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Gold’s Record Price Is All About Currency Debasement

Gold’s Record Price Is All About Currency Debasement

Gold broke its all-time price record on Monday and held above that level throughout the day.

So, what is this telling us?

It’s easier to understand gold’s record-breaking move up if you look at it from the other side of the equation. The dollar is now at its all-time low compared to gold.

In simple terms, the dollar is losing value.

This is a direct result of US government borrowing and spending backed by Federal Reserve money printing.

TD Securities reiterated that dollar debasement is driving gold in a note.

The USD weakens amid massive fiscal and central bank stimulus, a bloating debt pile and a slow growth environment.”

Since the economy crashed thanks to the governments’ shutdowns in response to the coronavirus, the federal government has borrowed trillions of dollars for its stimulus program. The June budget deficit was bigger than all but five of the yearly deficits in history. Meanwhile, the Fed is monetizing a big chunk of that debt through its government bond purchase program. In effect, it is buying up US debt and paying for it with money printed out of thin air.

All of this money creation is inflation. The rising price of gold reflects the inflationary pressure.

As more dollars go into circulation, each individual dollar is worth less, all other things equal. That’s why the price of gold is going up in dollar terms. We have more dollars chasing roughly the same amount of gold. That means it takes more dollars to buy an ounce.

This isn’t mere speculation. Money supply growth hit a new all-time high for the third month in a row in June. The only time we’ve seen money supply growth anywhere near this level was during the inflationary years of the 1970s. In June, year-over-year growth in the money supply came in at 34.5%. That was up from 29.5% in May.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

We’re Not Going Back to Normal

We’re Not Going Back to Normal

Turn the key and the economy will restart.

That’s a myth a lot of people in the mainstream have peddled since governments started shutting down the economy in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

That’s not going to happen. We’re not going back to normal.

In fact, things weren’t “normal” before the pandemic.

As Peter Schiff has been saying, too many mainstream pundits and prognosticators have focused exclusively on the pin and ignored the economic bubble that it popped. They argue that since the economic damage due to the COVID-19 shutdowns was self-inflicted, it’s not a real recession. It’s not a realeconomic collapse. It’s not that businesses are closing because the economy is bad. We just decided to shut them down. Therefore, we can just decide to open everything back up and everything will be fine. But as Schiff said, it’s not that simple.

What matters is that we got a wound. Look, if I grab a knife and I stab myself in the chest, I’m not OK because the wound is self-inflicted. … It doesn’t matter how I got stabbed. What matters is I have a knife in my chest and I’m bleeding. So, I can’t just ignore the wound because I was dumb enough to stab myself.”

I’ve been saying the same thing for weeks. The economy doesn’t stop and start on a dime. Just because Donald Trump snaps his fingers and says, “Go!” doesn’t mean that the crisis ends. The economic damage done to the economy by that knife is deep. In fact, the economy was already suffering from multiple knife wounds long before COVID-19 reared its ugly head.

It appears some people in the mainstream are starting to wake up to reality – sort of. Reuters recently ran an article headlined “With confidence shattered, the road to a ‘normal’ US economy looks long.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

You Will Sacrifice and It Will Hurt

You Will Sacrifice and It Will Hurt

Many people have likened the battle against coronavirus to a war and invoked imagery of the US fighting World War II. President Trump has even deemed himself a “wartime president.”

The president told reporters at a White House briefing that fighting the virus would require a sacrificial national effort just like it took to defeat the Axis in the Second World War.

Every generation of Americans has been called to make shared sacrifices for the good of the nation. To this day, nobody has ever seen like it, what they were able to do during World War II. Now it’s our time. We must sacrifice together, because we are all in this together, and we will come through together. It’s the invisible enemy. That’s always the toughest enemy, the invisible enemy.”

But listening to all the rhetoric coming from politicians and pundits, one has to ask, where exactly is the sacrifice?

The government is promising bailouts for everybody. We’re just weeks into the crisis and there is already an expectation that the government will be sending everybody checks. Peter Schiff called it “bailout nation.”

Apparently, the government wants “sacrifice” with no pain.

Unfortunately, that’s not a thing.

Americans didn’t get checks from the government in World War II. They got higher taxes. Schiff summed it up in a tweet.

