About 3 weeks ago, on my Facebook and Twitter, I indicated that that US stock market would crash soon, and that it would be a symptom of a larger problem. In the following days I also clarified my reasons for saying so. As it happens, the market has begun to crash before I even thought it would. It might recover for the time being, but in the longer term a crash is inevitable. The situation suggests that about $65 trillion of wealth will soon be disappearing from the global economy. The problem here is that we are in a credit bubble, quite possibly the worst ever in history. One that is even worse than the one we experienced during the Great Depression (1929).
Summary: Stock markets are propped up with borrowed money, making them a symptom, and not ‘the’ problem. The question that comes to mind here is whether the bubble is bursting right now. To answer this, we’ll need to put everything into context. If we consider the latest market conditions, the logical flow of a crash would go start with the crashing of the US Stock Markets, followed by the Asian Markets, and further followed by real estate, and other assets and in the short term by gold markets as well. After these have occurred, the final symptom would manifest with about half of the world’s banks going bankrupt, at least the smaller ones and some of the medium-sized ones if we’re being optimistic — the great depression saw 9000 banks fail in just the US.
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