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Historically, gold has proven to be a very safe investment – could it remain so in times of a massive global debt bubble, Brexit, trade wars and an uncertain world economy?

“You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold.”

The words of the witty Irish playwright and philosopher George Bernard Shaw, will resonate with investors in Ireland , the UK and internationally today given the UK government’s handling of Brexit and the rise of Trump and other radical politicians on the left and right.

Populist politicians are creating increasing political, economic and financial risks for us all. This is clearly seen in the complete mess that is Brexit – for Ireland, the UK and indeed the EU.

Shaw was a keen student of history and saw the economic problems that monarchies and governments have created over the years. Only the most foolhardy investor would claim that the coming years will be any different than our past.

Gold’s safe-haven historical status

A massive global debt bubble, Brexit, the risk of Italy leaving the EU, an increasingly fractured EU, aggressive Trump foreign and economic policies and an increasingly polarised and uncertain world cast shadows over our economies and financial markets.

There are very real risks posed by the gigantic global debt bubble – the world is nearing $250 trillion in debt and the global debt to GDP ratio has risen to 320%.

Shaw was also alluding to gold’s safe-haven status throughout history. Paper currency devaluations and indeed stock, bond and property market crashes are much more common throughout history than many people realise.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank Bail-In Risk In Europe Seen In 5 Charts

February 20, 2018

Bank Bail-In Risk In Europe Seen In 5 Charts

– Nearly €1 trillion in non-performing loans poses risks to European banks’
– Greece has highest non-performing loans as a share of total credit
– Italy has the biggest pile of bad debt in absolute terms
– Bad debt in Italy is still “a major problem” which has to be addressed – ECB
– Level of bad loans in Italy remains above that seen before the financial crisis
– Deposits in banks in Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Ireland, Czech Republic and Portugal most at risk from bank bail-in

As reported by Bloomberg this week in an important article entitled ‘Five Charts That Explain How European Banks Are Dealing With Their Bad-Loan Problem’:

For European banks, it’s a headache that just won’t go away: the 944 billion euros ($1.17 trillion) of non-performing loans that’s weighing down their balance sheets.

Economists say the pile of past-due and delinquent debt makes it harder for banks to lend more money, hurting their earnings. European authorities are prodding lenders to sell or wind down non-performing credit, but they’re split on how to tackle the issue, and some investors are disappointed by the pace of progress.

There are various ways of calculating soured loans. The European Central Bank advises that non-performing asset indicators should be interpreted with caution because the definition of impaired assets and loss provision differ between countries. The data used below refers to domestic banking groups and standalone banks only, and excludes foreign subsidiaries and controlled branches.

“The data for the Czech banking sector consist of the banks that represent only 6 percent of credit extended by the banks operating in the Czech Republic,” the central bank said by email.

Here are five charts (above and below) using the ECB data that help explain the non-performing loan issue and how banks are tackling it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Digital Gold Bitcoin Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars

January 18, 2018

Digital Gold Bitcoin Flight To Physical Gold Coins and Bars

‘Digital Gold’ Bitcoin Flight To Safe Haven Physical Gold

– Latest bitcoin, crypto crash causes gold coin and bar demand to surge
– Bitcoin down 40% from high, Ripple down 50% and Ethereum down 30%
– Ripple and ‘Digital gold’ Bitcoin fall past key psychological price levels
– $300bn wiped from cryptocurrency fortunes in just 36 hours
– New research says that there is ‘Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem’
– Savvy crypto buyers converted their short term gains into physical gold bars, coins
– Bitcoin and Ripple sellers bought gold both for delivery and storage from GoldCore
– Gold ETF holdings rise – Assets in iShares Gold soar to $10.7 b, highest in 5 years
– 95% of cryptocurrencies will go to zero …

30% to 50% price drops in a matter of days and the loss of $300 billion in value is quite a knock for a market that was not meant to be in a speculative bubble.

In just 36 hours the cryptocurrency market has managed to make a fair few people feel very nervous as they watched crypto currency prices fall very sharply.

The two most popular cryptocurrencies (as measured by market cap) saw the biggest losses over Tuesday and Wednesday, this week. Digital gold bitcoin dropped below it’s key psychological level of $10,000, whilst ether also made a drop below the all-important level of $1,000.

The crypto market has been on a tear for the last few months. We are frequently asked by people about bitcoin and whether or not they ‘should’ be getting into it.