During WWII middle-class Americas sacrificed to support the US government’s war effort. They paid much higher taxes, substantially reduced their consumption, and loaned their savings to the government. The people support the government. The government can’t support the people.”

Therein lies the ugly truth. There is no sacrifice without pain. The government can bail out the airlines. It can bail out the hotels. It can helicopter money in and drop it on your head. You’re still going to pay, either through higher taxes in the future or through inflation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: They’re Going to Need a Bigger Rate Cut!

Peter Schiff: They’re Going to Need a Bigger Rate Cut!

Stop and pause for a moment and think about what just happened. The Federal Reserve says the US economy is strong, but it just initiated emergency monetary policy last seen during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Something doesn’t add up.

The Fed cut rates 50 basis points on Tuesday. It was the first interest rate move between regularly schedule FMOC meetings since the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed funds rate now stands between 1.0 and 1.25%.

The decision to cut rates was unanimous.

As the Wall Street Journal pointed out, this kind of Federal Reserve move has been reserved for “when the economic outlook has quickly darkened, as in early 2001 and early 2008, when the US economy was heading into recession.” The 50-basis point cut was the first cut of such magnitude since December 2008. Pacific Management investment economist Tiffany Wilding called it a “shock-and-awe approach.”

It may have been shocking, but the results weren’t awesome.

Stocks tanked anyway.

The Dow Jones closed down 785.91 points, a 2.94% plunge. The S&P 500 fell 2.81%.  The Nasdaq experienced a similar drop, closing down 2.99%.

Meanwhile, gold rallied, quickly pushing back above $1,600 and gaining over $50. Wednesday morning, the yellow metal was knocking on the door of $1,650.

Bond yields sank again as investors continued their retreat into safe-havens. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped below 1%.

In a press conference after the announcement, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank “saw a risk to the economy and chose to act.”

“The magnitude and persistence of the overall effect on the US economy remain highly uncertain and the situation remains a fluid one. Against this background, the committee judged that the risks to the US outlook have changed materially. In response, we have eased the stance of monetary policy to provide some more support to the economy.”

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A Trend Worth Considering – The Price of Gold Since 1971

A Trend Worth Considering – The Price of Gold Since 1971

As we approach the end of 2019, gold is on track for a healthy yearly gain. To date, the yellow metal is up over 16% on the year.

It’s always interesting talking about gains in the price of gold because when you get down to it, it all depends on when you got into the market. If you bought an ounce of gold on Jan. 1 of this year and sold it this morning, you’d have pocketed around $208 (less any taxes and fees). But if you bought your gold at the peak price this year and sold it this morning, you’d be out about $68.

So, when we say gold is up or down, you always have to ask a second question: since when? The price can be simultaneously up and down at the same moment depending on the answer to that question.

I occasionally get comments on articles posted on the SchiffGold Facebook page by people complaining that they’ve lost a lot of money in gold because they bought when the market was at its absolute peak in 2011 and the yellow metal nearly hit $1,900. I can certainly understand their frustration, but I don’t buy their argument that their experience proves gold is a bad investment. While eight years seems like a long time, it’s not in the big scheme of things.

As I said, where you begin when you talk about a trend is key. Plucking an arbitrary date out of thin air doesn’t necessarily tell us a whole lot. It’s important to begin at a key moment in history.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak Irony: Fed Paper Admits Fed Policy Can Lead to Economic Ruin

Peak Irony: Fed Paper Admits Fed Policy Can Lead to Economic Ruin

A paper  by Scott A. Wolla and Kaitlyn Frerking for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis warns that the Fed’s own policy could lead to “economic ruin.”

The paper titled “Making Sense of National Debt” explains the pros and cons of national borrowing in typical Keynesian fashion. In a nutshell, a little debt is a good thing, but too much debt can become a problem.

But in the process of explaining national debt, Wolla and Frerking stumble into an ugly truth — Federal Reserve money printing can destroy a country’s economy.

So, when does the national debt become a problem?

According to Wolla and Frerking, debt only becomes an issue when it outpaces GDP, or national income, as they call it. If debt grows at a faster rate than income, eventually the debt might become unsustainable.

