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Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top

August 1, 2020

Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top The self-sustaining recovery is a fantasy that’s evaporated. What looks like a powerful, can’t-lose rally to newbies is recognized as distribution by old hands. In low-volume markets (as in the past few months), insiders holding large positions can’t dump all their shares at once or […]

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Get Real

April 28, 2019

Get Real The final phase of a bull cycle is the most deceiving. It is the time when things are at their best, optimism runs wild, equities can do no wrong and any warning signs are dismissed as equity price action valiantly defies the reality that is to come. It is also a time when […]

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Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary?

January 7, 2019

Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary? It’s not yet clear that the stock market swoon is predictive or merely a panic attack triggered by a loss of meds. We contrarians can’t help it: when the herd is bullish, we start looking for a reversal. When the herd turns bearish, we […]

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Weekly Commentary: MBS and the Core

November 4, 2018

Weekly Commentary: MBS and the Core The Dow (DJIA) traded as low as 24,122 in late-Monday afternoon trading. By Friday’s open, the Dow had rallied 1,457 points, or 6.0%, to 25,579. Relatively speaking, the Dow was a tame kitten. From Monday’s intraday lows, the Nasdaq100 rallied as much at 7.8%. The Semiconductors won this week’s […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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