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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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Incubation Phase: Gradually and then Suddenly

Incubation Phase: Gradually and then Suddenly Key points 1) The May jobs “shocker” was largely a reflection of CARES coverage of corporate payrolls. 2) The gap between Wall Street and Main Street appears similar to the “incubation phase” of other major downturns. 3) Federal support remains essential, but is best targeted toward preserving the “circular flow” of the […]

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Risk-Aversion Meets a Hypervalued Market

Risk-Aversion Meets a Hypervalued Market Sooner or later a crash is coming, and it may be terrific. – Roger Babson, September 5, 1929 Roger Babson’s first rule of investing was “keep speculation and investments separate.” He is remembered not only for founding Babson College in Massachusetts, but also for his speech at the National Business […]

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Sizing Up the Bubble

Sizing Up the Bubble “In the ruin of all collapsed booms is to be found the work of men who bought property at prices they knew perfectly well were fictitious, but who were willing to pay such prices simply because they knew that some still greater fool could be depended on to take the property […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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