They note that according to the GAO, the US national debt is on an unsustainable path.

The federal debt is projected to grow at a faster rate than GDP for the foreseeable future. A significant portion of the growth in projected debt is to fund social programs such as Medicare and Social Security. Using debt held by the public (instead of total public debt), the debt-to-GDP ratio averaged 46 percent from 1946 to 2018 but reached 77 percent by the end of 2018. It is projected to exceed 100 percent within 20 years.”

Note that the total public debt is even higher. Most analysts put the total debt to GDP ratio at around 105%.

As Wolla and Frerking point out, rising levels of debt elevate the risk of default. Normally, investors holding government bonds bear this risk. While governments never have to entirely pay off debt, there are debt levels that investors might perceive as unsustainable.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How the Fed Wrecks the Economy Over and Over Again

How the Fed Wrecks the Economy Over and Over Again

When people talk about the economy, they generally focus on government policies such as taxation and regulation. For instance, Republicans credit President Trump’s tax cuts for the seemingly booming economy and surging stock markets. Meanwhile, Democrats blame “deregulation” for the 2008 financial crisis. While government policies do have an impact on the direction of the economy, this analysis completely ignores the biggest player on the stage – the Federal Reserve.

You simply cannot grasp the economic big-picture without understanding how Federal Reserve monetary policy drives the boom-bust cycle. The effects of all other government policies work within the Fed’s monetary framework. Money-printing and interest rate manipulations fuel booms and the inevitable attempt to return to “normalcy” precipitates busts.

In simplest terms, easy money blows up bubbles. Bubbles pop and set off a crisis. Rinse. Wash. Repeat.

In practice, when the economy slows or enters into a recession, central banks like the Federal Reserve drive interest rates down and launch quantitative easing (QE) programs to “stimulate” the economy.

Low interest rates encourage borrowing and spending. The flood of cheap money suddenly available allows consumers to consume more – thus the stimulus. It also incentivizes corporations and government entities to borrow and spend. Coupled with quantitative easing, the central bank can pump billions of dollars of new money into the economy through this loose monetary policy.

In effect, QE is a fancy term for printing lots of money. The Fed doesn’t literally have a printing press in the basement of the Eccles Building running off dollar bills, but it generates the same practical effect. The Federal Reserve digitally creates money out of thin air and uses the new dollars to buy securities and government bonds, thereby putting “cash” directly into circulation. QE not only boosts the amount of money in the economy; it also has a secondary function.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Trump Administration on Track for $1 Trillion Budget Deficit This Year

Trump Administration on Track for $1 Trillion Budget Deficit This Year

The Trump administration is on track to post a 2019 fiscal year budget deficit of over $1 trillion. These are the kind of budget deficits we would expect to see during a deep recession, not an “economic boom.”

The government got off to a good start at achieving this illustrious achievement last month. According to the Treasury Department report, the deficit came in at $100.5 billion in October. That represents a 58 percent increase from the $63 billion deficit recorded in October 2017. Spending rose 18 percent year-on-year. Revenues only increased by 7 percent.The month-on-month increase was impacted by a quirk in the calendar. Total outlays were much higher this October compared to last year because Social Security payments for October 2017 went out in September due to Oct. 1 falling on the weekend. Nevertheless, we should have seen a decrease in this year’s September outlays compared to last year and that didn’t happen. The September 2018 deficit was significantly bigger (119.116) than September 2017 ($7.886 billion) even without the October Social Security payments falling in September this year. The bottom line is spending is going up year-over-year.

Spending last month continued the pace of the last fiscal year. The federal government ended 2018 with the largest budget deficit since 2012. Uncle Sam ended 2018 $779 billion in the red, adding to the ballooning national debt. The CBO forecast this year’s deficit will come in close to $1 trillion. The current Treasury Department estimate projects a total fiscal 2019 deficit over the $1 trillion mark, coming in at $1.085 trillion.

The national debt expanded by more than $1 trillion in fiscal 2018. It currently stands at over $21.7 trillion. According to data released by the Treasury Department, fiscal 2018 gave us the sixth-largest fiscal-year debt increase in the history of the United States. (If you’re wondering how the debt can grow by a larger number than the annual deficit, economist Mark Brandly explains here.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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