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What? Default? Where? Dollar?
What? Default? Where? Dollar? It won’t come as a surprise to anyone that the first half of 2020 has brought, among many other things, renewed calls for the demise of the US dollar. It’s been pretty much a non-stop call for over a decade now, and longer. But this time, like all previous ones, I’m […]
Presenting SocGen’s 5 Black Swans For 2016
Presenting SocGen’s 5 Black Swans For 2016 If you’re the type who likes black swans this has been the month for you. On the political front, Portugal’s Socialists, led by Antonio Costa, formed an alliance with the Left Bloc and the Communists on the way to overthrowing the Passos Coelho government and presaging a repudiation of Berlin’s brand […]
Saudi Oil Minister Puts On Brave Face Amid Severe Headwinds: “Eventually, Economic Producers Will Prevail”
Saudi Oil Minister Puts On Brave Face Amid Severe Headwinds: “Eventually, Economic Producers Will Prevail” As the EM world looks on helplessly while Saudi Arabia’s war with the US shale complex (and, by extension, with the Fed) serves to keep crude prices depressed putting enormous pressure on commodity currencies and accelerating emerging market outflows, the […]
A Hapless Brazil Incurs Massive Losses On FX Swaps Amid Currency Carnage
A Hapless Brazil Incurs Massive Losses On FX Swaps Amid Currency Carnage As we’ve documented extensively of late, a host of idiosyncratic political factors have served to exacerbate what was already a very, very bad situation for emerging markets. This dynamic is most readily apparent in Brazil and Turkey, and although Ankara probably has a […]
In Latest Sign Of EM Chaos, Turkey’s FX Reserves Fall Below Key Threshold Ahead Of Pivotal Elections
In Latest Sign Of EM Chaos, Turkey’s FX Reserves Fall Below Key Threshold Ahead Of Pivotal Elections One of the key things to understand about the veritable meltdown that’s unfolded across emerging markets is that there’s more to the story than the headline risk factors. That is, while the list of proximate causes that includes […]
Shale Oil’s “Dirty Little Secret” Has Been Exposed
Shale Oil’s “Dirty Little Secret” Has Been Exposed On Friday, on the way to diving into Goldman’s $20 crude call, we recapped our characterization of low crude prices as a battle between the Fed and the Saudis, a battle which is now manifesting itself in budget troubles in Riyadh and a concurrent FX reserve burn. […]
Fallout From Petrodollar Demise Continues As Qatar Borrows $4 Billion Amid Crude Slump
Fallout From Petrodollar Demise Continues As Qatar Borrows $4 Billion Amid Crude Slump Early last month in “Cash-Strapped Saudi Arabia Hopes To Continue War Against Shale With Fed’s Blessing,” we noted the irony inherent in the fact that Saudi Arabia, whose effort to bankrupt the US shale space has blown a giant hole in the […]
The “Great Accumulation” Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World’s Central Banks Has Arrived
The “Great Accumulation” Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World’s Central Banks Has Arrived To be sure, there’s been no shortage of media coverage regarding the collapse in crude prices that’s unfolded over the course of the past year. Similarly, it’s no secret that commodity prices in general are sitting near their lowest levels […]
Why The Great Petrodollar Unwind Could Be $2.5 Trillion Larger Than Anyone Thinks
Why The Great Petrodollar Unwind Could Be $2.5 Trillion Larger Than Anyone Thinks Last weekend, we explained why it really all comes down to the death of the petrodollar. China’s transition to a new currency regime was supposed to represent a move towards a greater role for the market in determining the exchange rate for the yuan. […]
Saudi Arabia Faces Another “Very Scary Moment” As Economy, FX Regime Face Crude Reality
Saudi Arabia Faces Another “Very Scary Moment” As Economy, FX Regime Face Crude Reality “They are working for their market share, not for the price,” Kazakh Prime Minister Karim Massimov told Bloomberg on Saturday, during the same interview in which he predicted that sooner or later, dollar pegs in Saudi Arabia and the UAE would […]
Meet the bureaucrat who had the courage to tell the truth (and probably won’t have a job tomorrow)
Meet the bureaucrat who had the courage to tell the truth (and probably won’t have a job tomorrow) It’s not very often that you hear a senior government official refer to their economic situation using the word ‘crisis’. Yet with uncharacteristic bluntness of any government official anywhere, at least one senior Chinese government official is […]
Will There Be Forced Official Sellers of Gold? |
Will There Be Forced Official Sellers of Gold? |. Possible Side-Effects of Plunging Commodity Prices – A Look at Russia One of our readers wrote to us with a question on a topic that will surely be of interest to a wider audience. Here is what he asked: “As FX reserves dwindle, surely there is […]
