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Get Real

Get Real

The final phase of a bull cycle is the most deceiving. It is the time when things are at their best, optimism runs wild, equities can do no wrong and any warning signs are dismissed as equity price action valiantly defies the reality that is to come.

It is also a time when complacency makes a comeback as big rallies emerge following initial larger corrections. 2018 was a year of big corrections. 10% in February, 20% in Q4. Now a 25% rally. Not signs of a stable bull market. It is precisely the aggressive counter rallies near the end of cycles that can be the most awe-inspiring and reason defying, yet they can also be the most dangerous while being the best opportunities to sell at the same time.

Let’s get real: The liquidity machine can hide reality only for so long and that is: Things keep slowing down. Cycles don’t turn on a dime, they take time and that is what we are seeing unfold and the signs are plentiful. From Japanese industrial production going negative the past 3 months to home sales in the Hamptons slowing to the slowest level in 7 years.  I’m using these couple rather random examples to illustrate a point: The slowdown is as broad as it global:

Oh yes, even Friday’s Q1 GDP report reeked of deceit and the headline is hiding theslowdown in plain sight:

“The economy isn’t doing nearly as well as that 3.2% annual growth rate for gross domestic product reported Friday by the Commerce Department.

The heart of the real economy — private-sector consumption and investment — slowed sharply in the first quarter to a 1.3% annual rate, the slowest growth in nearly six years.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Eric Peters: “If US Stocks Finally Crack, Most People Will Conclude We’re Headed Into Another Depression”

Hypothetical

“I was asked to lay out the case for the US being mid-cycle,” said my favorite strategist. “Residential housing is 4% of GDP now, that’s consistent with past recessionary levels. So perhaps it jumps to 8%,” he continued.

“Equipment and machinery spending is just 6% of GDP.” Pretty consistent with previous recessions. “So maybe both expand, and incomes rise.” Which leads to higher inflation and shrinking profit margins. “Then perhaps the Fed tolerates rising prices which means that nominal growth remains strong even if real growth rates slow,” he postulated.

“So in that case, workers do better, and companies are worse off on a relative basis. But in that 7% nominal GDP world, inflation might mask the pain well enough to allow stocks to sail through,” continued my favorite strategist.

“You think about that hypothetical and it’s possible,” he said. “But then you listen to what the companies are saying, and you walk away with the sense that there’s just no way.” Homebuilding stocks are -30% from the January highs.

“If you just look across the spectrum, interest-sensitive equities are screaming late-cycle.”

“Making the mid-cycle case raised my conviction that we’re late-cycle,” he said. “America’s fiscal boost masked the natural cycle dynamics.” The US is the outlier. In dollar terms, of the major markets, only American stocks are higher on the year.

So if US stocks catch up and crash from here, what happens next?” he asked rhetorically. “I think most people will conclude we’re headed into another depression. But I think there will be great things to buy. Probably in the places that are already crashing and burning.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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