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Risks to the Global Economy in 2019
Adam Gault/Getty Image Risks to the Global Economy in 2019 Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo […]
Central Bankers’ Fiscal Constraints
Sirinarth Mekvorawuth/EyeEm/Getty Images Central Bankers’ Fiscal Constraints With policy interest rates near zero in most advanced economies (and just above 2% even in the fast-growing US), there is little room for monetary policy to maneuver in a recession without considerable creativity. But those who think fiscal policy alone will save the day are stupefyingly naive. […]
The War Against Cash
The War Against Cash Where every keystroke becomes part of one’s permanent record, where e-devices track one’s every move, the ability to pay physical cash for a financial transaction may have become the only off-the-record action one can execute, unless, of course, it’s recorded on one of the ubiquitous security cams. But signs are everywhere […]
A Chinese recession is inevitable – don’t think it won’t affect you
A Chinese recession is inevitable – don’t think it won’t affect you A man sits on a rock near demolished in Xiancun, an urban village in Guangzhou, southern China. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images When China finally has its inevitable growth recession – which will almost surely be amplified by a financial crisis, given the economy’s […]
Will China Really Supplant US Economic Hegemony?
STR/AFP/Getty Images Will China Really Supplant US Economic Hegemony? As artificial intelligence reshapes the global economy, economists who once argued that China’s massive population would propel it to superpower status should rethink that assumption. In fact, as the global economy reaches higher stages of development, China’s labor advantage today could become a handicap tomorrow. […]
Economists vs. Scientists on Long-Term Growth
Yegor Aleyev\TASS via Getty Images Economists vs. Scientists on Long-Term Growth Artificial intelligence researchers and conventional economists may have very different views about the impact of new technologies. But right now, and forgetting the possibility of an existential battle between man and machine, it seems quite plausible to expect a significant pickup in productivity growth […]
The $200 Trillion Question
The $200 Trillion Question Perhaps the most remarkable trend in global macroeconomics over the past two decades has been the stunning drop in the volatility of economic growth. In the United States, for example, quarterly output volatility has fallen by more than half since the mid-1980’s. Obviously, moderation in output movements did not occur everywhere […]
For God’s Sake, Stop!
FOR GOD’S SAKE, STOP! “Most economists, it seems, believe strongly in their own superior intelligence and take themselves far too seriously. In his open letter of 22 July 2001 to Joseph Stiglitz, Kenneth Rogoff identified this problem. ‘One of my favourite stories from that era is a lunch with you and our former colleague, Carl […]
Deaf blind
DEAFBLIND “Most economists, it seems, believe strongly in their own superior intelligence and take themselves far too seriously. In his open letter of 22 July 2001 to Joseph Stiglitz, Kenneth Rogoff identified this problem. ‘One of my favourite stories from that era is a lunch with you and our former colleague Carl Shapiro, at which […]
Rogoff Tells Central Banks More Negative Interest Rates Will Be Needed
Rogoff Tells Central Banks More Negative Interest Rates Will Be Needed Kenneth Rogoff, the Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is stuck in a time warp where he cannot think out of the box even once. He is telling the central banks that the next recession they will have to resort to negative interest rates and […]
Ken Rogoff’s Government Debt Default Plan
Ken Rogoff’s Government Debt Default Plan Ken Rogoff is by all accounts a brilliant man. The Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist is a chess grandmaster. His thesis committee included current Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer. But like many survivors of Ivy League hoop jumping, the poor fellow appears to have emerged punch drunk. […]
Cash Bans and the Next Crisis
Cash Bans and the Next Crisis Criminalizing Cash Money sometimes goes “full politics”. Take poor Kenneth Rogoff at Harvard. He wants a dollar with a voter registration card, a U.S. flag on its windshield, and a handgun in its belt – the kind of money that supports the Establishment and votes for Hillary. Etatiste tool […]
Why the oil price slump hasn’t kickstarted the global economy
Why the oil price slump hasn’t kickstarted the global economy There has only been a modest boost to global growth despite the oil price plummeting to as low as $35 a barrel. But as prices fall so the risks to producers rise An oil pump at sunset in the desert oilfields of Sakhir, Bahrain. As […]
Draghi’s Dangerous Bet: The Perils of a Weak Euro
Draghi’s Dangerous Bet: The Perils of a Weak Euro The recent decision by the European Central Bank to open the monetary floodgates has weakened the euro and is boosting the German economy. But the move increases the threat of turbulence on the financial markets and could trigger a currency war. The concern could be felt everywhere […]
Keynesian Hit Men On The Road—–Krugman And Rogoff Peddling Toxic Advice | David Stockman’s Contra Corner
Keynesian Hit Men On The Road—–Krugman And Rogoff Peddling Toxic Advice | David Stockman’s Contra Corner. Here are a couple of reasons why Keynesian economists are truly a menace in today’s bubble ridden and debt-impaled world. It seems that both Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff and Princeton’s Paul Krugman are on the global advice circuit, peddling what amounts to sheer […]
