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The Market Has Lost Faith In Our Board, Bank Of International Settlements Laments
The Market Has Lost Faith In Our Board, Bank Of International Settlements Laments
The BIS’ Claudio Borio was vindicated in January – and it was a long time coming.
When last we checked in with Claudio, it was December and the bank’s Head of the Monetary and Economic Department was busy explaining what may befall $3.2 trillion in EM USD debt in the persistently strong dollar environment. “The stock of dollar-denominated debt, which has roughly doubled since early 2009 to over $3 trillion, is still there [and] in fact, its value in domestic currency terms has grown in line with the US dollar’s appreciation, weighing on financial conditions and weakening balance sheets,” he warned.
We also laid out the progression of Borio’s most recent warnings as delineated in the banks’ widely-read, if on occasion perfunctory, quarterly reports. Below, is a brief review.
From 2014, warning about the market’s dependence on central bank omnipotence:
To my mind, these events underline the fragility – dare I say growing fragility? – hidden beneath the markets’ buoyancy. Small pieces of news can generate outsize effects. This, in turn, can amplify mood swings. And it would be imprudent to ignore that markets did not fully stabilise by themselves. Once again, on the heels of the turbulence, major central banks made soothing statements, suggesting that they might delay normalisation in light of evolving macroeconomic conditions. Recent events, if anything, have highlighted once more the degree to which markets are relying on central banks: the markets’ buoyancy hinges on central banks’ every word and deed.
From March of 2015, speaking out about the dangers of increasingly illiquid secondary markets for corporate bonds:
As a result, market liquidity may increasingly come to depend on the portfolio allocation decisions of only a few large institutions. And, more broadly, investors may find that liquidating positions proves more difficult than expected, particularly in the context of an adverse shift in market sentiment.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China Soars Most Since 2009 After Government Threatens Short Sellers With Arrest, Global Stocks Surge
China Soars Most Since 2009 After Government Threatens Short Sellers With Arrest, Global Stocks Surge
Here is a brief sample of some of the measures the Chinese government and the PBOC have unleashed in just the past ten days to prop up the crashing market include:
- a ban on major shareholders, corporate executives, directors from selling stock for 6 months
- freezing more than half (1400 at last count per Bloomberg) of the listed companies from trading,
- blocking fund redemptions, forcing companies to invest in the market,
- halting IPOs,
- reducing equity transaction fees,
- providing daily bailouts to the margin lending authority,
- reducing margin requirements,
- boosting buybacks
- endless propaganda by Beijing Bob.
The measures are summarized below.
But it wasn’t until last night’s first official threat to “malicious” (short) sellers that they face charges (i.e., arrest), as Xinhua reported yesterday:
[Ministry of Public Security in conjunction with the recent Commission investigation of malicious short stock and stock index clues ] correspondent was informed on the 9th morning , Vice Minister of Public Security Meng Qingfeng led to the Commission , in conjunction with the recent Commission investigation of malicious short stock and stock index clues show regulatory authorities to the operation of heavy combat illegal activities.
… that the wall of Chinese intervention finally worked. For now.
And since this is all about one thing, the stock, market, it is worth noting that the Shanghai Composite Index had dropped as much as 3.8% to a 4 month low before the news that the cops were going to arrest anyone who used a wrong discount rate in their DCF, when everything suddenly took off, and the SHCOMP closed a “Dramamine required” 5.8% higher, the biggest daily increase since March 2009!
“As China beefs up its efforts to rescue the market, with even the public security ministry involved, market sentiment is recovering slightly from a panicky stage earlier,” Shenyin Wanguo analyst Qian Qimin says by phone
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
