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One Monetary Policy Fits All – Part II
One Monetary Policy Fits All – Part II In Part one of this series, Our Currency The World’s Problem, we discuss the vital role the U.S. dollar plays in the global economy. With an understanding of the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, it’s time to discuss how the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy machinations influence […]
How Durable Is The Potemkin Economy?
How Durable Is The Potemkin Economy? “Increased borrowing must be matched by increased ability to repay. Otherwise, we aren’t expanding the economy – we’re merely puffing it up.” – Henry Alexander of Morgan Guaranty Trust The original Potemkin Village dates to the late 1700s. At that time, Russian Governor Grigory Aleksandrovich Potemkin constructed facades to hide […]
History Warns The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates More, Not Less
History Warns The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates More, Not Less History Warns The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates More, Not Less “Currently, the December 2019 Fed Funds futures contract implies that the Fed will reduce the Fed Funds rate by nearly 75 basis points (0.75%) by the end of the year. While 75 basis […]
What is the Federal Reserve Hiding From Us?
What is the Federal Reserve Hiding From Us? “The most inappropriate monetary policy that I’ve seen maybe in my lifetime.”- Paul Tudor Jones on the Federal Reserve via CNBC The Federal Reserve has three mandates per their Congressional charter. They are to effectively promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed […]
Two Pins Threatening Multiple Asset Bubbles
Two Pins Threatening Multiple Asset Bubbles “Powell Says Fed Policies “Absolutely” Don’t Add To Inequality” -Bloomberg May 2020 The headline above is but one of countless times Fed Chairman Powell and his colleagues confidently said their policies do not result in wealth or income inequality. Their political stature and use of complex economic lingo give […]
What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?
What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis? The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%. 10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%. The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%. Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since […]
Plus ça change: A French Lesson in Monetary Debauchery
Plus ça change: A French Lesson in Monetary Debauchery Fiscal policy shifted into turbo-charged, warp speed, overdrive early into the COVID related recession. To facilitate the borrowing binge, the Federal Reserve took unprecedented monetary actions. In 2020, the fiscal deficit (November 2019- October 2020) rose $3.1 trillion and was matched one for one with a […]
When It Becomes Serious You Have To Lie: Update On The Repo Fiasco
When It Becomes Serious You Have To Lie: Update On The Repo Fiasco Occasionally, problems reveal themselves gradually. A water stain on the ceiling is potentially evidence of a much larger problem. Painting over the stain will temporarily relieve the unsightly condition, but in time, the water stain will return. This is analogous to a […]
Black Monday – Can It Happen Again?
Black Monday – Can It Happen Again? The 1987 stock market crash, better known as Black Monday, was a statistical anomaly, often referred to as a Black Swan event. Unlike other market declines, investors seem to be under the false premise that the stock market in 1987 provided no warning of the impending crash. The […]
In The Fed We Trust – Part 1
In The Fed We Trust – Part 1 This article is the first part of a two-part article. Due to its length and importance, we split it to help readers’ better digest the information. The purpose of the article is to define money and currency and discuss their differences and risks. It is with this […]
UNLOCKED: The Curious Case of Rising Fuel Prices and Shrinking Inflation
UNLOCKED: The Curious Case of Rising Fuel Prices and Shrinking Inflation On Friday, April 26, 2019, the market was stunned with a much stronger than expected 3.2% rate of first-quarter economic growth. Wall Street expectations were clearly off the mark, ranging from 1.3-2.3%. The media took this as a sign the economy is roaring. To […]
The Fed’s Body Count
The Fed’s Body Count “The problem with the war (Vietnam), as it often is, are the metrics. It is a situation where if you can’t count what’s important, you make what you can count important. So, in this particular case what you could count was dead enemy bodies.” – James Willbanks, Army Advisor, General of […]
The Fed’s Mandate To Pick Your Pocket – The Real Price Of Inflation
The Fed’s Mandate To Pick Your Pocket – The Real Price Of Inflation “Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon.” – Milton Friedman This oft-cited quote from the renowned American economist Milton Friedman suggests something important about inflation. What he implies is that inflation is a function of money, but what exactly does that […]
Peak Hubris
Peak Hubris In the past month, two well-known and highly respected money managers have made confident assertions about the markets. Their comments would lead one to believe that the future path of the market in the coming months is known. Sadly, many investors put blind faith in the words of high-profile, accomplished professionals and do […]
Consumption Exhaustion
Consumption Exhaustion When people use the word catalyst to describe an event that may prick the stock market bubble, they usually discuss something singular, unexpected and potentially shocking. The term “black swan” is frequently invoked to describe such an event. In reality, while such an incident may turn the market around and be the “catalyst” […]