Gold is the best way to secure value from crypto volatility

Unsurprisingly many cryptocurrency buyers or investors have been looking at how they can secure their gains. Since early December and continuing in recent days, we are seeing numerous existing and new clients who had seen massive gains in bitcoin, ripple etc diversifying into physical gold. They have been buying both gold coins and bars, for both delivery and storage.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Pensions and Debt Time Bomb In UK: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms

September 22, 2017

Pensions and Debt Time Bomb In UK: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms

There is a £1 trillion debt time bomb hanging over the United Kingdom. We are nearing the end of the timebomb’s long fuse and it looks set to explode in the coming months.

No one knows how to diffuse the £1 trillion bomb and who should be taking responsibility. It is made up of two major components.

£710 billion is the terrifying size of the UK pensions deficit
£200 billion is the amount of dynamite in the consumer credit time bomb

How did the sovereign nation that is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland get itself so deep in the red?

This is not a problem that is bore only by the Brits. In the rest of the developed world a $70 trillion pensions deficit hangs heavy.

We are all in this boat because we apparently didn’t learn from the massive man made crisis that was the 2008 financial crisis.

The ‘we’ is referring to UK individuals who are on average holding £14,367 of debt. It refers to the pension fund managers who are ignoring the fact they hold more liabilities than assets. It refers to banks and mortgage and loan providers who give loans to people who are already indebted and who will struggle to pay the debt back. It refers to a compliant media who do not have ask hard questions about irresponsible lending practices and cheer lead property bubbles due to getting significant revenues from the banking and property sectors.

And, ultimately the ‘we’ is the government who peddled such terrible monetary policy that it has brought us as close to nuclear financial disaster as we have been since 2008.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Financial Crisis” Coming By End Of 2018 – Prepare Urgently

July 14, 2017

“Financial Crisis” Coming By End Of 2018 – Prepare Urgently

“Financial Crisis Of Historic Proportions” Is “Bearing Down On Us”

John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics latest research note, Prepare for Turbulence, is excellent and a must read warning about the coming financial crisis. Mind refreshed from what sounds like a wonderful honeymoon and having had the time to read some books outside his “comfort zone” he has come to the conclusion that we are on the verge of a “major financial crisis, if not later this year, then by the end of 2018 at the latest.”

Source: Financial Times

Mauldin is a New York Times bestselling author and respected investment expert and his excellent analysis concludes with advice to prepare urgently for the financial “crisis of historic proportions” which is “once again bearing down on us”:

“You and I can’t control whether banks are ready, but we can control whether we are ready. I am working on a number of fronts to help you. My brief time away convinced me beyond any doubt that a crisis of historic proportions is once again bearing down on us. We may have little time to prepare. We definitely have no time to waste.“

His financial crisis warning is important as Mauldin is no perma-bear. Indeed up until now his central thesis was that we were in the “muddle through economy” and that the U.S. economy and global economy would “muddle” along and we would avoid a financial crisis. So not only has he changed his central thesis but he has gone from being neutral and mildly positive to being very bearish and concerned about a severe financial crisis.

Mauldin is a long time advocate of owning physical gold including gold coins as financial insurance – taking delivery and secure storage.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Shrinkflation In Ireland – Real Inflation Much Higher Than Reported

June 28, 2017

Shrinkflation In Ireland – Real Inflation Much Higher Than Reported

Shrinkflation – Real inflation much higher than reported and realised
Shrinkflation is taking hold in consumer sector
Important consumer, financial, monetary and economic issue being largely ignored by financial analysts, financial advisers, economists, central banks and the media.
Food becoming more expensive as consumers get less for price paid
A form of stealth inflation, few can avoid it
Brexit is the scapegoat for shrinkflation by the media and companies
Consumers blame retailers rather than central banks
Gold hedge has doubled in value since 2007

Editor: Mark O’Byrne

Shrinkflation: no one left untouched

600 new words entered our official lexicon this week as the Oxford English Dictionary announced the latest new additions to their online records.

One of the words reportedly up for consideration was shrinkflation. It did not make the final cut and as a result continues to be defined by the authority as ‘a portmanteau, made from combining shrink: ‘to become or make smaller in size’, with the economic sense of inflation: ‘a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money’.

