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Is The Renewable Transition Harming The U.S. Economy?

Is The Renewable Transition Harming The U.S. Economy?

solar panels

Recent data from the 2017 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook suggests that sectors of America’s energy market are quickly shifting towards greener energy, while also dispelling the myth that such shifts will hurt the economy. Despite a GDP growth of 12 percent since 2007, America’s usage of energy has fallen by 3.6 percent. Analysts believe this to be indicative of a new stage of American history in which energy productivity is improving, while increasingly less energy is needed to sustain growth.

These movements are overlapped by dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, 2016 marked a 25-year low – emissions have dropped 12 percent since 2007. As part of the original Paris Agreement, the U.S. has pledged to reduce national greenhouse gasses by over 25 percent by 2025 – these new numbers mean we are nearly halfway there.

These numbers are supplemented by the fact that consumers spent less than 4 percent of their annual household income on energy. This is the smallest estimate ever collected in America. Further, retail rates for electricity have fallen nationally by 3 percent. But in some regions, Texas for example, retail prices have fallen by as much as 29 percent. Moreover, since its peak in 2014, demand for electricity has fallen 1.2 percent. During the same period of time, GDP has grown 4.2 percent.

These numbers seem to contradict the widely-held belief that if America shifts away from carbon-based energy, we will either face economic deceleration, or radical price increases.

Further details concerning 2016 show that renewable energy sources have also spiked. Last year, the U.S. created 22 gigawatts of new renewable-energy-generating capacity. 12.5 of these gigawatts were generated from the solar industry. The wind industry contributed 8.5 gigawatts, and the remainder was comprised of additions from hydropower, biomass, biogas and waste-to-energy.

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Is The End In Sight For Alaska’s Oil Based Economy?

Is The End In Sight For Alaska’s Oil Based Economy?

Alaska Rig

Alaska has long been one of the few U.S. states without an income tax. Thanks to its incredible bounty of natural resources, the state had more than enough cash coming in through oil company taxes and especially Prudhoe Bay production. All of that is starting to change. After a 40 year oil boom that transformed Alaska from a frozen tundra into one of the richest states in the country, the oil price crash is bringing reality back to bear.

Alaska’s problems go deeper than the current oil price collapse though. Simply put, the state is getting long in the tooth – at least as far as its productive assets go. The Prudhoe Bay Oil field, once the largest such field in North America, is starting to reach the end of its life. In 1985, the Prudhoe Bay field was pumping 2 million barrels per day – roughly a quarter of the total U.S. output. Today it is pumping 500,000 barrels a day. That’s leaving the 800 mile Trans-Alaska pipeline seriously under-utilized.

Roughly 90 percent of Alaska’s general fund revenues are tied to oil. Between the oil price collapse and the inexorable decline of oil production over time, Alaska now faces a $4B budget deficit, all while the state has slid into an oil related recession over the last year. With the State’s rainy day fund burning through $11 million per day, that energy fund will be exhausted in less than two years.

All of this is a new challenge for Alaska and its roughly three-quarters of a million residents. Alaska has traditionally lightly yoked its residents with the lowest tax burden of any state across the country. In contrast, it has also had the highest per capita spending in the country thanks to its vast swath of territory. Both facets of this social compact may have to change.

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European Natural Gas Prices Collapse, as US Exporters Try to Muscle in on Russia, Norway, Qatar

European Natural Gas Prices Collapse, as US Exporters Try to Muscle in on Russia, Norway, Qatar

US LNG exporters against the low-cost producers

Oil and natural gas producers cannot catch a break of late it seems. A few years after the onset of the natural gas glut, Europe is experiencing a similar phenomenon with Russia and Norway using tactics akin to those used by the Saudis with oil.

The result is rock bottom prices on natural gas that are benefiting utility companies across the continent. The effective result of these actions is also hitting LNG terminal development economics in the U.S. and minimizing growth of imports from Qatar.

In a remarkable development, gas in the UK has fallen 37 percent in the last year just as Cheniere Energy has started offering exports of U.S. LNG to Europe. While Russia and Norway both deny specifically targeting market share through their business approach, it is clear that national firms in both countries are low cost producers that are proving to be the last men standing as prices continue to tumble.

Neither country’s producers need to take specific actions to drive market share – all they have to do is be willing to sell at the market’s defined prices and as those prices fall, natural volume declines from other producers leads to increased share.

While there are still geopolitical reasons to avoid buying Russian gas, increasingly European firms are finding themselves choosing between a more expensive but politically palatable supplier in the form of the U.S., and the cheaper Russian suppliers. This dichotomy is becoming increasingly untenable for many buyers who would otherwise prefer to buy from the U.S.

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Why Are Bankrupt Oil Companies Still Pumping?

Why Are Bankrupt Oil Companies Still Pumping?

As oil prices have declined, the number of bankruptcies and distressed oil majors has quickly risen into the dozens. In fact, a recent Reuters analysis suggests little effect on production from when companies enter bankruptcy. Reuters cited Magnum Hunter as a primary example of this reality.

While Magnum Hunter filed for bankruptcy in December 2014, the firm has scrambled even in Chapter 11 to keep its oil flowing, resulting in O&G production rising by roughly one-third between mid-2014 and late 2015. The firm has used the protection bankruptcy courts to help stave off creditors while keeping the pumps flowing full tilt. Nearly all of Magnum Hunter’s 3000 wells are still producing crude, and that makes sense for several reasons.

First, daily costs for operating wells remain well below current spot prices. While drilling new wells is not economical, it is perfectly logical to keep exploiting existing wells. Fracked wells usually start to see a significant decline in production after about two years of operations. So eventually Magnum Hunter and other companies will see their production fall, but two years can be a very long time to pump.

Second, creditors want to extract maximum value from the company and the best way to do that in the current environment is to keep the oil flowing.

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More Oil and Gas Bankruptcies Are Assured

More Oil and Gas Bankruptcies Are Assured

2015 was a terrible year for energy investors, but many investors and even corporate officers may be deluding themselves in believing that if they simply hold on, the good times will return.

The reality is that for many oil companies, the future is already written. In the last major oil bust of the 1980’s, a little more than a quarter of oil companies went out of business. The same thing is likely to happen again this time. And that means that investors and executives at oil companies showing the most signs of stress need to begin being realistic with themselves – some companies are already too far gone to save even if oil prices have finally bottomed.

In 2015, 42 oil companies filed for bankruptcy. This year will likely be even worse. In December of 2015, 11 percent of E&P companies defaulted on debts coming due versus just 0.5 percent in the same period a year earlier.

Related: OPEC Economies On Their Last Legs

Again, 2016 will be much worse. The problem is that even if oil prices start to rebound at this point, oil companies are still holding large amounts of debt. That debt will come due, and when it does, companies will only have two choices – pay it off in full or roll the debt over. These are the typical two choices that firms face of course, but normally rolling bonds over is straightforward.

At this stage though, most oil companies are likely to find it nearly impossible to sell new bonds in order to retire the bonds coming due. With company’s holding far too little cash to pay off their existing obligations, the only choice will be a bankruptcy filing.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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