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My One Prediction for 2023
My One Prediction for 2023 The question that should be on our minds is: how are my household’s buffers holding up? Lists of predictions for the new year are reliably popular. Here’s 10 predictions, there’s 17 predictions, over here we have 23 and a half… let’s strip it all down to one prediction: everyone’s predictions will be […]
Instability
Instability In every century the same thing happens at one point or another. Society loses the plot and gets caught up in a mania, a grandiose exercise in self delusion. It can be political, it can be religious, and yes it can be economic. Sometimes these manias are confined to regions or small groups of […]
Why the Unraveling Will Accelerate
Why the Unraveling Will Accelerate Sclerotic, hidebound institutions optimized for linear stability and permanent growth are simply not designed to adapt to non-linear change and disruption of permanent growth. Since the first news of pandemic in late January, I’ve been discussing potential accelerants to the unraveling of our fragile financial system: second-order effects (initial travel restrictions and layoffs were first-order […]
Gold Outlook 2019: Uncertainty Makes Gold A “Valuable Strategic Asset” – WGC
Gold Outlook 2019: Uncertainty Makes Gold A “Valuable Strategic Asset” – WGC Gold Outlook 2019 – World Gold Council As we look ahead, we expect that the interplay between market risk and economic growth in 2019 will drive gold demand. And we explore three key trends that we expect will influence its price performance: financial […]
Weekly Commentary: Instability
Weekly Commentary: Instability With the Turkish lira down another 6.6% in Monday trading, global “Risk Off” market Instability was turning acute. The U.S. dollar index jumped to an almost 14-month high Monday, as the Turkish lira, Argentine peso, Indian rupee and others traded to record lows versus the greenback. The South African rand “flash crashed” […]
When Long-Brewing Instability Finally Reaches Crisis
When Long-Brewing Instability Finally Reaches Crisis Keep an eye on the system’s buffers. They look fine until they suddenly collapse. The doom-and-gloomers among us who have been predicting the unraveling of an inherently unstable financial system appear to have been disproved by the reflation of yet another credit-asset bubble. But inherently unstable / imbalanced systems can […]
The Three Crises That Will Synchronize a Global Meltdown by 2025
The Three Crises That Will Synchronize a Global Meltdown by 2025 We’re going to get a synchronized global dynamic, but it won’t be “growth” and stability, it will be DeGrowth and instability. To understand the synchronized global meltdown that is on tap for the 2021-2025 period, we must first stipulate the relationship of “money” to […]
Don’t listen to the ruling elite: the world economy is in real trouble
Don’t listen to the ruling elite: the world economy is in real trouble Andy Xie says those attending the G20, Davos and other wasteful meetings are wrong to try to pin the blame for the turmoil on people’s psychology; all signs point to a prolonged period of global stagnation and instability The G20 working group […]
The Lesson of Empires: Once Privilege Limits Social Mobility, Collapse Is Inevitable
The Lesson of Empires: Once Privilege Limits Social Mobility, Collapse Is Inevitable The next few years will strip away the illusions of “growth” and reveal which dominates our society and economy: privilege or social mobility. Among the many lessons of empires is one shared by virtually every empire:once the privileged few limit the rise of […]
Economics in a Time of Political Instability
Economics in a Time of Political Instability MILAN/STANFORD – Over the last 35 years, Western democracies have seen a rapid rise in political instability, characterized by frequent shifts in governing parties and their programs and philosophies, driven at least partly by economic transformation and hardship. The question now is how to improve economic performance at […]
Stability begets instability: The challenges of the post-2008 world
Stability begets instability: The challenges of the post-2008 world Most people value stability in their lives. And, this makes perfect sense. Stability usually means an adequate, secure income; an established group of friends and family members with whom we are close; an identity in our communities based on our jobs, community involvement, and personal networks; […]
The Class War Has Already Started
The Class War Has Already Started Here’s what’s obvious, but unacceptable: we need a new system. Pundits and apologists are quick to chastise anyone who even speaks of class war, as if the words alone might spark what the pundits and apologists fear. The pundits and apologists dread the words because they know the Class War […]
The Boundaries and Future of Solution Space – Part 2
The Boundaries and Future of Solution Space – Part 2 The Psychological Driver of Deflation and the Collapse of the Trust Horizon The collective mood shifts rapidly from optimism and greed to pessimism and fear as the bubble bursts, and as it does so, the financial system moves from expansion to contraction. Financial contraction involves the breaking […]
QE Breeds Instability
QE Breeds Instability Central bankers have promised ad nauseum to keep rates low for long periods of time. And they have delivered. Their claim is that this helps the economy recover, but that is just a silly idea. What it does do is help create the illusion of a recovering economy. But that is mostly […]
charles hugh smith-Globalization = Permanent Instability
charles hugh smith-Globalization = Permanent Instability. Globalization continually creates imbalances that fuel a perpetual instability that gradually impoverishes every sector other than global capital. Globalization has two guaranteed consequences: permanent instability and endless boom-and-bust cycles. As noted in Forget “Free Trade”–Focus on Capital Flows, the key engine of globalization is mobile capital: capital that can borrow money for […]