In order for a word to be accepted into the OED it must have been in use for at least five years. But the latest list suggests that this isn’t the case and exceptions can be made. The inclusion of ‘superbrat’, a word which is usually associated with the behaviour of John McEnroe in the 1970s, actually dates back to the the 1950s.

Yet, shrinkflation continues to elude the world’s authority on the English language. This seems bizarre to us given both the word and the phenomenon and something consumers have been experiencing for a number of years.

Although it is understandable in the context of an important consumer, financial and economic issue which is being largely ignored by financial analysts, financial advisers, economists and the media.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Pension Crisis In U.S. and Globally Is Unavoidable

April 10, 2017

Pension Crisis In U.S. and Globally Is Unavoidable

Pension Crisis In U.S. and Globally Is Unavoidable

There is a really big crisis coming.

Think about it this way. After 8 years and a 230% stock market advance the pension funds of Dallas, Chicago, and Houston are in severe trouble.

But it isn’t just these municipalities that are in trouble, but also most of the public and private pensions that still operate in the country today.

Currently, many pension funds, like the one in Houston, are scrambling to slightly lower return rates, issue debt, raise taxes or increase contribution limits to fill some of the gaping holes of underfunded liabilities in their plans. The hope is such measures combined with an ongoing bull market, and increased participant contributions, will heal the plans in the future.

This is not likely to be the case.

This problem is not something born of the last “financial crisis,” but rather the culmination of 20-plus years of financial mismanagement.

An April 2016 Moody’s analysis pegged the total 75-year unfunded liability for all state and local pension plans at $3.5 trillion.

That’s the amount not covered by current fund assets, future expected contributions, and investment returns at assumed rates ranging from 3.7% to 4.1%. Another calculation from the American Enterprise Institute comes up with $5.2 trillion, presuming that long-term bond yields average 2.6%.

With employee contribution requirements extremely low, averaging about 15% of payroll, the need to stretch for higher rates of return have put pensions in a precarious position and increases the underfunded status of pensions.

With pension funds already wrestling with largely underfunded liabilities, the shifting demographics are further complicating funding problems.

One of the primary problems continues to be the decline in the ratio of workers per retiree as retirees are living longer (increasing the relative number of retirees), and lower birth rates (decreasing the relative number of workers.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Cashless Society – Risks Posed By The War On Cash

October 23, 2016

Cashless Society – Risks Posed By The War On Cash

Cash is the new “barbarous relic” according to many central banks, regulators, and some economists and there is a strong, concerted push for the ‘cashless society’.

cashless_society

Developments in recent days and weeks have highlighted the risks posed by the war on cash and the cashless society.

The Presidential campaign has been dominated for months and again this week by the power of information that has been gathered through unconventional means – whether due to email hacks, leaked microphone tapes or even late-night twitter rants.

Both presidential candidates have got things to say when it comes to the gathering of information and both are for it. Hillary Clinton sees a thin line between national security and your personal privacy. Donald Trump has openly said that he is open to mass surveillance and as he puts it, putting the country before personal liberty.

Neither candidate is afraid to say that they support information snooping and gathering for the sake of national security. In the ‘punch and judy’ show that has been the U.S. election, important financial and economic matters have been eschewed in favour of salacious allegations regarding alleged sexual advances etc.

Access to your information is one thing, it is how it is read and what is done with it that is pertinent. In a cashless society information replaces cash. How that information is interpreted is entirely subjective and the chances of any recourse when someone has misread your cash transaction seem to be increasingly slim.

Trump_&_Clinton

This information gives more power to unaccountable banks and corporations. It removes power and liberty from individuals and small to medium enterprises.

Opinion is divided among economists and there are many economists who share our concerns about the risks of the cashless society.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank Bail Ins Begin as EU Bank “Bailed In” In Austria

April 11, 2016

Bank Bail Ins Begin as EU Bank “Bailed In” In Austria

Bank bail ins in the EU are here after Austria’s financial markets regulator FMA imposed a hefty haircut on creditors in an Austrian bank. Creditors in the bank Heta Asset Resolution will receive less than half of their money back according to the country’s financial regulator, the FMA.

Senior bondholders in the so called “bad bank” could expect to receive around €0.46 for each euro which would be paid from the realisation of assets by 2020, according to the FMA statement. It said that this had been calculated using “very conservative” assumptions.

