Ten years ago Kevin J. Surace delivered a fascinating TED talk entitled “Worst Case Climate Change.”
Based upon credits at the end of his speech, data for his talk came from the following sources:
– Fred Pearce, With Speed and Violence: Why Scientists Fear
– Tipping Points in Climate Change (Beacon Press, 2007)
– John D. Cox, Climate Crash Abrupt Climate Change and What It
– Means for Our Future (John Henry Press imprint of the National Academies Press, 2005)
– Reviewed by Dr. Anthony Strawa atmospheric scientists, NASA.
Mr. Surace’s brilliant summation Worst Case Climate Change, as of 2008, was done for purposes: (1) exposure, (2) making the issue controversial, and (3) to make people think about the prospects. He did not intend to suggest the worst case would happen, rather encouraging people to learn more and act accordingly.
Ten years later, how does Surace’s TED talk hold up?
Unfortunately explained herein his “Worst Case” scenario hasn’t missed a beat, and maybe worse than expected. Sorrowfully, head held downward, his thesis holds up!
Still, there’s a hidden trick found within this subject matter. Worst Case Climate Change consists of negative changes not seen in everyday life, other than climate scientists, and therefore it is difficult, if not impossible, for ordinary people to understand the gravity of this situation. After all, who lives in Antarctica or the Arctic or in the ocean? Nobody. Meantime, by the time the brutal aftereffects become evident, it’s already “lights out!”
Surace’s approach to the subject utilized Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data for comparison/contrasting purposes. As referenced therein, more or less, the IPCC used a linear or straight-line methodology. However, by way of contrast, in the real world “discontinuities” (non-linear) are common throughout climate history and throughout nature, thus suggesting the IPCC model too conservative in approach and in conclusion.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
