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“This Is The Biggest Bubble I’ve Seen In My Career” – Dems’ Infrastructure Spending Could Lead To Devastating Crash, Druck Warns

“This Is The Biggest Bubble I’ve Seen In My Career” – Dems’ Infrastructure Spending Could Lead To Devastating Crash, Druck Warns

This isn’t the first time billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller has warned that US markets are caught up in a “raging mania” fostered by the trillions of dollars in government spending. Druck, an acolyte of George Soros known for his macro investing prowess (even as he complains that contemporary Fed-backstopped markets “make no sense”) is a frequent guest on CNBC. But on Friday morning, he made a brief appearance on MSNBC’s Morning Show with Stephanie Ruhle, who seemed ill-equipped to respond to Druck’s arguments about why the Dems’ multi-trillion two-part infrastructure plan will end up hurting America’s poorest citizens.

Druckenmiller

As Druck explains, the “V-shaped” economic recovery has been “the sharpest recovery in history,” noting that it took 10 years for the American economy to achieve the same gains following the start of the Great Depression.

The problem is that the nearly $6 trillion allocated by Congress to combat the economic impact of COVID has been spent after the economy already finished recovering. The accelerating pace of inflation, and inability of certain businesses to hire lower-wage workers, are but byproducts of this.

Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Moving on, Druck pointed out that the biggest economic crises of the last 100 years have largely been caused by asset bubbles and inflation. “Inflation is a tax the poor can’t afford or avoid,” Druck added.

Any further stimulus spending is intended to fix a problem that, in Druck’s words, “doesn’t exist anymore.” He added: “If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US economy, I would do aggressive spending in the middle of an already hot economy.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

President-elect Trump stated in his victory speech that he intends to make America great again by infrastructure spending.

President-elect Trump stated in his victory speech that he intends to make America great again by infrastructure spending.

Unfortunately, he is unlikely to have the room for manoeuvre to achieve this ambition as well as his intended tax cuts, because the Government’s finances are already in a perilous state.

It is also becoming increasingly likely that the next fiscal year will be characterised by growing price inflation and belated increases in interest rates, against a background of rising raw material prices. That being the case, public finances are not only already fragile, but they are likely to become more so from now on, without any extra spending on infrastructure or fiscal stimulus. So far, most informed commentaries on the prospects for inflation have concentrated on the negative effects of an expansionary monetary policy on the private sector. With the pending appointment of a new President with ideas of his own, this article turns our attention to the effects on government finances.

Government outlays are already set to increase, due to price inflation, more than the GDP deflator would suggest. The deflator is always a dumbed-down estimate of price inflation. At the same time, tax receipts will tend to lag behind any uplift from price inflation. Furthermore, the wealth-transfer effect of monetary inflation over a prolonged period reduces the ability of the non-financial private sector to pay the taxes necessary to compensate for the lower purchasing power of an inflating currency.

Trump is a businessman. Such people often think that running a country’s economy is merely a scaled-up business project. Not so. Countries can be regarded as not-for-profit organisations, and democratic ones are driven by the consensus of diverse vested interests. The only sustainable approach is to stand back and give individuals the freedom to run their own affairs, and to discretely discourage the business of lobbying.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Citadel Is Breached: Congress Taps the Fed for Infrastructure Funding

The Citadel Is Breached: Congress Taps the Fed for Infrastructure Funding

The bill was a start. But some experts, including Congressional candidate Tim Canova, say Congress should go further and authorize funds to be issued for infrastructure directly. 

For at least a decade, think tanks, commissions and other stakeholders have fought to get Congress to address the staggering backlog of maintenance, upkeep and improvements required to bring the nation’s infrastructure into the 21st century. Countries with less in the way of assets have overtaken the US in innovation and efficiency, while our dysfunctional Congress has battled endlessly over the fiscal cliff, tax reform, entitlement reform, and deficit reduction.

Both houses and both political parties agree that something must be done, but they have been unable to agree on where to find the funds. Republicans aren’t willing to raise taxes on the rich, and Democrats aren’t willing to cut social services for the poor.

In December 2015, however, a compromise was finally reached. On December 4, the last day the Department of Transportation was authorized to cut checks for highway and transit projects, President Obama signed a 1,300-page $305-billion transportation infrastructure bill that renewed existing highway and transit programs. According to America’s civil engineers, the sum was not nearly enough for all the work that needs to be done. But the bill was nevertheless considered a landmark achievement, because Congress has not been able to agree on how to fund a long-term highway and transit bill since 2005.

That was one of its landmark achievements. Less publicized was where Congress would get the money: largely from the Federal Reserve and Wall Street megabanks. The deal was summarized in a December 1st Bloomberg article titled “Highway Bill Compromise Would Take Money from US Banks”:

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