“This package of measures also ensures the equal treatment of creditors. Orderly resolution is more advantageous than insolvency proceedings,” the FMA said.

Bond maturities, however, will be extended to 31 December 2023 as “all currently outstanding legal disputes will realistically only be concluded by the end of 2023”. “Only at that point will it be possible to finally distribute the assets and to liquidate the company,” the regulator said.

In November 2015, the largest collection of creditors, which included Pacific Investment Management Co (PIMCO), Commerzbank , FMS Wertmanagement AoeR and a collection of distressed debt investors, proposed to extend bond maturities for 30 years in return for repayment in full.

Representatives of Austrian province Carinthia and creditors of the failed regional lender are to meet in London tomorrow to try to break the impasse over a bond buyback scheme, an Austrian newspaper reported. Carinthia, a southern Austrian province, guaranteed the debt of local lender Hypo Alpe Adria before the bank collapsed and now faces the threat of insolvency if it had to honour the 10.8 billion euro ($12.3 billion) debt in full.

Heta Asset Resolution was formed to wind down the bank but regulators froze Heta’s debt repayments after discovering a gaping capital hole at the bad bank.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Mutual Funds, ETFs at Risk of a Run Warns Stockman

February 13, 2016

Mutual Funds, ETFs at Risk of a Run Warns Stockman

In one of his starkest warnings yet, Former White House Budget Director (Office of Management and Budget, OMB), David Stockman has warned that banks and the global financial system remain vulnerable and there is likely to be another global financial crisis which will be worse than the first involving “a run on mutual funds and ETFs.”

Stockman warns in a Bloomberg interview that Deutsche Bank

“has a $2 trillion balance sheet and they have a net tangible equity of $66 billion. So that is 3% – “they are leveraged 30 to 1 in terms of net tangible equity.”

“What is whirling around in that $2 trillion nobody knows but I do think that the banks have unloaded the worst of their stuff and today it is in mutual funds and ETFs, today it is in non bank financial institutions, like all these companies that have come up over night to make auto loans by selling junk bonds as a form of capital.”

This is reminiscent of the first financial crisis and the financial collapse wrought on the world with the subprime mortgage fraud as beautifully illustrated in the must see movie ‘The Big Short’.

Regarding how ‘mom and pop’ investors and pension owners are vulnerable, Stockman says

“The dangers of a run are far more serious now than it was with banks then. Back then, main street banks did not have to mark to market most of their assets and there never was a run on mainstreet banks, it was only on a few hedge funds …

This time you are going to have a run of $5 trillion or $6 trillion of mutual funds. This time you are going to have a run on the ETFs. There were only $1 trillion of ETFs in existence in 2008. There is over $3 trillion now and they are an accelerator mechanism.“

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Brave New World of Bank Bail-Ins As Of January 1st

January 5, 2016

Brave New World of Bank Bail-Ins As Of January 1st

On January 1st, 2016, the new bail-in regime became law putting at risk the deposits of savers and companies in the EU.

EU countries join the UK, the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand in having plans for bail-ins in the event of banks and other large financial institutions getting into difficulty. It is now the case that in the event of bank failure, personal and corporate deposits could be confiscated.

The bail-in architecture was seen in the Cyprus bank bail-ins that were seen in 2003. Then, deposits of over €100,000 were confiscated in “haircuts” in order to bail out banks in Cyprus. Now the exact same principles that were used in Cyprus – which we were told was unique and a one off – are going to apply to all of Europe.

Bail-ins and the risks they pose have largely been ignored in most of the media. In one of the very few articles on bail-ins in recent days, Hugh Dixon of Reuters Breaking Views has looked at bail-ins but has focused on the “political risks” rather than that posed to savers and indeed company depositors:

The European Union entered a brave new world of bank “bail-ins” at the start of 2016. Europe has wasted so much taxpayers’ money on bailing out bust banks in recent years that it is right to try to get investors to help foot the bills in future. However, the tough new regime carries big political risks.

The article, ‘EU enters brave new world of bank bail-ins’, is interesting despite ignoring the financial and economic risk of bail-ins – they would likely be very deflationary in a world already beset by deflation – and can be accessed here
Download Our Must Read Bail-In Guides Here:

Protecting Your Savings In The Coming Bail-In Era

From Bail-Outs To Bail-Ins: Risks and Ramifications

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