or silver.
When the exchange had taken place, everyone was happy! The seller because he had gold or silver, in exchange for the goods or services he offered; and the buyer was pleased because he had the goods or services he wanted, and he got them by tendering gold or silver in exchange.
So, everyone was pleased: the buyer because he got the goods or services he wanted, in exchange for his gold or silver; and the seller was pleased because he traded the goods or services he had to offer, tor gold or silver.
Under the present monetary system, there can be no justice or “fair trading”, because all the World’s MONEY IS FAKE MONEY. No money in today’s world is gold or silver, nor does it represent an unquestioned claim upon a stated amount of gold or silver.
And a gigantic shooting war will mark the end of our times, as a result of the cheating involved – all because fake money was forced upon humanity.
No Consequences, Yet
Except in isolated hyperinflation cases, governments have learned there are no consequences to the ruling class (at least yet) for unsound money.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Fed’s New Paradigm Adds Helium to the Stock Bubble
It has been an odd year with the Covid-19 crisis hammering the economy, but stocks recovering from sharp losses and then powering to new highs. As a result, standard measures show valuations are at rarely-seen levels that have typically ended in tears.
The S&P 500 trades at 22 times analysts’ expected earnings—its most expensive level since the dot-com bubble. It also trades at its richest multiple to its inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade—the valuation method popularized by economist Robert Shiller —in nearly 20 years. The total value of U.S. stocks as a percentage of the U.S. economy, which Warren Buffett once called “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” is now higher than at any point during the dot-com years.
Stocks vs Interest Rates
Some suggest stocks may not be as expensive as they seem because that interest rates are extremely low.
John Hussman has pointed out the fallacy of that theory many times. The Journal explains the fallacy this way.
The 10-year Treasury largely reflects investor expectations of what the overnight rates set by the Fed will average over the next decade. The Fed responds to what is going on with the economy, setting rates higher when it is trying to cool things down, lower when it is trying to heat things up. So low yields are tantamount to a low-growth, low-inflation economy—one in which profit growth would be low, too. Why pay up for stocks under that scenario?
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
New Covid Mutation Is ‘Out of Control’ in the UK
U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock warns a new strain of the coronavirus is “Out of Control”.
More than 16 million Britons are now required to stay at home after a lockdown came into force Sunday in London and southeast England and the government scrapped plans to relax rules on socializing at Christmas.
The measures to control the fast-spreading new variant of the virus forbid household mixing in those areas and restrict socializing to just Christmas Day across the rest of England. Residents across the country were told to keep to their local areas, and extra police were being deployed at rail stations to stop people traveling out of London.
“Cases have absolutely rocketed, so we’ve got a long way to go,” Hancock told Sky News. “I think it will be very difficult to keep it under control until the vaccine has rolled out.” People in the new Tier 4 areas “should behave as though they have it,” he said.
Race to Block the New Strain
In a race to block the new Covid-19 strain, Countries Ban Travel From U.K.
Countries across Europe and beyond raced Sunday to stem a more-infectious strain of Covid-19 by banning travel from the U.K., following a British announcement Saturday that it is imposing fresh lockdowns.
Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Israel on Sunday were preparing to join the Netherlands and Belgium, which hours earlier had banned passenger air travel from the U.K., while other countries considered similar moves in an effort to prevent a worsening of the pandemic before Christmas.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Eurozone Economy Plunges Back Into a Severe Decline
IHS Markit reports PMI Signals Steep Downturn in November Amid COVID Lockdowns.
Key Findings
- Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index at 45.1 (50.0 in October). 6-month low.
- Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index at 41.3 (46.9 in October). 6-month low.
- Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Indexat 55.5 (58.4 in October). 4-month low.
- Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 53.6 (54.8 in October). 3-month low.
The flash IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI® slumped from 50.0 in October to 45.1 in November, its lowest since May. With the exceptions of the declines seen in the first two quarters of this year, the average PMI reading of 47.6 in the fourth quarter so far is the lowest since the closing quarter of 2012 (during the region’s debt crisis) and indicative of a steep decline in GDP.
The deteriorating performance was broad-based, albeit with the service sector hardest hit from virus containment measures. While manufacturing output growth merely slowed in November to the lowest since the start of the sector’s recovery back in July, attributable to a marked slowing in order book growth, service sector output fell for a third month running, with the rate of decline accelerating sharply to the fastest since May.
A near-stalling of manufacturing output growth was exacerbated by an increasingly severe drop in services activity, pushing the flash composite PMI down from 47.2 to 42.4
Employment meanwhile fell across the eurozone as a whole for a ninth consecutive month, with the rate of job losses holding steady on the post-pandemic low seen in October.
