The story on Wall Street and CNBC continues to be that we’re in a correction and this is a buying opportunity. Even Warren Buffett joins the chorus of stock market cheerleaders for the skeptical public. Well, I agree with the skeptical public, not the experts here!
The bull market from early 2009 into May 2015 looks just like every bubble in history, and I’m getting one sign after the next that we did indeed peak last May. The dominant pattern in the stock market is the “rounded top” pattern:
After trading in a steep, bubble-like channel from late 2011 into late 2014, with only 10% maximum volatility top to bottom, the market finally lost its momentum… just as the Fed finished tapering its QE. That’s because the Fed was the primary driver in this stock bubble in the first place!
But the first sign that the bubble had indeed peaked was the break of that upward channel last August. Surprise, surprise! Without the Fed’s stimulus, stocks started to sputter out!
With that sign we can point to what now looks like a series of major tops, in one major index after the next, since late 2014:
- Dow Transports, November 2014.
- Dow Utilities, January 2015.
- The DAX in Germany and the FTSE in the UK: April, 2015.
- The Dow and S&P 500: May 2015.
- The Shanghai Composite: June 2015.
- The Nasdaq, Biotech and the Russell 2000: July 2015.
- And finally, the Nikkei in Japan: August 2015.
The Shanghai Index crashed 45% in 2.5 months, similar to the Dow in late 1929 on its first 2.5-month wave down. That one was so obvious that when I said it was about to burst, it peaked that day and rolled over the next!
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