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The global bank credit crisis
The global bank credit crisis Globally, further falls in consumer price inflation are now unlikely and there are yet further interest rate increases to come. Bond yields are already on the rise, and a new phase of a banking crisis will be triggered. This article looks at the factors that have come together to drive […]
The bell tolls for fiat
The bell tolls for fiat The importance of Russia’s announcement that a new gold-backed trade currency is on the BRICS meeting agenda for August 22—24 in Johannesburg seems to have gone completely over everyone’s heads, with mainstream media not even reporting it. This is a mistake. China and Russia know that if they are to […]
Time to trash Triffin
Time to trash Triffin The dollar-based credit bubble is imploding, and emerging economies are seeking protection by accepting trade settlement in other currencies. The US policy of threatening regime change, currency destabilisation, or other means of ensuring nations remain in its sphere of influence are now failing. Mainstream economists in the West insist the dollar […]
A tale of two worlds
A tale of two worlds In the war between the western alliance and the Asian axis, the media focus is on the Ukrainian battlefield. The real war is in currencies, with Russia capable of destroying the dollar. So far, Putin’s actions have been relatively passive. But already, both Russia and China have accumulated enough gold […]
The evolution of credit and debt in 2023
The evolution of credit and debt in 2023 The evidence strongly suggests that a combined interest rate, economic and currency crisis for the US and its western alliance will continue in 2023. This article focuses on credit, its constraints, and why quantitative easing has already crowded out private sector activity. Adjusting M2 money supply for […]
Inflation, recession, and declining US hegemony
Inflation, recession, and declining US hegemony In the distant future, we might look back on 2022 and 2023 as pivotal years. So far, we have seen the conflict between America and the two Asian hegemons emerge into the open, leading to a self-inflicted energy crisis on the western alliance. The forty-year trend of declining interest […]
Geopolitics: the world is splitting into two
Geopolitics: the world is splitting into two While we are being distracted by Ukraine, President Putin has advanced his geopolitical goals materially. Aided and abetted by President Xi, Putin is taking the Asian continent into his control. That mission is well on its way to being achieved. He now awaits the winter months to finally […]
A tale of two civilisations
A tale of two civilisations In recent years, America’s unsuccessful attempts at containing China as a rival hegemon has only served to promote Chinese antipathy against American capitalism. China is now retreating into the comfort of her long-established moral values, best described as a mixture of Confucianism and Marxism, while despising American individualism, its careless […]
Eurozone finances have deteriorated
Eurozone finances have deteriorated Despite negative interest rates and money printing by the European Central Bank, which conveniently allowed all Eurozone member governments to fund themselves, having gone nowhere Eurozone nominal GDP is even lower than it was before the Lehman crisis. Then there is the question of bad debts, which have been mostly shovelled […]
The dollar’s debt trap
The dollar’s debt trap On the fiftieth anniversary of the Nixon Shock, this article explains why fiat currencies have become joined at the hip to financial asset values. And why with increasing inevitability they are about to descend into the next financial crisis together. I start by defining the currencies we use as money and […]
Suffering a sea-change
Suffering a sea-change There is an established theoretical relationship between bonds and equities which provides a framework for the future performance of financial assets. It would be a mistake to ignore it, ahead of the forthcoming rise in global interest rates.Price inflation is roaring, and so far, central banks are in denial. But it is […]
Inflation watch: Beware the ides of March
Inflation watch: Beware the ides of March President Biden has now had his $1.9 trillion stimulus package passed into law, and it will not be the last in the current fiscal year. Covid is not over and is sure to resurge with new variants next winter.But even assuming that is not the case, we still […]
Crazy days for money
Crazy days for money This article anticipates the end of the fiat currency regime and argues why its replacement can only be gold and silver, most likely in the form of fiat money turned into gold substitutes. It explains why the current fashion for cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin, are unsuited as future mediums of exchange, […]
Markets are all about flows
Markets are all about flows This article looks at prospective supply and demand factors for financial assets in the New Year and beyond. Investors should take into account money flowing into and out of financial assets as well as stock flows, particularly escalating government bond issuance, which looks likely to accelerate significantly in the coming […]