By country, employment rose in Germany for the first time since February, and France saw the lowest number of job losses since the pandemic struck. Job cuts deepened in the rest of the region as a whole, however, to the steepest since June.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Fed’s GDP and Unemployment Projections: Who Believes Them?
Please consider the Economic Projections of FOMC Participants under their individual assumptions of appropriate monetary policy, September 2020.
Fed’s GDP, Unemployment, PCE Inflation Projections
GDP Projection
The Fed believes GDP will only contract 3.7% in 2020 then rebound 4% in 2021, and 3% in 2022.
Do you believe this?
Unemployment Projection
The Fed believes the Unemployment Rate will be 7.6% in 2020, 5.5% in 2021, and 4.6% in 2022.
Do you believe this?
PCE Inflation Projection
The Fed believes Core Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation (excluding food and energy) will be 1.5% in 2020, 1.7% in 2021, and 1.8% in 2022.
Do you believe this?
GDP Poll
Unemployment Poll
PCE Poll
My Take
- GDP: I will take the under. Way under. Much of the rebound was due to $600 pandemic stimulus checks that expired on July 25. This will be a huge headwind going forward.
- Unemployment: I am leery of games with the participation rate and labor force but I will go with higher.
- PCE : This one is humorous. For months, the Fed has committed not only to 2% but letting inflation run hotter than expected for some time to make up for needed lost inflation. Yet the Fed admits it will not hit its targets until 2023. PCE inflation, as measured, is a joke. So perhaps the Fed is on target.
The Wonders of Free Money in Two Pictures
Lesson of the Day
Census Report on Advance Retail Sales
The Census report on Advance Retail Sales provides half of our “Lesson of the Day“.
Adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, July sales were $536.0 billion, an increase of 1.2 percent from the previous month, and 2.7 percent above July 2019.Total sales for the May 2020 through July 2020 period were down 0.2 percent from the same period a year ago.
The May 2020 to June 2020 percent change was revised from up 7.5 percent to up 8.4 percent. Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent from June 2020, and 5.8 percent above last year.
Nonstore retailers were up 24.7 percent from July 2019, while food and beverage stores were up 11.1 percent from last year.
Retail spending rose for the third straight month despite a rise in coronavirus infections with reopenings stalled.
Spike in Government Spending
The chart from Pew shows stimulus and deficits exceed that in the Great Recession.
Since March, government stimulus authorizations (not all spent yet) total at least $3 trillion. Another $2 trillion is on the deck when Democrats and Republicans agree to another package.
That is the second half of the Free Money Wonder.
The federal government has run deficits nearly every year since the Great Depression and consistently since fiscal 2002. Through the first 10 months of fiscal 2020, the government took in $2.82 trillion in revenue and spent $5.63 trillion, for a year-to-date deficit of just over $2.8 trillion, according to the Treasury Department’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service. Through the first 10 months of fiscal 2019, by comparison, the deficit stood at $866.8 billion.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
More Than Half of Business Closures are Permanent
More Than Half of Business Closures are Permanent
A Yelp study finds that 55% of business closures are closed for good.
Yelp reports Increased Consumer Interest in May correlates with more Covid outbreaks and closures in June and July.
Consumer Interest vs Outbreaks
Business Closures Fluctuate Across the Nation
- There were 140,000 total businesses closures on Yelp from March 1 to June 15. This increased to more than 147,000 total business closures on June 29 and then dropped again to just more than 132,500 total business closures as of July 10.
- In April, there were more than 175,000 business closures indicating that only 24% of businesses that were closed in April have reopened.
- Even as total closures fall, permanent closures increase with 72,842 businesses permanently closed, out of the 132,580 total closed businesses, an increase of 15,742 permanent closures since June 15.
- This also means that the percentage of permanent to temporary business closures is rising, with permanent closures now accounting for 55% of all closed businesses since March 1, an increase of 14% from June when we reported 41% of closures as permanent.
- Overall, permanent closures have steadily increased since the peak of the pandemic with minor spikes in March, followed by May and June.
Total Businesses Closures
States with the largest populations have the most closures.
Total Business Closures Per 1,000
On a metro level, Las Vegas, NV, is suffering from the highest rate of permanently closed businesses with 861 businesses permanently closed, as the city reacts to a decrease in tourism. Meanwhile, Los Angeles, CA, has the most closures with 11,342 total temporary and permanent business closures.
Restaurants Struggle
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
