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China Unveils A Housing Market Bailout: Here’s What’s In It, And Why It Is Still Not Enough

China Unveils A Housing Market Bailout: Here’s What’s In It, And Why It Is Still Not Enough

More than four years ago, when China first launched its latest “deleveraging” campaign targeted at bursting the country’s housing bubble in a controlled fashion, which coincidentally was the single largest asset for China’s massive middle class, we – and many others – said that this experiment was doomed and that all China is doing is delaying the inevitable bailout of the property sector with another metric asston of new debt. Well, as the news overnight confirmed, we were right… but not before China saw all of its largest domestic real estate developers collapse, push its housing market into a deflationary tailspin from which the country has not yet recovered, and suffered five years where its economy stagnated and pushed social tension to the edge.

So what happened?

On Friday, Chinese policymakers unveiled a fresh batch of easing measures for the housing market, including:

  1. clear top-down guidance for local governments to purchase existing housing inventory for public housing provision,
  2. an RMB300bn relending quota for destocking the housing market,
  3. reductions in downpayment ratios and mortgage rates,
  4. more policy support to secure the delivery of pre-sold homes.

Needless to say, local government (which is really just an extension of the central government) purchases of existing housing inventory is for lack of a better word, nationalization, and as Goldman writes in its post-mortem (pdf available to pro subs), if implemented at scale, can help stabilize home sales, prices and completions, but the boost to new starts and land purchase would be limited.

And while lower downpayment ratios and mortgage rates may boost home sales to some degree, the magnitude of downpayment ratio reductions was relatively small this time, and the pace of cuts to effective mortgage rates could be somewhat constrained by bank net interest margins.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ten Years After the Last Meltdown: Is Another One Around the Corner?

Ten Years After the Last Meltdown: Is Another One Around the Corner?

September marked a decade since the bursting of the housing bubble, which was followed by the stock market meltdown and the government bailout of the big banks and Wall Street. Last week’s frantic stock market sell-off indicates the failure to learn the lesson of 2008 makes another meltdown inevitable.In 2001-2002 the Federal Reserve responded to the economic downturn caused by the bursting of the technology bubble by pumping money into the economy. This new money ended up in the housing market. This was because the so-called conservative Bush administration, like the “liberal” Clinton administration before it, was using the Community Reinvestment Act and government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to make mortgages available to anyone who wanted one — regardless of income or credit history.

Banks and other lenders eagerly embraced this “ownership society”’ agenda with a “lend first, ask questions when foreclosing” policy. The result was the growth of subprime mortgages, the rush to invest in housing, and millions of Americans finding themselves in homes they could not afford.

When the housing bubble burst, the government should have let the downturn run its course in order to correct the malinvestments made during the phony, Fed-created boom. This may have caused some short-term pain, but it would have ensured the recovery would be based on a solid foundation rather than a bubble of fiat currency.

Of course Congress did exactly the opposite, bailing out Wall Street and the big banks. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to historic lows and embarked on a desperate attempt to inflate the economy via QE 1, 2, and 3.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Rising Economic Head Winds

Rising Economic Head Winds

Remember the “tea party” revolt in 2009–2010 against government bailouts and government spending?

Remember the “fiscal cliff” drama of Dec. 31, 2012, when Congress raised taxes and cut spending to avoid a debt default and government shutdown?

Remember the actual government shutdown in October 2013 as Republicans held the line against more government spending?

Well, congratulations if you do, because everyone else seems to have forgotten.

The days of caring about debt and deficits are over. In just the past two months, Republicans passed the Trump tax cuts that will increase the deficit by $1.5 trillion on a conservative estimate, and probably much more.

Then Republicans and Democrats “compromised” on eliminating caps on defense spending and domestic spending by agreeing to more of both. That repeal of the so-called “sequester” will add over $300 billion to the deficit over the next two years.

Then there’s a tsunami of student loan debts in default that the Treasury has guaranteed and will have to pay off. Finally, the higher interest rates from this debt will add $210 billion to the annual deficit for every 1% increase in average federal debt funding costs.

Today we are looking at $1 trillion-plus deficits as far as the eye can see.

That’s extraordinary enough. What is more extraordinary is that no one cares! Democrats, Republicans, the White House and everyday Americans are all united in totally ignoring the fact that America is going broke.

This euphoric mood in response to more spending won’t last. The growth is not there to pay for the tax cuts, and the economy is not even growing fast enough to keep up with the growth in the debt.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bombardier’s strange chokehold on the public purse

Bombardier’s strange chokehold on the public purse

In today’s lexicon, government ‘investment’ means spending your money on someone else

Bombardier's new, much-delayed CS300 aircraft made its first test flight in February, but some investment analysts are wondering if the longer, narrow-bodied jet has missed its moment.

Bombardier’s new, much-delayed CS300 aircraft made its first test flight in February, but some investment analysts are wondering if the longer, narrow-bodied jet has missed its moment. (Christinne Muschi/Reuters)

Governments simply don’t spend anymore, they “invest” on behalf of grateful taxpayers who put up the capital.

The political appeal of this semantic shift is obvious: “investing” has a virtuous ring; it implies prudent choices and a handsome return.

Put it this way, you might actually pay someone to invest your money, but do you really want anyone else spending it?

As for “bailout,” well, that term is about as politically acceptable nowadays as a racial slur. You bail out the weak and incompetent. You invest in winners.

So, this week, Bombardier is — once again — a “winner.”

“This will be a profitable transaction for everybody,” declared Quebec’s minister of the economy, Jacques Daoust, as he confirmed his government’s decision to “invest” $1 billion in the floundering airplane maker, which has been hemorrhaging money and missing delivery deadlines.

In addition, Daoust made it clear he expects “everybody” to include Canada’s new prime minister, Justin Trudeau, just as soon as he officially takes possession of the federal vault this week.

“I can assure you,” said Daoust, that upon learning the name of Trudeau’s new industry minister, “I’ll get his or her phone number and put in a call.”

Daoust is counselling a nice round “investment” figure for Ottawa, too. Say, another billion or so.

Trudeau hasn’t made any commitments, but Daoust’s message is pretty clear: You won with Quebec’s help, and it’s time to help Quebec.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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