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Another Black Swan? Turkey Holds Snap Elections Amid NATO-Backed Civil War
Another Black Swan? Turkey Holds Snap Elections Amid NATO-Backed Civil War
There’s a potential black swan event taking place in Turkey on Sunday and no one seems to care. That is, the media isn’t devoting nearly enough coverage to Turkish elections considering the impact the outcome will invariably have on the situation in Syria, on the fate of the lira, and on the Pentagon’s strategy with regard to embedding spec ops with the YPG.
As a reminder, Turkey held elections back in June and the outcome did not please President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
AKP lost its absolute majority in parliament thanks in no small part to a relatively strong showing by the pro-Kurdish HDP and that meant that Erdogan couldn’t move forward with plans to consolidate his power by amending the constitution. Well, if you know anything about Erdogan, you know that he isn’t exactly the type to take these kinds of things lying down, and so, he decided to trade NATO access to Incirlik for Western acquiescence to a crackdown on the PKK.
Of course that’s not how it was pitched to the media.
The official line was that after a suicide bombing in Suruc claimed by ISIS, Ankara decided it was time to go after Islamic State. Not to put too fine a point on it, but that’s a joke. The PKK and many other observers have long contended that Turkey is complicit in allowing money, guns, and personnel to flow across the border into Syria so that ISIS can continue to destabilize the Assad regime which Ankara opposes. In other words, Erdogan has no interest whatsoever in fighting ISIS. What he does have an interest in is starting a new war with the PKK in order to convince voters that the security situation in Turkey is such that only a dictator can get the situation under control – that’s the whole gambit.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Attacks On the Press Escalate Ahead of Turkish Elections
Attacks On the Press Escalate Ahead of Turkish Elections
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, Turkish riot police stormed the offices of Koza Ipek Holding, a media group in Istanbul housing the Bugun TV channel and the Bugun and Millet newspapers.
“Dear viewers,” a Bugun TV anchor casually announced during the early morning broadcast, “do not be surprised if you see police in our studio in the upcoming minutes.” Outside, police were leading journalists away in handcuffs, while citizens — many of them journalists who worked in the building — protested the dawn raid as police attempted to disperse the growing crowd with tear gas and water cannons.
Scenes of riot police suddenly and forcefully storming media outlets perceived to be critical of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have become increasingly common in Turkey. In June the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) won 13 percent of the vote in the Parliamentary election, thereby surpassing the 10 percent electoral threshold needed for Parliamentary representation and taking away seats from President Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Crackdown Ahead of Elections
As the November 1 elections approach — a “snap” election called by the AKP in hopes of regaining a Parliamentary majority — press freedom advocates are concerned that the increasing raids on media outlets and attacks on journalists represent a dire threat to Turkish democracy.
“This pressure and attacks have significantly impacted journalists’ ability to report on matters of public interest freely and independently,” said Muzaffar Suleymanov, a researcher for the Committee to Protect Journalists Europe and Central Asia Program, at a recent press conference hosted by an emergency press freedom mission to Turkey. “In a practical sense, attacks on journalists compromise their work and affect the public’s ability to make an informed decision to vote.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Turkey On The Brink As Calls For Martial Law, Civil War Send Lira Plunging Again
Turkey On The Brink As Calls For Martial Law, Civil War Send Lira Plunging Again
For anyone who might have missed it, Turkey is quickly descending into chaos on all fronts.
The lira is putting to new lows against the dollar on a daily basis as confidence suffers from a worsening political crisis which began in June when AKP lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in over a decade throwing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plan to transform the country’s political system into an executive presidency into doubt. Not one to give up easily (especially when it comes to consolidating his power), Erdogan proceeded to launch an ad hoc military offensive against the PKK in an attempt to undermine support for the pro-Kurdish HDP ahead of new elections which, thanks to the willful obstruction of the coalition formation process, are now virtually inevitable.
Turkey’s central bank hasn’t helped matters and the lira legged lower on Wednesday after it was made clear that a rate hike was not in the cards until Fed liftoff is official.
Citi has taken a look at the situation and determined that in fact, the lira is the most vulnerable of all EM currencies they track:
We believe it is going to be difficult for the local markets angle of the EM asset class, in this important (potential) transition of monetary policy in the US, and also taking into account any potential move by the ECB in 2016 (away from a QE stance). That prompted us to revisit our FX vulnerability model. In the model, we look into EMFX from three angles: 1) the macro vulnerability aspect (focused on BoP dynamics, FX reserve metrics, portfolio flows and CDS); 2) interest rate coverage (measured by 1y1y forward real rates, current implied yields and bond yield premium after hedging costs); and 3) our assessment of positioning by real money investors and leveraged accounts in the several EM currencies. TRY, BRL, ZAR, MXN and MYR rank high in terms of aggregate vulnerability.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
