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Peter Schiff: “The Truth Is We Don’t Have A Booming Economy”

Peter Schiff doesn’t mince words when he declared the precarious state the United States economy has found itself in. As SHTFplan.com’s Mac Slavo notes, Schiff says “the truth is we don’t have a booming economy,” and he’s not the only one who has noticed.

October was the worst month for global equities in more than six years. Globally, stock markets lost 7.5%, their worst month since May 2012. Even with the late rally, it was the biggest monthly decline in the Nasdaq since 2008.

“All of the bulls were out in force on the financial networks claiming that the correction is over. Everybody was confident that the lows are in, that the big back-to-back rally is proof and you better buy now, otherwise you’re going to miss the rally, and this is the typical correction and now it has run its course. And you know what? If this really was the end of the correction, most likely there wouldn’t be so many people that were so confident that it’s over. You’d have a lot more fear, especially on Halloween. The fact that there is no fear, to me, shows that it’s more likely that this is not the end of the correction, but the beginning of the bear market and that this rally is a correction.” –Peter Schiff via Seeking Alpha

Schiff is well-known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, but that becomes slightly more real when hearing him say that the job market if a gigantic bubble. Schiff says that jobs are just one more bubble that’s about to burst.

Two hundred thousand jobs a month in an economy the size of ours, especially given how few people, or what a large percentage of the workforce is not working, we should be creating a lot more than 200,000 jobs per month. But we’re not.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Market Is “Pulling Forward End-Of-Cycle Timing” – Nomura Warns of Shift To “Risk-Negative Mindset”

With global investors desperately searching for a narrative to explain “what changed” as the calendar flipped a page to exuberant September to awful October, we suspect the realization of the fact that global central bank balance sheets are contracting and the world is tightening finally started to dawn on even the most ardent dip-buyer…

Even China’s promise of never-ending support for stocks was unable to support stocks overnight, and as Nomura’s MD of cross-asset strategy notes:

This then looks like general Macro consensual positioning “gross-down” flow, as “Longs” in SPX, Nikkei, Crude and USD are under pressure, while “Shorts” in USTs, ED$, EUR and Gold all squeeze.

Additionally, Charlie McElligott points out that the S&P as the “YTD global Equities safe-haven” theme now too is “cracking”:

After shattering through the 200d MA once again yesterday, S&P futures are now again within reach of the MTD lows (2712) as discretionary tactical longs “tap out” and asset managers continue to sell-down legacy longs (still ~$80B in SPX)

Pointing out that the S&P has big gamma at 2700 strikes (~$3.9B for 10/26 expiry, ~$3.6B for 10/29 expiry) with the largest “pull” remaining at the 2750 strike (~$4.7B / ~$4.0B)

The strategist warns of a slow and ongoing “pain trade” for legacy consensual Equities fund positioning as  our global Equities factor monitors showing “Growth” again hit hard to the benefit of “Value overnight across Asia-Pac, Japan and Europe (on top of the same ongoing MTD theme in U.S.)

This of course was the top concern going into EPS season:

would investors pivot to “late-cycle” mentality with regard to the likelihood of generally “lowered guidance,” or would they take the “glass half full” route of “lower bars to beat” in Q4

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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