global debt bubble – Olduvai.ca

Today’s the first day in a long time financial markets appear willing to at least consider the reality of the geopolitical situation on the ground for what it is, as opposed to what most people would like it to be. As I’ve noted for months, the “trade war” is just one battle in a much larger, increasingly unstable struggle between the U.S. and China for global power and leverage to shape the next paradigm of world history.

A failure to appreciate how big this really is explains why investors have been so willing to swallow unrealistic happy talk from both sides. The risk that needs to be discounted in the market isn’t a risk of higher tariffs, but the risk of WW3. The U.S. and China were never going to sign a trade deal and blissfully return to the ways things were. That world is over. We now find ourselves in the very early days of a historic struggle to influence the future.

Gold

Back in January, I wrote a twitter thread centered around gold which ended up becoming very popular. It’s been around five months since then, so I want to provide a quick update.

I had outlined four reasons why I had become increasingly bullish.

· Jan 4, 2019 Replying to @LibertyBlitz

9/ U.S. equities have been in a historic bull market since then, and gold has done nothing but go down. I don’t think the next bull market in gold can really get going until this central bank manufactured 10 year asset bubble begins to burst, and I think this is now happening.

10/ Now I want to summarize why I’m becoming increasingly confident a gold bull market is on the way.

1) Market cycles turning (discussed above).
2) Geopolitics, emerging multi-polar world order.
3) Sentiment.
4) Trading action.74 4:19 PM – Jan 4, 2019

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Financial Advice In 2019: Own Gold To Hedge $250 Trillion Global Debt Bubble

January 8, 2019

Financial Advice In 2019: Own Gold To Hedge $250 Trillion Global Debt Bubble

– Financial advice needed in 2019? Let six experts guide you

– Save regularly, switch your mortgage, check up on tax reliefs & hedge risks in 2019 by diversifying into gold

– “There are also very real risks posed by the global debt bubble as the world nears $250 trillion in debt and the global debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to nearly 320 per cent” say GoldCore

Excerpt from Irish Times today (subscriber only)

My resolution:
One financial resolution is to read and watch less financial news. I stay up to date with financial markets, including breaking financial news, as I have to write a market update every day and frequently provide comment to media.

However, in the age of Trump and Brexit, it can be hard to keep up with it all.

I am going to unsubscribe from many of the alerts I get and become more selective and focused in my news consumption. This will help filter out much of the daily and weekly market noise and help me get more valuable long-term signal.

We believe that diversification and owning gold as a hedge and safe haven asset will again be important in 2019.

My recommendation:
We live in an increasingly polarised and uncertain world which casts shadows over our economies and the investment outlook.

This is clearly seen with Brexit, the risk of “Italexit”, an increasingly fractured EU and Trump’s aggressive foreign and economic policies, including trade wars.

There are also very real risks posed by the global debt bubble as the world nears $250 trillion in debt and the global debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to nearly 320 per cent.

We believe that diversification and owning gold as a hedge and safe haven asset will again be important in 2019 and in the coming years.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The 11th Hour: 8 Examples Of Mainstream Media Sources Warning Us Of Imminent Economic Disaster

September 8, 2018

The 11th Hour: 8 Examples Of Mainstream Media Sources Warning Us Of Imminent Economic Disaster

Are we on the verge of another great financial crisis, a devastating recession and a horrific implosion of the global debt bubble? On my website I have been relentlessly warning my readers about the inevitable consequences of our very foolish actions, but now the mainstream media is beginning to sound just like The Economic Collapse Blog. The coming crisis is so close now that a lot of them are starting to see it, and of course economic disaster is already a reality for much of the rest of the planet. For years, the mainstream media told us that things would get better, and in a lot of ways we did see some improvement. But now the tone of the mainstream media has become quite ominous, and that is definitely not a positive sign. The following are 8 examples of mainstream media sources warning us of imminent economic disaster…

#1 Forbes: “Disaster Is Inevitable When America’s Stock Market Bubble Bursts”…

As shown in this report, the U.S. stock market is currently trading at extremely precarious levels and it won’t take much to topple the whole house of cards. Once again, the Federal Reserve, which was responsible for creating the disastrous Dot-com bubble and housing bubble, has inflated yet another extremely dangerous bubble in its attempt to force the economy to grow after the Great Recession. History has proven time and time again that market meddling by central banks leads to massive market distortions and eventual crises. As a society, we have not learned the lessons that we were supposed to learn from 1999 and 2008, therefore we are doomed to repeat them.

The purpose of this report is to warn society of the path that we are on and the risks that we are facing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The 11th Hour: 8 Examples Of Mainstream Media Sources Warning Us Of Imminent Economic Disaster

September 7, 2018

The 11th Hour: 8 Examples Of Mainstream Media Sources Warning Us Of Imminent Economic Disaster

Are we on the verge of another great financial crisis, a devastating recession and a horrific implosion of the global debt bubble? On my website I have been relentlessly warning my readers about the inevitable consequences of our very foolish actions, but now the mainstream media is beginning to sound just like The Economic Collapse Blog. The coming crisis is so close now that a lot of them are starting to see it, and of course economic disaster is already a reality for much of the rest of the planet. For years, the mainstream media told us that things would get better, and in a lot of ways we did see some improvement. But now the tone of the mainstream media has become quite ominous, and that is definitely not a positive sign. The following are 8 examples of mainstream media sources warning us of imminent economic disaster…

#1 Forbes: “Disaster Is Inevitable When America’s Stock Market Bubble Bursts”…

As shown in this report, the U.S. stock market is currently trading at extremely precarious levels and it won’t take much to topple the whole house of cards. Once again, the Federal Reserve, which was responsible for creating the disastrous Dot-com bubble and housing bubble, has inflated yet another extremely dangerous bubble in its attempt to force the economy to grow after the Great Recession. History has proven time and time again that market meddling by central banks leads to massive market distortions and eventual crises. As a society, we have not learned the lessons that we were supposed to learn from 1999 and 2008, therefore we are doomed to repeat them.

The purpose of this report is to warn society of the path that we are on and the risks that we are facing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Exter’s Pyramid “In Play” (And Is Martin Armstrong Right?)

January 18, 2015

Exter’s Pyramid “in play” (and is Martin Armstrong right?)

In a global debt bubble, it concerns us when the benchmark debt security still looks good value, albeit on a relative basis.

In spite of this, the consensus is (once again) calling for higher US yields and FOMC “lift off.” The two-year Treasury yield has been pricing in the latter…

…but the question is what is the long end of the Treasury curve pricing in?

Slower growth and lower inflation, most likely. Risk of global contagion, possibly. That the FOMC makes a mistake (in raising rates)…maybe that too.

The Fed might be desperate to raise rates ahead of the next downturn (how embarrassing not to) but this analyst would be surprised to see more than 1 or 2 token 0.25% increases – and that’s if things are rosy.

As we know, the narrative from central banks can change at the slightest hint of trouble, e.g. Ballard’s QE4 comment during last October’s selloff. Watch the spin as the Fed portrays lower energy prices as “transitory” and no reason to alter its desire to tighten, while the ECB’s desire to ease only grows, even though neither is achieving its mandate on prices.

Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law?

The key point is that you can’t normalise rates in the “Winter” phase of a long wave (Kondratieff) cycle. There is just too much debt. It’s debt that drives these cycles and eventually brings them to an end.

This is the fourth cycle since the Industrial Revolution and the longest by far. The lack of a gold standard has allowed the central banks to extend it through unprecedented credit creation.

Here is our timing of these cycles:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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