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Fitch Warns Italy’s Government May Not Survive Amid Calls For A Vote Of Confidence

Update: Picking a perfect moment to prove Fitch’s point, Bloomberg reports that the Italian government may call a vote of confidence in the Senate on the migration measures. This would aim to strong-arm Five Star dissenters who face expulsion from the party if they vote against the government.

Additionally, Five Star and the League are also at loggerheads in the lower house of parliament over Five Star’s demand in an anti-corruption bill to scrap time limits on how long people can be prosecuted after an initial trial. Salvini has said the government must “avoid trials that last forever, also for the innocent, which would be a defeat for everyone.”

It appears that if the internal bickering within Italy’s “coalition” government continues, the EU may just opt to wait to discuss the Italian deficit with whatever government comes as a replacement.

* * *

While European bond traders have been focused on the escalating standoff between Italy and Brussels over Italy’s budget-busting deficit proposal, which culminated this morning with EU’s Dombrovskis warning that the European Commission is considering a sanction procedure against Italy if the budget does not change – even as Italy has sternly refused to change the budget – this morning the head of Fitch’s sovereign ratings, James McCormack, warned that uncertainty involving Italy’s coalition government is as great a risk for BTP investors as the budget for the simple reason that the government may not survive as its members are “too  different.”

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, the Fitch strategist said that there are not many things that the coalition partners agree on, and that raises questions about the government’s survival.

We are not convinced that this coalition government is actually going to survive. It has very different coalition partners” and there are “not many things that they agree on”, McCormack said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Hidden Debt Loophole Could be Widespread”: Fitch

“Hidden Debt Loophole Could be Widespread”: Fitch

Use of this financial instrument has ballooned. No one knows to what extent because there’s no disclosure. But it was a “key contributor” to the sudden collapse of outsourcing giant Carillion.

As regulators and stiffed creditors were poking through the debris of collapsed outsourcing giant Carillion – once employing 43,000 people worldwide – they found that the UK company had hidden much of its debts. And Fitch Ratings warned that this “technique” – a “debt loophole” – may be “widespread” in the US and Europe.

Carillion provided services to governments. It didn’t manufacture anything, didn’t have a lot of assets, and didn’t have a lot of debt – at least not disclosed on its books. Net debt on its balance sheet amounted to £219 million. But Fitch estimates that it had an additional financial debt of £400 million to £500 million.

This debt was hidden by a “technique commonly referred to as reverse factoring,” Fitch says. And it was “a key contributor to Carillion’s liquidation.”

This “reverse factoring” – part of supply chain financing – allowed Carillion to hide a debt of £400 million to £500 million in “other payables,” such as money owed suppliers. There were indications that something was off: Over a four-year period, “other payables” had nearly tripled, from £263 million to £761 million. According to Fitch, “This appears largely to have been the result of a reverse factoring program.”

But this was financial debt owed to banks – not trade accounts payable.

Any disclosure?

Almost none. Fitch explained in the report (press release here):

There was one passing reference to the company’s early payment program in the non-financial section of the accounts, but nothing in the audited financial statements and no numbers.

The only clue to the scale of the supply chain financing was the growth in “other payables,” the implications of which do not appear to have been appreciated by many in Carillion’s broader stakeholder group.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Venezuela Is Down To Its Last $10B As Debt Payments Loom

Venezuela Is Down To Its Last $10B As Debt Payments Loom

Maduro PDVSA

Venezuela’s central bank is down to its last $10.5 billion in foreign reserves, according to the institution’s most recent report on the country’s financials.

Over the remainder of 2017, Caracas needs to fund $7.2 billion in debt payments – an amount that it can only meet if oil prices spike far higher than the ongoing boosts caused by OPEC’s output reduction agreement.

Current reserves stand 66 percent lower than levels in 2011, when the government held $30 billion in foreign currencies to spend on loan repayments and other official business.

“The question is: Where is the floor?” Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America fixed income strategy at Nomura Holdings, told CNN Money. “If oil prices stagnate and foreign reserves reach zero, then the clock is going to start on a default.”

Venezuela’s financial report for 2016 stated that roughly $7.7 billion of the remaining $10.5 billion in foreign reserves had been preserved in gold. Last year, in order to fulfill debt obligations, Caracas began shipping gold to Switzerland.

The drastic fall in oil prices in 2014 and widespread corruption have both caused an economic meltdown in the South American country, where citizens had become accustomed to imported goods paid for by fossil fuel revenues.

President Nicolas Maduro has resorted to opening the country’s border with Colombia to allow Venezuelans to purchase necessary medical and day-to-day supplies.

Venezuelan state-run oil company PDVSA’s default is probable, according to the ratings agency Fitch, which cited the oil giant’s weak liquidity position and high amortization scheduled for 2017 as the causes of the default problem last month.

“Should oil prices remain around current levels, average recovery may lead to additional future defaults to further reduce obligations and allow for necessary transfers to the government,” said Fitch’s senior director Lucas Aristizabal.

The company has projected that its oil production will maintain its 23-year-low in 2017.

Fitch Downgrades Japan To A From A+

Fitch Downgrades Japan To A From A+

With the USDJPY’s ascent to 125, 150 and higher having seemingly stalled just under 120, with concerns that the BOJ may not monetize more than 100% of its net debt issuance suddenly surfacing, the BOJ and the Nikkei would take any help they could get. They got just that an hour ago when Fitch downgraded Japan’s credit rating from A+ to A, citing lack of sufficient structural fiscal measures in FY15 budget to replace deferred consumption tax increase.

But don’t panic, Fitch says: it expects Japan’s gross debt to GDP ratio to “stabilize around 250% of GDP in 2020.” Perhaps the fact that Fitch did not predict the complete collapse of the Japanese economy is why the USDJPY spiked then promptly reversed and is trading almost unchanged, the same as Nikkei futures.

See, if Fitch had predicted a stabilization level of 2,500%, then Japanese stocks would be limit up today. Because remember: in the New Normal, only a completely socio-economic collapse and terminal currency devaluation leads to limit up in regional stock markets.

As to what really prompted the downgrade, which the BOJ was hoping would lead to a far more negative reaction for the JPY, here it is:

Full Fitch note:

Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong-27 April 2015: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Japan’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to ‘A’ from ‘A+’.

  •  The issue ratings on Japan’s senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds are also downgraded to ‘A’ from ‘A+’.
  • The Outlooks on the Long-Term IDRs are Stable.
  • The Country Ceiling is downgraded to ‘AA’ from ‘AA+’ and the Short-Term Foreign Currency IDR is downgraded to ‘F1’ from ‘F1+’.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The downgrade of Japan’s IDRs reflects the following key rating drivers:-

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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